SurveyUSA poll dump FL, PA, NC, AR...

[Sam Spade]

Florida:
Kerry 50, Bush 49

http://surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/FL041018pressen.pdf

Pennsylvania:
Kerry 51, Bush 45

http://surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/PA041018pressen.pdf

North Carolina:
Bush 50, Kerry 47

http://surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/NC041018presgovsen.pdf

Arkansas:
Bush 51, Kerry 46

http://surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/AR041018pressen.pdf

[Pollwatch99]

yuck

[AuH2O]

Stick a fork in Bowles. He's done. Wonder who predicted that.

Note that the first 3 are Kerry friendly by a few points. Arkansas looks about right.

Oh, and good thing I just bet over $500 on Martinez. SUSA has him outpolling Bush.

[Sam Spade]

Just a little friendly advice.  You don't poll in the South on Friday or Saturday in the fall (high school/college football season), IMO.

PA looks right if the Dems were to outshow the Reps at the polls by 4-5 points (in 2000 they were even).

[The Vorlon]

Spector being up only 7% in PA seems a bit off to me.

The last DOZEN Pa Senate races have him up by an average of 20 points.

A 12-15 point shift in a senate race in a week?

Unless Spector and Alan Keyes (Who has "surged" into the 30's in a recent poll ) have teamed up for some joint campaign appearances....

I don't think so

[lonestar]

Ughhhhhhh.

Mr. President....STAY OUT OF NEW JERSEY.   GO TO OHIO and FLORIDA!  Jesus Christ..........

[ATFFL]

The NC numbers seem universally 4-6% better for the Dems than what I have heard coming from the Burr campaign.

[Sam Spade]

Vorlon, I didn't remember SurveyUSA polling on weekends.

Do they usually do this?

I know that Mason-Dixon would never poll in the South on weekends for the reasons I mentioned above.  Hope we can get some polls out of them soon.

[emergingDmajority1]

lookin' good, though I'm worried about Ohio, whenever they release it.

[Alcon]

The Florida internals are also very nice for Kerry. I still think that the election is in play...but this might be a bit close.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Why does Survey USA describe Bowles as the incumbent?   Their first page summary is very confusingly written. 

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Stick a fork in Bowles. He's done. Wonder who predicted that.

Note that the first 3 are Kerry friendly by a few points. Arkansas looks about right.

Oh, and good thing I just bet over $500 on Martinez. SUSA has him outpolling Bush.

Martinez might win, but it would only make up for all the money you're going to lose in New Hampshire.

[The Vorlon]

Vorlon, I didn't remember SurveyUSA polling on weekends.

Do they usually do this?

I know that Mason-Dixon would never poll in the South on weekends for the reasons I mentioned above.  Hope we can get some polls out of them soon.

SUSA does not weight by party ID, but they do weight for everything else under the sun.

In the SUSA view this allows them to poll anywhere, anytime

There is no reason you cannot poll on weekends BTW.

The key is to do thing exactly the same every time and refine things over time as you go along.

Mason-Dixon polls early in the week for example, this is not better or worse than say Thursday to Sunday, it's just that over time they have "tweeked" everything for early in the week

A few more polls for the old fire , let's see what the next batch say

[JNB]

 Off topic, but is there a way you can enlarge your graphs Vorlon?

[Sam Spade]

Thanks, Vorlon.  Didn't know about that with regards to SUSA, was just curious, as they say.  I do know a little about the South, and that's where my concerns were at.

I agree with you.  One more log on the old fire, as they say.

[ATFFL]

 Off topic, but is there a way you can enlarge your graphs Vorlon?

You can copy the image location and paste the URL into your browser and go there.

[The Vorlon]

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I assume that big bump between the 5th-to-last and 4th-to-last data point is Gallup?

[dougrhess]

Man. It's kinda sad to see Bush go down when debates expose him and then he goes up after the debates fade in memory. ;-(

[agcatter]

Not a good batch of polls for Bush.  Vorlon, Bush is in NJ today.  That #@*%# Rove is doing the same damned thing he did in 2000!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  Why doesn't he have his candidate in the #%@&* battleground states!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ROVE IS THE SAME MORON HE WAS IN 2000!!

[J. J.]

Man. It's kinda sad to see Bush go down when debates expose him and then he goes up after the debates fade in memory. ;-(

It's kinda sad to see so many people put such faith in the debates, especially when somebody said it before the debates.  :-)

(I will be even more insufferable if Bush carries NJ.)

[Pollwatch99]

Thanks, Vorlon.  Didn't know about that with regards to SUSA, was just curious, as they say.  I do know a little about the South, and that's where my concerns were at.

I agree with you.  One more log on the old fire, as they say.

This old fire is dying unless we feed it more state polls.

[mypalfish]

Not a good batch of polls for Bush.  Vorlon, Bush is in NJ today.  That #@*%# Rove is doing the same damned thing he did in 2000!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  Why doesn't he have his candidate in the #%@&* battleground states!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ROVE IS THE SAME MORON HE WAS IN 2000!!

I tried to tell everybody that Bush was in big trouble, and these polls ( and Rasmussen's premium state numbers) are telling the story.

[agcatter]

Yep.  And you were right.

What's next Karl?  How about sending Bush to barnstorm Vermont!!

[The Vorlon]

I assume that big bump between the 5th-to-last and 4th-to-last data point is Gallup?

Actually it was the Ipsos Kerry +4 dropping OFF