2010 State Elections in Germany

[Hans-im-Glück]

In Cologne, Essen and Dortmund they are very slowly

[Middle-aged Europe]

Great, in the latest ARD update, the Greens have lost one of their seats to the SPD. Now that doesn't change much... well, except that CDU/Greens doesn't have a majority now either.

[minionofmidas]

Great, in the latest ARD update, the Greens have lost one of their seats to the SPD. Now that doesn't change much...

It makes the medial blackgreen boosters shut up.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Great, in the latest ARD update, the Greens have lost one of their seats to the SPD. Now that doesn't change much...

It makes the medial blackgreen boosters shut up.

Beat me to it.

[Hans-im-Glück]

22:33 (ARD)

CDU   34,6
SPD   34,5
GREEN   12,1
FDP   6,8
LEFT   5,5

No Majority for SPD/Greens

[Hans-im-Glück]

The SPD gains Aachen I

[Hans-im-Glück]

Gütersloh I - Bielefeld III goes from the CDU to the SPD by 8%

[Hans-im-Glück]

22:42 (ARD)

CDU   34,5
SPD   34,5
GREEN   12,1
FDP   6,8
LEFT   5,6

No Majority for SPD/Greens

[DL]

Hopefully if the SPD get even 1 vote more than the CDU in the overall popular vote...Kraft can demand to be premier in a grand coalition.

[minionofmidas]

Almost all that's out now is Dortmund and Cologne. Cologne has a good election website and is obviously going to report en bloc to the state. Presumably the same goes for Dortmund.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hopefully if the SPD get even 1 vote more than the CDU in the overall popular vote...Kraft can demand to be premier in a grand coalition.

I bet if CDU and SPD end up with an equal number of seats, talk about the "Israeli solution" (a CDU premier for 2.5 years and a SPD premier for 2.5 years) will start soon. Whoever of the two had more votes in the end will be very reluctant to go through with this though.

[DL]

I still don't see why the SPD and the Greens can form a government and have the Linke party simply commit to not voting it down.

[DL]

ZDF now projects that the SPD will be 0.1% ahead o the CDU over all. Congrats Premier Kraft!

[Middle-aged Europe]

ARD and ZDF seat projections are now concurrent, so I guess there won't be any changes again.

SPD 67
CDU 67
Greens 23
FDP 13
Left 11

Well, that's it. No SPD/Green or CDU/Green majority. I think CDU/Green/FDP and SPD/Green/FDP were both ruled out by the Greens and the FDP respectivley. This leaves SPD/Green/Left or Grand coalition.

I'm really interested how a Grand coalition would agree on a PM.

[Tender Branson]

Preliminary final result:

CDU: 2.681.736 votes - 34.6% (-10.3%) - 67 seats
SPD: 2.675.536 votes - 34.5% (-2.6%) - 67 seats
GRE: 940.770 votes - 12.1% (+5.9%) - 23 seats
FDP: 522.437 votes - 6.7% (+0.6%) - 13 seats
LEFT: 434.846 votes - 5.6% (+4.7%) - 11 seats

PIRATES: 119.581 votes - 1.5% (+1.5%)
PRO-NRW: 106.932 votes - 1.4% (+1.4%)
Others: 277.487 votes - 3.6% (-1.2%)

Eligible voters: 13.270.933
Total votes cast: 7.872.862
Invalid votes cast: 113.537
Valid votes cast: 7.759.325
Turnout: 59.3% (-3.7%)

http://www.wahlergebnisse.nrw.de/landtagswahlen/2010/aktuell/dateien/a000lw1000.html

[Shilly]

Anyone up for maps.

First, the margins of victory.


And the party-specific maps.

All of these are based on the constituency votes. Feedback is welcome.

[minionofmidas]

Anyone up for maps.

First, the margins of victory.

CDU holds ten seats predicted for the SPD by election.de - northern Recklinghausen, two eastern Mettmann seats, three in Düsseldorf, two in Cologne and two on the Erft; loses two predicted for them in the Märkischer Kreis. To be fair to them, all were in the lightest shade.
Rüttgers' rhinelander accent seems to still appeal?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Monday: SPD and Greens are prepping themselves for a coalition with the Left.

Tuesday: The FDP has signaled its willingness to talk about about a coalition with the SPD and the Greens, provided that these two parties rule out SPD+Green+Left once and for all now. It's unclear whether the FDP is honest about its willingness to form a coalition with SPD and Greens. It's also unclear whether the FDP will be successful in coercing SPD and Greens to call off SPD/Green/Left.

Grand coalition is pushed back for now. As long as the SPD refuses to talk with the CDU, the CDU can't do anything about it.

So, it's either SPD/Greens/Left or SPD/Greens/FDP for the moment.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Those maps are great

[Hans-im-Glück]

I think this is the big chance for red-red-green. The Left can't be so incompetent like the FDP

[Hash]

Isn't the Lippe and Herford a Protestant industrial area?

[CO-OWL]

Isn't the Lippe and Herford a Protestant industrial area?

Yep. Lippe, Herford (and Minden) are the most Protestant areas of NRW, Catholic population is only around 10%. In Herford there are mainly Lutherans, while Lippe is traditionally Reformed Church ("Reformierte"). In this respect Lippe is comparable to Northern Hesse, with a strong SPD vote even in the most rural parts.
Industry is predominantly small and medium-sized enterprises, labour union influence still quite strong.

Hence, former SPD strongholds going back to their "normal" voting behaviour.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But it's quite different from northern Hesse in that the SPD has 'always' been strong throughout the area, while strong SPD support in northern Hesse was limited to the area around Kassel until after the War. Historically the area was mostly textiles, right?

[Tender Branson]

New federal ARD/Infratest dimap poll:

CDU: 32% (-2%)
SPD: 28% (+5%)
GRE: 17% (+6%)
LEFT: 11% (-1%)
FDP: 7% (-8%)
OTH: 5% (nc)

Red-Red-Green: 56% (+10%)
Black-Yellow: 39% (-10%)

[minionofmidas]

But it's quite different from northern Hesse in that the SPD has 'always' been strong throughout the area, while strong SPD support in northern Hesse was limited to the area around Kassel until after the War. Historically the area was mostly textiles, right?

Yeah, and thus an early center of industrialization later bypassed by the second (and in Germany, much more important) Industrial Revolution.
(See also, Krefeld, Wuppertal, Silesia.)