2010 State Elections in Germany

[Tender Branson]

BTW: WTF are Kopfnoten

These are ratings for cooperation and social behavior

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kopfnoten

Ah thx, then its the German version of the Austrian "Verhaltensnoten" ...

Didn´t even remember that we had this thing in school, because A) I´m out of school for a good amount of time now, and B) we all got "excellent behaviour" all the time ...

[Hans-im-Glück]

The "Kopfnoten" don't exist in every federal State. In Bavaria we haven't this since the early 70s. I looked in my old school certificates (the first is from 1973 ) and there was no grade for behaviour.

[KuntaKinte]

What did NRW have before?

The same system, except that voters just had one vote instead of two.
So until 2005, the vote for the candidate in your constituency meant you simultaneously voted for the candidate's party list. Now you're able to split your vote.

As, I recall, list MPs in Baden-Württemberg are those candidates who came closest to winnig their cosntituency. What do other states do?

You're right about Baden-Württemberg, I like their system.
Almost all the other states do fixed lists as used in the elections to the Bundestag, except Hamburg and Bavaria, that do open lists.

[Franzl]

I'm having massive second thoughts about my original SPD endorsement.....

Anyway...my wahl-o-mat result:

FDP 51
CDU 48
BüSo 43
Grüne 38
Piraten 36
SPD 33
Linke 31
NPD 28

[minionofmidas]

(I gave double value to a majority of questions - anything I consider it important.)

Left 117
SPD 107 (what?)
Greens 104
Pirates 103
PARTEI 96
NPD 63 (wheeee...)
FDP 45
CDU 40

[KuntaKinte]

SPD 74
Left 67
Greens 62
Pirates 62
NPD 49
CDU 40
FDP 36

Except that the NPD should be on the last place, the order is about right.

[minionofmidas]

What did NRW have before?

The same system, except that voters just had one vote instead of two.
So until 2005, the vote for the candidate in your constituency meant you simultaneously voted for the candidate's party list. Now you're able to split your vote.

As, I recall, list MPs in Baden-Württemberg are those candidates who came closest to winnig their cosntituency. What do other states do?

You're right about Baden-Württemberg, I like their system.
Almost all the other states do fixed lists as used in the elections to the Bundestag, except Hamburg and Bavaria, that do open lists.

Bavaria also calculates seat share from constituency and open list votes summed, rather than just the list vote.

Hamburg's new system is pretty complex and looks good on paper, but seems to have had little consequence in practice. They have small (3-5) multi-member open list constituencies (I think you even had several votes) plus a sizable no. of top-up seats on a closed list to make it proportional again.

And of course, Bremen and the Saar only have closed lists. (Bremen has two constituencies, the Saar has three.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Tried translating the Wal-o-mat but the translations sucked, is that first question saying a ban on Sunday shopping should be abolished? Gave up at question 6: "The top notes for students to keep."

[Tender Branson]

Tried translating the Wal-o-mat but the translations sucked, is that first question saying a ban on Sunday shopping should be abolished? Gave up at question 6: "The top notes for students to keep."

Q1 means if you want to abolish sunday shopping.

Q6 means if you want to keep behaviour marks for students.

[minionofmidas]

Tried translating the Wal-o-mat but the translations sucked, is that first question saying a ban on Sunday shopping should be abolished?

No, it's asking if you want to abolish some exceptions to the ban. Not the exemptions for tiny places but the ones for specific sundays.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I think the latest Politbarometer poll from friday had some interesting numbers.

Preference for minister-president
Hannelore Kraft (SPD) 43% (+12% from March)
Jürgen Rüttgers (CDU) 41%

Support for coalitions (yes answers)
SPD/Greens 45%
CDU/SPD 38%
CDU/FDP 29%
CDU/Greens 24%
SPD/Greens/Left 15%

Most important issue
Unemployment 43% (-7%)
Education 39% (+17%)

Most competent party - education
SPD 35%
CDU 26%

Most competent party - unemployment
CDU 30%
SPD 30%


So, provided there's the right turnout for this on election day, will the SPD actually fare better (or the CDU fare worse) than it is anticipated now?

[minionofmidas]

final (I think) election.de constituency prognosis

[Franzl]

I have family up there.....very strongly old-style Catholic CDU voters

My Oma lives in Schermbeck (Kreis Wesel) and My aunt lives in Borken! The latter has some amazing election results usually.

[minionofmidas]

I have lots of family all over the state - in Cologne and her suburbs, in Duisburg, in Moers, in Dortmund, in Soest...

[Tender Branson]

The final polls:

Forsa/Stern

SPD: 37% (nc)
CDU: 37% (-8%)
GRE: 10% (+4%)
FDP: 6% (nc)
LEFT: 5% (+2%)
OTH: 5% (+2%)

Emnid/FDP (meh)

CDU: 37%
SPD: 33%
GRE: 12%
FDP: 8%
LEFT: 5%
OTH: 5%

GMS/Sat 1

CDU: 37%
SPD: 33%
GRE: 12%
FDP: 7%
LEFT: 6%
OTH: 5%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Forsa/Stern

SPD: 37% (nc)
CDU: 37% (-8%)
GRE: 10% (+4%)
FDP: 6% (nc)
LEFT: 5% (+2%)
OTH: 5% (+2%)

If Left gets past 5%: No majority for SPD/Greens or CDU/FDP (although SPD/Greens miss it by only 1% or so).

If Left stays below 5%: Majority for SPD/Greens.

Emnid/FDP (meh)

CDU: 37%
SPD: 33%
GRE: 12%
FDP: 8%
LEFT: 5%
OTH: 5%

If Left gets past 5%: No majority for SPD/Greens or CDU/FDP.

If Left stays below 5%: Exact tie between SPD/Greens and CDU/FDP.

GMS/Sat 1

CDU: 37%
SPD: 33%
GRE: 12%
FDP: 7%
LEFT: 6%
OTH: 5%

If Left gets past 5%: No majority for SPD/Greens or CDU/FDP.

If Left stays below 5%: Extremely thin majority for SPD/Greens.

[Franzl]

I've warmed to the idea of CDU/Green...so I guess the Left getting in would be a good thing this time

[Hans-im-Glück]

My prediction for the NRW-election tomorrow:

CDU   36
SPD   34
Green   12
FDP   6
Left   6

[Franzl]

My prediction for the NRW-election tomorrow:

CDU   36
SPD   34
Green   12
FDP   6
Left   6

Just out of interest....what would you think of schwarz-grün?

[Hans-im-Glück]

I'm not a big fan of schwarz-grün, but I find it better like a grand coalition. But with the Nuclear politics of the CDU I don't see that it works very good. I don't think this coalition holds 5 years.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I'm not a big fan of schwarz-grün, but I find it better like a grand coalition. But with the Nuclear politics of the CDU I don't see that it works very good. I don't think this coalition holds 5 years.

I'd imagine that the CDU would give the Greens anything they want when it comes to nuclear energy. As long as it means they can stay in power, CDU politicians are willing concede a lot here. That's what they did in Saarland anyway. They know that's the price they gotta pay.

[Franzl]

And you see that's the only thing I'm afraid of....that the CDU are willing to agree to the wrong compromises.

[Middle-aged Europe]

And you see that's the only thing I'm afraid of....that the CDU are willing to agree to the wrong compromises.

Like it or not, but that's how it's gonna be: Either a CDU/Green coalition has a clear stance against nuclear energy or there won't be a CDU/Green coalition at all. The Northrhine-Westphalian CDU has these two choices.

The bottomline is that the Greens could perhaps sell a coalition with the CDU to its members/voters. But if it's a coalition which isn't against nuclear energy, they're gonna have a riot on their hands. Knowing that, the Green leadership would probably prefer joining the opposition rather than entering a coalition with the CDU under these circumstances. And the CDU leadership is fully aware of that fact.

[Franzl]

Well if the result is as we expect at this point.....what could be the alternative if the CDU do not agree to those Green demands?

Grand coalition? I suppose a possibility....but for some reason I tend to consider it terribly unlikely in NRW.

[Hans-im-Glück]

And you see that's the only thing I'm afraid of....that the CDU are willing to agree to the wrong compromises.

Like it or not, but that's how it's gonna be: Either a CDU/Green coalition has a clear stance against nuclear energy or there won't be a CDU/Green coalition at all. The Northrhine-Westphalian CDU has these two choices.

The bottomline is that the Greens could perhaps sell a coalition with the CDU to its members/voters. But if it's a coalition which isn't against nuclear energy, they're gonna have a riot on their hands. Knowing that, the Green leadership would probably prefer joining the opposition rather than entering a coalition with the CDU under these circumstances. And the CDU leadership is fully aware of that fact.

I can't say it better. With the Greens in almost every theme it possible for a compromise, but not in the nuclear power.