2010 State Elections in Germany

[DL]

I saw a poll a couple of weeks ago that showed that the SPD and Greens could win a majority and that was BEFORE the Beust resignation. It seems like a no-brainer for the Greens to pull the plug on this government, force and early election and get a Red/Green gov't in Hamburg - that would also further cut down on CDU strength in the Bundesrat.

[minionofmidas]

They are clearly thinking about it. They don't like the CDU designee at all.


We have a final result. Just as I expected when I stopped looking regularly, the gap just got wider and wider and we're now broadly at what I feared would happen (if not worse).
Status Quo proposition 58.0%
Government proposition 45.5%
(lol@the people who vote for both... although if we assume noone voted invalid on both questions, their number is actually quite small.)
~22.5% of reg'd voters for the Status Quo proposition.

[minionofmidas]

Actually, this part:

Yeah, that and fusing all the "Hauptschulen", "Realschulen" und "Gesamtschulen" into a singel type of school.

wasn't part of the vote... although of course it was part of the concept moneyed conservatives railed against.

[minionofmidas]

Moving further apart.

I see no broken down results, but here's turnout, postals only:



Graphic supposed to link somewhere too, but the link is dead. Scale is missing, but that's basically a Conservative / Poshland map.

There are results by borough and by poll (but not by Stadtteil) now. From what I see, the posh areas with the huge turnouts were strongly for the status quo, the apathetic areas were mostly about tied. The Green inner city belt (with mostly middling turnouts) was hugely pro-reform.
The Status Quo proposition passed everywhere, but in Altona borough so did the government one.

[minionofmidas]

And a new low wherein according to Forsa CDU/CSU/FDP/Left have fewer supporters than SPD/Greens and thus even if the FDP were over 5 (as long as the extra votes come from the CDU) there'd be a redgreen majority.
CDU 30 (-1)
FDP 4 (0)
SPD 28 (0)
Greens 19 (+1)
Left 11 (0)
other 8 (0)

Pretty high others... wonder who that is? Also, lol. Greens@19 federally? I wanna see a projection of what that would mean locally now!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Might just be a generic 'f*** you all' thing; we get that here in midterm polls, sometimes.

[minionofmidas]

Also, I wanna see Greens+Left overtake CDU+CSU+FDP. Not far now...

[Tender Branson]

There´s a new Hamburg poll out by the "Hamburger Abendblatt":

41% (+7%) SPD
35%  (-8%) CDU
10%   (nc)   Greens
  6%   (nc)   Left
  4%   (-1)   FDP
  4%   (+2)  Others

Majority for SPD-Greens.

[Lief 🗽]

While these numbers are definitely awesome, and should result in a couple of nice state victories, I don't see any reason why a federal election would be called any time soon. Even if the FDP and CDU have some big disagreements in the next couple of months, the FDP has no incentive to leave the coalition because they might not even make it back to the next Bundestag and Merkel surely won't want to give up being chancellor.

Plus Germany's economy seems to be actually doing pretty well at the moment, and if that keeps up the government's numbers should improve, no?

[minionofmidas]

There´s a new Hamburg poll out by the "Hamburger Abendblatt":

41% (+7%) SPD
35%  (-8%) CDU
10%   (nc)   Greens
  6%   (nc)   Left
  4%   (-1)   FDP
  4%   (+2)  Others

Majority for SPD-Greens.

Note how very low the Greens are polling here. It's the price of black-green.
(Actually, a bit more complex than that. Black-Green also means less incentive for disappointed bourgeois moderates to switch to the Greens. Especially seeing how these same people just voted down the Greens' school proposal.)

[Tender Branson]

2 new polls today:

Forsa

29% CDU/CSU
28% SPD
19% Greens
11% Left
  5% FDP
  8% Others

Government: 34%
Opposition: 58%

Majority for SPD-Greens (47-45).

Emnid

32% CDU/CSU
29% SPD
16% Greens
11% Left
  6% FDP
  6% Others

Government: 38%
Opposition: 56%

No majority for SPD-Greens (45-49).

[Franzl]

Lol, under 30

[Tender Branson]

There´s also a new Infratest Politikforschung poll for the March 2011 Baden-Württemberg elections:

37% (-7)  CDU
25% (nc)  SPD
20% (+8) Greens
  7% (-4)  FDP
  5% (+2) Left
  6% (+1) Others

SPD-Green-Left majority. I can´t remember if the Center-Left has EVER had a majority in that state.

[JoeBrayson]

Are the FDP in the same predicament as the LibDems in the UK with a left-right division within the party. Are the FDP grassroots disaffected by the coalition with the CDU and is there any evidence of their supporters defecting to the SPD or to the left?

[DL]

I'm not German and can't claim to be a know it all about the inner workings of the FDP, but my impression is that even though both the LibDems and the FDP are part of the Liberal and Democratic grouping in the European parliement - they are very very different. The LibDems are seen as a centre left party and are largely descended from the SDP which was an off-shoot from the Labour Party. They have always been seen as being in between the Tories and Labour and a bit closer to Labour at that. The FDP on the other hand is a purely pro-business "party of doctors and dentists". They are seen to be to the RIGHT of the CDU. Back in the 60s and 70s the FDP allied itself with the SPD because they agreed with Brandt's "ostpolitik" and they had a larger "social liberal" wing back then. But over the last 30 years, the FDP has lost virtually all of those social liberals to the Greens or to the SPD and is now very much the party of the far right in Germany. This is why the FDP refuses to even consider a "traffic light" coalition with the SPD and Greens. They are proudly a party of pro-business right and they have enough trouble getting along with the CDU (who they regard as being too wishy-washy) never mind trying to govern with parties that are even further away from them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Slight correction; the LibDems are mostly the successor party to the Liberals and are officially seen as such by the party's leadership.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I'm not German and can't claim to be a know it all about the inner workings of the FDP, but my impression is that even though both the LibDems and the FDP are part of the Liberal and Democratic grouping in the European parliement - they are very very different. The LibDems are seen as a centre left party and are largely descended from the SDP which was an off-shoot from the Labour Party. They have always been seen as being in between the Tories and Labour and a bit closer to Labour at that. The FDP on the other hand is a purely pro-business "party of doctors and dentists". They are seen to be to the RIGHT of the CDU. Back in the 60s and 70s the FDP allied itself with the SPD because they agreed with Brandt's "ostpolitik" and they had a larger "social liberal" wing back then. But over the last 30 years, the FDP has lost virtually all of those social liberals to the Greens or to the SPD and is now very much the party of the far right in Germany. This is why the FDP refuses to even consider a "traffic light" coalition with the SPD and Greens. They are proudly a party of pro-business right and they have enough trouble getting along with the CDU (who they regard as being too wishy-washy) never mind trying to govern with parties that are even further away from them.

Mostly correct I'd say. Actually, the FDP of the 1970s was roughly comparable to the contemporary Liberal Democrats. There was a major turning point when the party switched from a coalition with the SPD to a coalition with the CDU in 1982. As a result, many of the social liberals left the party (and some joined the SPD) that year.

I guess it's possible that 2010 will be for the Liberal Democrats what 1982 was for the FDP... more or less.

[Tender Branson]

New Berlin state elections (2011) poll by Forsa for the "Berliner Zeitung":

27% (+14) Greens
27%   (-4)  SPD
17%   (-4)  CDU
15%  (+2)  Left
  4%   (-4)  FDP
10%   (-4) Others

Direct vote for Mayor:

Renate Künast (Greens): 40%
Klaus Wowereit (SPD-Incumbent): 37%
None of them: 18%

Federal elections:

26% (+6) SPD
24% (+7) Greens
19%  (-1) Left
18%  (-5) CDU
  5%  (-7) FDP
  8%  (nc) Others

http://www.berlinonline.de/berliner-zeitung/berlin/304676/304677.php

[Lief 🗽]

Greens ahead of SDP! That's awesome.

[DL]

What's the makeup of the current coalition in Berlin?

[Tender Branson]

What's the makeup of the current coalition in Berlin?

It´s a SPD-Left coalition with a 76-73 majority.

[minionofmidas]

I'm not German and can't claim to be a know it all about the inner workings of the FDP, but my impression is that even though both the LibDems and the FDP are part of the Liberal and Democratic grouping in the European parliement - they are very very different. The LibDems are seen as a centre left party and are largely descended from the SDP which was an off-shoot from the Labour Party. They have always been seen as being in between the Tories and Labour and a bit closer to Labour at that. The FDP on the other hand is a purely pro-business "party of doctors and dentists". They are seen to be to the RIGHT of the CDU. Back in the 60s and 70s the FDP allied itself with the SPD because they agreed with Brandt's "ostpolitik" and they had a larger "social liberal" wing back then. But over the last 30 years, the FDP has lost virtually all of those social liberals to the Greens or to the SPD and is now very much the party of the far right in Germany. This is why the FDP refuses to even consider a "traffic light" coalition with the SPD and Greens. They are proudly a party of pro-business right and they have enough trouble getting along with the CDU (who they regard as being too wishy-washy) never mind trying to govern with parties that are even further away from them.

More to the libertarian and right of the CDU than just strictly to the right... and most of the left wing quit in one swoop in 1982, but otherwise... yeah, basically.
The issue with traffic light coalitions and Jamaican coalitions is, of course, that there's an odd-one-out party that really isn't doing what its voters sent it to parliament to do and is basically propping up a government of the "enemy". There aren't many votes in doing that.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Berlin state elections (2011) poll by Forsa for the "Berliner Zeitung":

27% (+14) Greens
27%   (-4)  SPD
17%   (-4)  CDU
15%  (+2)  Left
  4%   (-4)  FDP
10%   (-4) Others

Lol

Possible coalitions: Green/SPD, SPD/Green, Green/CDU, SPD/CDU.

I would also like to see a breakdown of those 10% others... in particular the numbers for the Pirate Party, considering that Berlin has been their strongest state (3.4%) in the 2009 federal election.

I'd prefer a Green/SPD/Pirate coalition myself.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Red/Green is the past

Green/Red is the future

[Tender Branson]

New Infratest dimap poll:

31%  (+8)  SPD
31%   (-3)  CDU/CSU
17%  (+6)  Greens
10%   (-2)  Left
  5% (-10)  FDP
  6%  (+1)  Others

48-46 MAJORITY FOR SPD-GREENS.