2010 State Elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

Wunsiedel is the only no district so far.

[minionofmidas]

Final result 37.7% turnout
Yes 61.0%
No 39.0%

By RB
Upper Bavaria 40.3% turnout, 60.8% Yes (varying from 70.0 in Ingolstadt to 54.6 in Mühldorf am Inn district - Munich was 61.1)

Lower Bavaria 35.9% turnout, 55.2% Yes (varying from 60.8 in Landshut to 50.4 in Regen district)

Oberpfalz 38.2% turnout, 59.5% Yes (64.4 in Amberg, 54.3 in Cham district)

Upper Franconia 37.1% turnout, 57.9% Yes (70.5 in Bamberg, 48.5 in Wunsiedel district)

Middle Franconia 39.1% turnout, 63.7% Yes (73.0 in Erlangen, 59.1 in Weißenburg - Gunzenhausen district. Nuremberg at 63.4)

Lower Franconia 33.4% turnout, 66.9% Yes (71.7 in Würzburg, 60.9 in Haßberge district)

Swabia 35.1% turnout, 61.3% Yes (67.2 in Lindau district, 57.5 in Donau-Ries district)

The smaller cities have the hugest majorities. There also seems to be an east-west (or rather eastern edge vs anywhere else) divide.

[minionofmidas]

Turnout



Two different results maps

[Hans-im-Glück]

WOW I live in the only pro-smoking friendly district of Bavaria. But this isn't a surprise for me. In the end the smoking ban  supporter win and this is t is the only tat counts.

[Tender Branson]

New Emnid/Bild Smoking Ban Poll:

56% Support Federal Smoking Ban
42% Oppose Federal Smoking Ban

[minionofmidas]

New Emnid/Bild Smoking Ban Poll:

56% Support Federal Smoking Ban
42% Oppose Federal Smoking Ban

the Feds have very little authority in the matter.

No, the German way to do things would be all the state governments agreeing on some principles and then make their own laws... again, except stricter laws and closer to each other than the first time around.

[Tender Branson]

Here´s a new NRW poll by Infratest dimap:

36% (+1.5) SPD
32%  (-2.6) CDU
17% (+4.9) Greens
  6% (+0.4) Left
  5%  (-1.7) FDP
  4%  (-2.5) Others

SPD-Green government: 53%
CDU-FDP-Left opposition: 43%

"Do you think Hannelore Kraft (SPD) will be a good or bad Governor ?"

50% Good
29% Bad

http://www.ad-hoc-news.de/klare-mehrheit-fuer-rot-gruen--/de/News/21467493

[Franzl]

normal for a brand new government, isn't it?

[minionofmidas]

normal for a brand new government, isn't it?

German state governments tend to get unpopular fast, then recover with time.

But this one is brandnew as a government, and there is of course not much of a history of polls this close to the installation of a new government... though this far after the election you'd usually expect the effect.

So, bottom line: The situation is unusual and therefore it's not clear what to compare it with.

[Tender Branson]

New Forsa poll:

CDU/CSU: 31%
SPD: 28%
Greens: 18%
Left: 11%
FDP: 4%
Others: 8%

Government: 35%
Opposition: 57%

Red-Green majority, as the FDP fails to get into parliament because of the 5% treshold.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hannelore Kraft was just elected as state premier on the second ballot.

[minionofmidas]

Straight party line vote. SPD and Greens voting Kraft, CDU and FDP voting "no to all" (with only one declared candidate, so basically yes and no), Left abstaining. First round went the same, but on the first round you need a majority of the Landtag.

[Franzl]

Red-Green majority, as the FDP fails to get into parliament because of the 5% treshold.

Oh the FDP will get in, no doubt in my mind, as there are enough conservative leaning voters (like me) that would vote for them tactically.

[Verily]

Red-Green majority, as the FDP fails to get into parliament because of the 5% treshold.

Oh the FDP will get in, no doubt in my mind, as there are enough conservative leaning voters (like me) that would vote for them tactically.

Problem is that there's also tactical pressure to vote CDU to make sure that they are largest party and lead a potential Grand Coalition, no? (After all, if the FDP gets in, only a Grand Coalition will be viable unless SPD/Green make even further gains.)

[Franzl]

Not wrong...but I'd at least prefer a grand coalition under SPD control to Red-Green at Federal level.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Another one bites the dust... according to media reports, Hamburg mayor Ole von Beust (CDU) plans to announce his resignation on sunday. There's also a referendum on a controversial school reform in Hamburg this sunday. However, in addition to this school reform, Beust seems to be as tired and worn out as Horst Köhler was.

And that's the fourth state premier the CDU loses within two months.

[minionofmidas]

They'll lose the referendum. Sadly, because the bill is what's needed. But the CDU voters are against it, and the SPD voters aren't going to turn out and save von Beust.
This is, of course, before these strange "rumours" (and I say "rumours" rather than rumours because they seem to be lanced by von Beust himself - just trying to paint himself as not resigning because his party turned on him perhaps?)

[Middle-aged Europe]

The interesting question is: Will the CDU/Green coalition survive this or could we even have early elections in Hamburg soon?

SPIEGEL Online reports that Greens are somewhat baffled that they were not informed by Beust about an impending resignation and latest opinion polls showed that a SPD/Green majority would be more likely than a CDU/Green majority at this point.

[Tender Branson]

And that's the fourth state premier the CDU loses within two months.

And the 6th since the start of the CDU/CSU/FDP government.

Thüringen: Dieter Althaus -> Christine Lieberknecht

Baden-Württemberg: Günter Oettinger -> Stefan Mappus

Hessen: Roland Koch -> Volker Bouffier

Nordrhein-Westfalen: Jürgen Rüttgers -> Hannelore Kraft

Niedersachsen: Christian Wulff -> David McAllister

Hamburg: Ole von Beust -> Christoph Ahlhaus

[Tender Branson]

Hamburg Mayor Ole von Beust resigns

Hamburg’s Mayor Ole von Beust  announced his resignation on Sunday afternoon, potentially putting the city's Christian Democratic-Green coalition government at risk after he steps down on August 25.

Beust has been mayor since October 2001, but the rare political alliance of his conservative Christian Democrats  (CDU) and the environmentalist Greens (called the GAL in Hamburg) has only been in power since 2008.

“There is a time for everything, and of course that applies to me too,” he said at a press conference. “And that is why I have decided not to stand for re-election in 2012.”

Beust has led the CDU for four state elections, after three of which the CDU played a part in the government. He said a fifth time around was not necessary.

He said he had already informed Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose conservatives have now lost their sixth state premier over the past year.

Thuringia’s CDU premier Dieter Althaus stepped down last year after a poor election result. He was then followed Günther Oettinger from Baden-Württemberg, who became an EU commissioner. Roland Koch from Hesse recently stepped down, as did Christian Wullf from Lower Saxony, who was made federal president.

Jürgen Rüttgers was voted out of office in North-Rhine Westphalia in May and stepped down last week from his position as caretaker premier after a minority government was formed.

Rumours have been flying around Hamburg for days that Beust’s departure was becoming imminent, so he could have more time for his personal life after nearly a decade in the public eye.

Talk is already turning to who would follow Beust, with Interior Minister Christoph Ahlhaus seemingly the favourite, but Social Minister Dietrich Wersich has also made it known he would like the job. It was reported on Sunday evening that Beust recommended to his party that Ahlhaus be his successor.

The speculation has created uncertainty within the GAL, which was persuaded by the relatively liberal Beust to form the rare coalition with the conservatives.

“The Greens did not make a coalition with the CDU, rather with von Beust,” political scientist Hans Kleinsteuber told the local paper Hamburger Morgenpost over the weekend. “It would be dangerous for both parties should he resign.”

The paper reported on Saturday that many Greens would have difficulty working with Ahlhaus at the head of the state government as he is regarded as a hardliner.

“He would have to radically change his style as mayor,” the paper quoted an anonymous GAL leader saying. “If he were to continue to play the agitator the coalition would fall apart.”

Social Democrats have called for new elections, urging the GAL to leave the coalition. Hamburg SPD leader Olaf Scholz told the Bild am Sonntag newspaper ahead of Beust’s announcement that the people of Hamburg would not accept a new mayor without elections.

http://www.thelocal.de/politics/20100718-28587.html

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, he's gone.

About 500,000 people voted - most of them by mail. (Seems there were fewer day voting precincts than usual available, too.)

Current count: With a third of the vote counted, it's closer than I feared. 54-46 for the status quo proposal, 48-52 against the government proposal.
Something is a binding result if it's got more ayes than nays, more ayes than the other proposal, and ayes from more than 20% of registered voters - and turnout is round about 40, 42 percent, so they'll barely make that.

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, he's gone.

About 500,000 people voted - most of them by mail. (Seems there were fewer day voting precincts than usual available, too.)

Current count: With a third of the vote counted, it's closer than I feared. 54-46 for the status quo proposal, 48-52 against the government proposal.
Something is a binding result if it's got more ayes than nays, more ayes than the other proposal, and ayes from more than 20% of registered voters - and turnout is round about 40, 42 percent, so they'll barely make that.

What is this thing actually about ?

I´ve read that they wanted to change the 4-year elementary school to a 6-year Gesamtschule ? But somehow there are there 2 proposals ? Why´s that ?

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, that and fusing all the "Hauptschulen", "Realschulen" und "Gesamtschulen" into a singel type of school.
So people can also vote for the government proposal, of course, with that possibly getting more votes than the other one. ie partiallyjust  to confuse voters.

[minionofmidas]

Moving further apart.

I see no broken down results, but here's turnout, postals only:



Graphic supposed to link somewhere too, but the link is dead. Scale is missing, but that's basically a Conservative / Poshland map.

[minionofmidas]

Worked now. Turnout was up to 55% in some of those dark areas like around Blankenese, just 20-odd and sometimes less than 20% in the white bits of the map. (And just 10% in Billwerder, but that has only 1400 inhabitants.)


Just noticed why it's moving further apart... all the day vote is in. Although half the precincts counting units are in, only 30% of the vote is.