Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 01, 2015, 03:04:22 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2010 Elections
| | |-+  How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 Print
Poll
Question: Hows many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
None   -4 (3.5%)
1-4   -2 (1.8%)
5-9   -7 (6.1%)
10-17   -21 (18.4%)
18-22   -23 (20.2%)
23-44   -32 (28.1%)
45 or more   -25 (21.9%)
Show Pie Chart
Total Voters: 112

Author Topic: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?  (Read 27727 times)
CARLHAYDEN
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10655


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

View Profile
« on: November 24, 2009, 05:56:45 am »
Ignore

While its a little early to give firm estimates on the change in the composition of the House of Representatives as a result of the 2010 election, it would be interesting to see if members of this forum are in any way realistic.

So go ahead and vote and discuss.
Logged

Registered in Arizona for Fantasy election purposes.
Franzl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22415
Germany


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: November 24, 2009, 06:09:34 am »
Ignore

I'd guess about 25.
Logged
Small Business Owner of Any Repute
Mr. Moderate
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13591
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #2 on: November 24, 2009, 09:29:02 am »
Ignore

I figure maybe 10 to 17.  Could be a lot higher: Democrats have won a bunch of seats in 2006 and 2008 that they really just have no business holding based on the PVI.
Logged

Mr Moderate at 54/10 is a total joke, he is a horror.

I think it is very possible that Vladimir Putin could be the Antichrist.  That is nothing more than an educated guess on my part.
RIP Robert H Bork
officepark
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9416
Czech Republic


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: November 24, 2009, 09:39:22 am »
Ignore

I'd guess about 25.
Logged

Clearly the solution is to privatize presidential elections.

So, in less than four years, get excited for the 2016 MetLife Financial U Pick The Prez Extravaganza. If you tweet a picture of your completed ballot with the hashtag #ivoted, you could win a trip for two to the inauguration or an iTunes gift card.
nkpatel1279
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1714
United States


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: November 24, 2009, 10:16:37 am »
Ignore

Looking at the seats Democrats picked up in 2006 and won easily in 2008.
1)AZ-5(Mitchell-D)
2)AZ-8(Giffords-D)
3)CA-11(McNerney-D)
4)CO-7(Perlmutter-D)-
5)CT-2(Courtney-D)
6)CT-5(Murphy-D)
7)FL-22(Klein-D)
8)IN-2(Donnelly-D)
9)IN-8(Ellsworth-D)
10)IN-9(Hill-D)
11)IA-1(Braley-D)
12)IA-2(Loesback-D)
13)KY-3(Yarmuth-D)
14)MN-1(Walz-D)
15)NH-1(Shea Porter-D)
16)NY-19(Hall-D)
17)NC-11(Schuler-D)
18)OH-18(Ney-D)
19)PA-4(Altmire-D)
20)PA-8(Murphy-D)
21)PA-10(Carney-D)
22)TX-23(Rodriguez-D)
23)WI-8(Kagan-D)

Seats Democrats won in 2008 and will hold on in 2010.
1)AZ-1(Kirkpatrick-D)
2)CO-4(Markey-D)
3)CT-4(Himes-D)
4)FL-24(Kosmas-D)
5)IL-11(Halverson-D)
6)IL-14(Foster-D)
7)MI-9(Peters-D)
8)NV-3(Titus-D)
9)NM-1(Heinrich-D)
10)NY-13(McMahon-D)
11)NY-25(Maffei-D)
12)NC-8(Kissell-D)
13)OH-16(Boccieri-D)
14)PA-3(Dahlkemper-D)
15)VA-11(Connolly-D)

The seats Democrats are in danger of losing is.
1)AL-2(Bright-D)
2)AL-5(Griffith-D)
3)FL-8(Grayson-D)
4)ID-1(Minnick-D)
5)IA-3(Boswell-D)-
6)KS-3(OPEN-Moore-D)
7)LA-3(OPEN-Melancon-D)
8)MD-1(Kravotil-D)
9)MI-7(Schauer-D)
10)MS-1(Childers-D)
11)NH-2(OPEN-Hodes-D)
12)NJ-3(Adler-D)
13)NM-2(Teague-D)
14)NY-20(Murphy-D)
15)NY-23(Owens-D)
16)NY-24(Arcuri-D)
17)NY-29(Massa-D)
18)OH-1(Driehaus-D)
19)OH-15(Kilroy-D)
20)PA-11(Kanjorski-D)-rematch with Barletta-R.
21)PA-7(OPEN-Sestak-D)
22)VA-2(Nye-D)
23)VA-5(Perriello-D)

Democrats will pick up DE-AL,IL-10,LA-2,and PA-6.

Cuomo-Schumer-Gillibrand coattails will help Murphy,Owens,Arcuri,and Massa.
Lynch-Hodes will help the DEM nominee in NH-2.
Specter/Sestak and Hoefell-as DEM nominee for Governor will help DEMs win PA-6 and PA-7 and PA-11.
Logged
auburntiger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1218
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.61, S: 0.65

View Profile
« Reply #5 on: November 24, 2009, 10:22:06 am »
Ignore

No idea. 20 maybe?? either way, it will be a gain for Republicans across the board.
Logged

Moderate Republican turned Independent.
OC
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11829
United States


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: November 24, 2009, 11:38:43 am »
Ignore

I say 18-22 seats.
Logged
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40101
United States


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: November 24, 2009, 02:48:32 pm »
Ignore

Around 20, maybe a bit less. Of course, guesstimating right now is quite silly.
Logged

Update lives again on Atlas After Dark. PM me for info.
Apollo
MikeP
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 53
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: -1.39

View Profile WWW
« Reply #8 on: November 24, 2009, 06:42:34 pm »
Ignore

i'm thinking around the 18-22 range as well, although a number like 25 wouldn't surprise me much
Logged
Psychic Octopus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9100
United States


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: November 24, 2009, 06:43:42 pm »
Ignore

23-44, but definately on the lower end of that range.
Logged

Marokai Besieged
Marokai Blue
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17259
United States


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: November 24, 2009, 06:43:53 pm »
Ignore

Around 20, maybe a bit less. Of course, guesstimating right now is quite silly.
Logged


Those who shout the loudest about respecting diversity and the culture of others, cannot stir themselves to respect the French enough to learn their language and understand their culture.
JohnnyLongtorso
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6848


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: November 24, 2009, 06:55:05 pm »
Ignore

257 -- Cuomo/Schumer/Gillibrand coattails will save Jose Serrano.
Logged
Mr.Phips
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5052


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: November 25, 2009, 09:56:46 pm »
Ignore

My guess is that Democrats lose everything that they gained in 2008.  That would mean around 20-25 seats. 
Logged
bgwah
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13869
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

View Profile
« Reply #13 on: November 27, 2009, 06:24:16 pm »
Ignore

30-35
Logged

Хahar
Xahar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 39045
Bangladesh


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: November 27, 2009, 08:19:33 pm »
Ignore

I'm thinking 10-15.
Logged

Update reading list

The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
Sbane
sbane
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13775


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: November 27, 2009, 08:31:02 pm »
Ignore

As of right now 20-25 seats and this is probably the best case scenario for them. If they still fail to overcome Republican obstructionism and don't implement their agenda by 2010, expect closer to 40-50 seats to fall.
Logged
Jbrase
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5997
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.16, S: -5.91


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: November 27, 2009, 09:31:55 pm »
Ignore

23-44, but definately on the lower end of that range.
Logged
Vepres
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8088
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.26, S: -7.39

View Profile
« Reply #17 on: November 27, 2009, 09:51:45 pm »
Ignore

30-35 if they pass some sort of healthcare, or a complete bloodbath if they fail to pass reform.
Logged

LOL, Failure

Alright, if Republicans gain less than 75 seats, I'll prominently display my failure in my signature.
Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32032
United States


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: November 28, 2009, 12:04:57 am »
Ignore

5 to 10 if the pass Health Care

15 to 30 if they don't

Unemployement stays above 10% through November 25- 40

There is a double dip recession/Depression 50-100
Logged

He's BACK!!! His Time Has Come Once Again! Now We're All Gonna Die! No One is Safe From His Wrath!



Mr.Phips
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5052


View Profile
« Reply #19 on: November 28, 2009, 01:55:44 am »
Ignore

5 to 10 if the pass Health Care

15 to 30 if they don't

Unemployement stays above 10% through November 25- 40

There is a double dip recession/Depression 50-100

100 seats?  Even in the horrible Democratic years between 1994 and 2006, Democrats never fell below 203 seats. 
Logged
Trump 2016
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 37509
Dominica


View Profile
« Reply #20 on: November 28, 2009, 02:20:30 am »
Ignore

Lose about 20 seats, gain about 5, for a net of around 15.
Logged

THE FRONTRUNNER

○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
jfern
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34116


View Profile
« Reply #21 on: November 28, 2009, 02:22:37 am »
Ignore

5 to 10 if the pass Health Care

15 to 30 if they don't

Unemployement stays above 10% through November 25- 40

There is a double dip recession/Depression 50-100

100 seats?  Even in the horrible Democratic years between 1994 and 2006, Democrats never fell below 203 seats.  

While obviously they don't have most of the blame now, the last time that the Democratic party was blamed for a depression during a midterm election was 1894. Democrats had a truly epic loss, going  from 61% to 26% in that election.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1894
Logged

Dan the Roman
liberalrepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1820
United States


View Profile
« Reply #22 on: November 28, 2009, 01:25:58 pm »
Ignore

5 to 10 if the pass Health Care

15 to 30 if they don't

Unemployement stays above 10% through November 25- 40

There is a double dip recession/Depression 50-100

100 seats?  Even in the horrible Democratic years between 1994 and 2006, Democrats never fell below 203 seats.  

While obviously they don't have most of the blame now, the last time that the Democratic party was blamed for a depression during a midterm election was 1894. Democrats had a truly epic loss, going  from 61% to 26% in that election.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1894


That depression was far worse, and furthermore, the GOP was an acceptable alternative, even in parts of the South at that point(and it was this GOP resurgence among white voters in the south which led to Jim Crow).  The GOP does not even exist in places like Massachusetts and Rhode Island, or in urban seats. The GOP frankly is unlikely to have anywhere near enough serious candidates to win 276 seats. Even if unemployment was at 15%.
Logged
DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18717
Italy


Political Matrix
E: 9.16, S: -3.13

View Profile
« Reply #23 on: November 28, 2009, 05:21:59 pm »
Ignore

30-40
Logged

Gov. Christopher J. Christie
Rowan
RowanBrandon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6710


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70

View Profile
« Reply #24 on: November 28, 2009, 09:35:56 pm »
Ignore

More than you expect.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines