2010 State Elections in Germany

[Middle-aged Europe]

How do the rank and file in the Green party react to their party propping up the CDU in places like Hamburg and Saar and potentially in NRW??

Old-school Green voters are extremely pissed, of couse. Then again, a lot of them had already stopped voting Green when the party started sending soldiers to Afghanistan. The question "how much voters are we potentially winning/losing with this, and do the gains balance out the losses?" is probably always on the party leadership's mind. The federal party doesn't like to see too many CDU/Green coalitions on the state level for strategic reasons, but certain state chapters are doing it anyway.

The Green party was initially created as a leftwing splinter from the SPD and my impression is that a lot of people who vote Green in Germany are doing so to push the SPD in a certain direction in government and not to help bring in a rightwing government that wants to slash and burn social programs but will wink at the Greens by banning non-energy efficient light bulbs etc...

A lot of people are voting Green because they want to vote Green, not because of the SPD or any other party. Of course, in the current climate a lot of them also vote Green because they think that the SPD sucks and and that the Greens don't consist of a bunch of crybabies and losers who are writhering in self-pity. With up to 17% in the polls, Green is certainly more sexy.

It's doubtful that a CDU/Green coalition in NRW would "slash and burn" that many social programs. Even under the current CDU/FDP coalition, minister-president Jürgen Rüttgers likes to cultivate his image as a left-wing populist and man of the common people. That's certainly a necessity when you are governing a state which has been a SPD stronghold for four decades.

BTW: what happens to the Bundesrat votes from a state if the Greens are part of the ruling coalition? Do those votes then get neutralized and it in effect takes away the CDU/FDP 2/3 majority there that they need to pass a lot things?

As always, the state is forced to abstain in the Bundesrat.

[Tender Branson]

Even though Baden-Württemberg doesn`t have state elections until 2011, there`s a new Infratest dimap poll out for SWR, after the new CDU-governor Stefan Mappus took office about a week ago. He followed Günther Oettinger, who became EU commissioner for something.

It looks like the state CDU benefits slightly from the new governor, gaining about 4% compared with Oettinger-still-in-office polls:

CDU: 43% (-1)
SPD: 20% (-5)
Greens: 17% (+5)
FDP: 11% (nc)
Left: 4% (+1)
Others: 5% (nc)

[Middle-aged Europe]

He followed Günther Oettinger, who became EU commissioner for something.

Energy... but he should have gotten the portfolia for "Multilingualism" as well.

[DL]

A lot of people are voting Green because they want to vote Green, not because of the SPD or any other party. Of course, in the current climate a lot of them also vote Green because they think that the SPD sucks and and that the Greens don't consist of a bunch of crybabies and losers who are writhering in self-pity. With up to 17% in the polls, Green is certainly more sexy.

Fair enough, but unless a person is delusional, they have to know that they are not going to get a Green party majority government and that realistically they are voting to influence the makeup of the next coalition government. If I was German, I would be very tempted to vote Green on the assumption that the bigger the Green slice in the Bundestag, the better the chances that they can form a coalition with the SPD and provide the "best of both worlds" and give us social justice and sensitivity to environmental issues and social liberalism. But I would drop the Green party like a hot potato if i thought they were going to be a fig leaf for a rightwing CDU administration that was going to implement some neocon agenda.

This is the trap the Green party in Ireland fell into when they formed a coalition with the corrupt rightwing Fianna Fail party. Now the polls all show that they will be annhilated in the next election.

[Хahar 🤔]

But, on the other hand, you have got important right-wing Green parties (the Czech party springs to mind).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Fair enough, but unless a person is delusional, they have to know that they are not going to get a Green party majority government and that realistically they are voting to influence the makeup of the next coalition government.

Many of the current hardcore Green voters probably see the Greens as the best option and the SPD as the second-best (or least worst) option. Which means they prefer SPD/Greens over CDU/Greens, but CDU/Greens over CDU/SPD.

Of course there are also voters who would very much like to see SPD/Greens/Left instead and are pissed when it doesn’t come to be. But both the SPD (Thuringia) and the Greens (Saarland) have consciously decided against this option and went for a coalition with the CDU recently.

If I was German, I would be very tempted to vote Green on the assumption that the bigger the Green slice in the Bundestag, the better the chances that they can form a coalition with the SPD and provide the "best of both worlds" and give us social justice and sensitivity to environmental issues and social liberalism. But I would drop the Green party like a hot potato if i thought they were going to be a fig leaf for a rightwing CDU administration that was going to implement some neocon agenda.

Some voters are working on that premise, others don’t. Since clear majorities for CDU/FDP or SPD/Greens have become less common after the emergence of the Left Party, an “every party fights for itself and then it decides which coalition is possible or desirable” attitude has sprung up. Of course, there are voters who have problems with this attitude.

Historically speaking, it hasn’t been the case that people vote for the Greens to make the SPD stronger though. A SPD/Green coalition wasn’t really an option on the federal level from 1983 to 1994 (?). For all intents and purposes, the SPD fought for a CDU/SPD coalition in these elections, while the Greens wanted to become a stronger opposition party. I guess the only elections where a vote for the Greens would have most likely led to a SPD/Green government were 1998, 2002, and 2005 (and in two out of three cases it did).

This is the trap the Green party in Ireland fell into when they formed a coalition with the corrupt rightwing Fianna Fail party. Now the polls all show that they will be annhilated in the next election.

Hasn’t occured so far here. In the 2008 Hamburg election, the Greens won 9.6% of the vote. The most recent poll from Hamburg (12/09) showed them at 11%. In Saarland, they won 5.9% in the election and the first post-election poll (also 12/09) showed them at 7%.

[minionofmidas]

Some voters are working on that premise, others don’t. Since clear majorities for CDU/FDP or SPD/Greens have become less common after the emergence of the Left Party, an “every party fights for itself and then it decides which coalition is possible or desirable” attitude has sprung up.

Among the party activists/careerists.

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Not really true except in 1983. Not entirely untrue either, except maybe for 1994. (Of course, in theory the SPD was fighting for a majority of its own. )

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Seeing where the Greens are in federal polls... and seeing just how much of a "Black-Green likely" discount was factored into those 2008 elections... that's precisely what DL described, to an extent that's not even funny anymore.

We'll see how all this turns out. Currently the Greens are grotesquely high in the polls by appearing the most electable of opposition parties to disgruntled centrist CDU/FDP voters (who really, really ought to have known what they were getting with the FDP, btw. That's the FDP's problem right now. They failed to understand they got votes from people who wanted the SPD gone from government, thought the CDU needed a check, and didn't believe the FDP meant what it said. That is to say, they didn't win because of their confrontational style and extremist program, but in spite of it because, to a certain segment that hadn't voted for them before, they still were the least worst option.) Will these people stick around? I'm sceptical.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, in Hamburg the Greens are now polling at 16% (2008 result: 9.6%). And the CDU is down to 31% (2008: 42.6%). Although the federal trend also plays a huge role here as well. Don't know whether the current debate/crisis over school reform in Hamburg is relevant.

We'll see how all this turns out. Currently the Greens are grotesquely high in the polls by appearing the most electable of opposition parties to disgruntled centrist CDU/FDP voters (who really, really ought to have known what they were getting with the FDP, btw.

It has also been theorized that the Greens' current strength partly stems from disgruntled SPD voters who are not staying home anymore but would vote Green instead (the ones who haven't turned into Left Party voters so far of course).

[minionofmidas]

It has also been theorized that the Greens' current strength partly stems from disgruntled SPD voters who are not staying home anymore but would vote Green instead (the ones who haven't turned into Left Party voters so far of course).

Part of it surely does.

God, I wish German pollsters would produce raw numbers rather than recalculate everything to a hundred. And say between which options people are undecided, of course.

[Hans-im-Glück]

A new Poll for North Rhine-Westphalia (GMS, 25.02.2010)


CDU     39 %
SPD      31 %
GREEN  12 %
FDP        7 %
LEFT       6 %
Others  5 % 

Right   46 %
Left     49 %

Bad news for the CDU/FDP government, but really bad for the FDP. It look like a CDU/GREEN government is possible in May.

[Franzl]

I would really love a CDU/Green coalition.

[Tender Branson]

A new Poll for North Rhine-Westphalia (GMS, 25.02.2010)


CDU     39 %
SPD      31 %
GREEN  12 %
FDP        7 %
LEFT       6 %
Others  5 %  

Right   46 %
Left     49 %

Bad news for the CDU/FDP government, but really bad for the FDP. It look like a CDU/GREEN government is possible in May.

Note that this poll was payed for by the NRW-CDU.

Want to see some independent polls post-Rüttgers-gate ...

[KuntaKinte]

The latest Forsa-poll for North Rhine-Westfalia

CDU: 38 (down 3 since the last Forsa poll in January)
SPD: 34 (+2)
Greens: 11
FDP: 6
Left: 6

For the first time, SPD-Green is in front of CDU-FDP.

[Franzl]

The latest Forsa-poll for North Rhine-Westfalia

CDU: 38 (up 3 since the last Forsa poll in January)
SPD: 34 (+2)
Greens: 11
FDP: 6
Left: 6

For the first time, SPD-Green is in front of CDU-FDP.

Now the SPD should REALLY be hoping the Left misses the 5% mark.

[Tender Branson]

More bad news for the NRW-CDU (latest Infratest dimap poll):

CDU: 35% (-10)
SPD: 33% (-4)
Greens: 13% (+7)
FDP: 10% (+4)
Left: 6% (+3)

NRW-voters also prefer a Red-Green government to the current Black-Yellow government after the elections.

Direct vote for Governor:

Rüttgers (CDU): 44% (-7)
Kraft (SPD): 43% (+5)

[Hans-im-Glück]

Direct vote for Governor:

Rüttgers (CDU): 44% (-7)
Kraft (SPD): 43% (+5)

This are very bad numbers for an incumbent PM . The elections are in may and maybe there gives some changes. but it seems that the CDU want all to do to lose it.

[KuntaKinte]

Hey, that's really good news. Especially the 43:44 for Kraft vs. Rüttgers is much, much more I would have expected some months ago.

I'm just worried if this started a little bit to early. There are two months left, and there will be a government comeback. We need to pressure Rüttgers until the day of the election, and that will be hard.

What's also very positive about the latest poll is that CDU-Grüne is without a majority.

[DL]

Sounds like SPD is going to have to find a way to make it clear to people who are flirting with vote Linke that if the Linke party gets into the legislature - it will likely lead to the CDU staying in power with Green support - and that the only way to get rid of the CDU is by voting SPD!

[Tender Branson]

New YouGov/Bild poll:

SPD: 36% (-1)
CDU: 36% (-9)
Greens: 11% (+5)
Left: 7% (+4)
FDP: 7% (+1)
Others: 3% (nc)

Rüttgers (CDU): 53%
Kraft (SPD): 47%

[minionofmidas]

Sounds like SPD is going to have to find a way to make it clear to people who are flirting with vote Linke that if the Linke party gets into the legislature - it will likely lead to the CDU staying in power with Green support

or SPD support. Which is actually going to be the de facto preferred option of the people most likely to take your advice.
In the long run, that way suicide lies.

[minionofmidas]

Lol:

[DL]

translation please?

[minionofmidas]

Lol:

It's comparing all respondents to FDP voters on the following questions:

"What Westerwelle said about the Welfare State was not new and not very clear."
"I find it good that Westerwelle started a debate about Hartz IV."
"Westerwelle is right that there is too much talk about those receiving Hartz IV and not enough about those who have to pay for it all."
"Westerwelle is trying to win cheap points off the back of the weaker members of society."
"The FDP is a party of social coldness." (literal translation; it's sort of a stock phrase. I think you can about figure it out though.)
"The FDP too cares for the weaker members of society."

[KuntaKinte]

Sounds like SPD is going to have to find a way to make it clear to people who are flirting with vote Linke that if the Linke party gets into the legislature - it will likely lead to the CDU staying in power with Green support

or SPD support. Which is actually going to be the de facto preferred option of the people most likely to take your advice.
In the long run, that way suicide lies.

With the difference that there is a chance that SPD becomes the strongest party. So a grand coalition doesn't necessarily mean that Rüttgers stays in power. A CDU-green coalition does.

[Tender Branson]

The government drops to new lows in the latest Forsa poll:

CDU/CSU: 33% (-1)
SPD: 23% (nc)
Greens: 16% (+5)
Left: 12% (nc)
FDP: 8% (-7)
Others: 8% (+2)

Opposition: 51%
Government: 41%