2010 State Elections in Germany

[DL]

How long before we see a poll showing that Red and Green could form a government in Bavaria as well?? That would a real earthquake...at this rate, by 2013 when the next federal election is held in Germany, the CDU could be out of power in just about every single state!

[Tender Branson]

How long before we see a poll showing that Red and Green could form a government in Bavaria as well?? That would a real earthquake...at this rate, by 2013 when the next federal election is held in Germany, the CDU could be out of power in just about every single state!

Not going to happen ...

BTW: Do the BW Greens already have a PM candidate for the state elections ?

Maybe Silke Krebs (party chair of the BW Greens) ?

[minionofmidas]

Kretschmann.

[Lotuslander]

Also, BW state elections poll by abs Marktforschung for Ulmer City Marketing:

36% (+24) Greens
28%  (-16) CDU
17%    (-8) SPD
  8%    (-3) FDP
  7%   (+4) Left
  4%    (-1) Others

That's a completely bizarre poll. BaWu has always been a strong CDU/FPD state. I surmise that a lot of the Green support is vote parking right now? And anti-CDU/anti-FPD sentiment at the national level as well as some local state factors?

BaWu Green electoral support since 1980:

16.03.1980    5.3%
25.03.1984    8.0%
20.03.1988    7.9%
05.04.1992    9.5%
24.03.1996    12.1%
25.03.2001    7.7%
26.03.2006    11.7%    

[Tender Branson]

New Forsa poll:

29%    (-5)   CDU/CSU
25% (+14)   Greens
23%    (nc)   SPD
12%    (nc)   Left
  4%  (-11)   FDP
  7%   (+2)   Others

Government: 33%
Opposition: 60%

[Hash]

what the f?

[Insula Dei]

If this were to be repeated at a Federal Election, would the greens carry a lot of constituency seats? I seem to recall they have 1 right now (Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg, or something like that?).

Also, the CDU would still outsize it's opponents, whereas the SDP faills to make any gains relative to the 2009 disaster. Would this mean a CDU-Green Cabinet could be on the table?

I'm really starting to get interested and think it's a real shame the next german election is this far away.

[Hans-im-Glück]

If this were to be repeated at a Federal Election, would the greens carry a lot of constituency seats? I seem to recall they have 1 right now (Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg, or something like that?).

Also, the CDU would still outsize it's opponents, whereas the SDP faills to make any gains relative to the 2009 disaster. Would this mean a CDU-Green Cabinet could be on the table?

I'm really starting to get interested and think it's a real shame the next german election is this far away.

This are only pols far away from electionday, but when the result is like it the Greens have the chance to win many constituency seats.

In the moment they have only won Berlin Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg, but they have a chance to win 2-3 seats more in Berlin. In Hamburg I think in 2 constituencies too.

Stuttgart, Munich and Frankfurt is with the Greens 25% nationwide a victory in some districts possible. In every bigger University town they are in a good position.

I don't see a CDU/CSU - Green government on federal level. The differences between them is too great. Particularly in nuclear policy, but not only. with this result I see a Green - SPD or a CDU/CSU - SPD government.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Chill people, Forsa is the only pollster that has the Greens ahead of the SPD so far. And maybe they're just doing it for the headlines it creates.

The other major pollsters (Emnid, Infratest, FGW) show the SPD between 27% and 30% and the Greens between 19% and 22% nationally. However, in Baden-Württemberg and Berlin various pollsters have shown the Greens as second-strongest or even strongest party. So those state-level numbers are a bit more plausible.

And yes, a CDU/Green coalition seems rather unlikely at the moment. The CDU currently does a lot of things which pisses off the Greens and the Greens are responding by attacking the CDU very hard. I guess relations between the two parties haven't been that bad in years.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Btw, election.de's most recent constituency projection (Sept. 25) gave 148 direct seats to the SPD, 132 to CDU/CSU, 16 to the Left Party, and 3 to the Greens (two in Berlin, one in Stuttgart): http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/content.pl?url=/img/poll/btw_wp_100925.html

The two in Berlin are Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg (won by the Greens in 2002, 2005, and 2009), although Ströbele probably won't run next time) and Tempelhof-Schöneberg (Renate Künast's district, although she might not run either if she becomes mayor of Berlin next year. ). Stuttgart I was almost won by Cem Özdemir last time around and with Stuttgart 21 and the Greens' extremely good poll numbers he actually could pull it off right now.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Berlin state election (Infratest, 10/27)

Greens 30%
SPD 22%
CDU 20%
The Left 17%
FDP 3%

Possible coalitions:
Greens/SPD
Greens/CDU
Greens/Left

[Tender Branson]

2 new Infratest dimap polls:

Germany (Federal Elections)



(West & East results)



Approval ratings of important politiciancs:



CDU-Primary for 2013:



Saarland state election

[Tender Branson]

Can someone please explain to me why SPD-voters are most strongly favoring Guttenberg to lead the CDU in the 2013 federal elections ?

If we assume that Guttenberg stays popular with 70%+ approval ratings and takes over as CDU frontrunner, it would mean that the SPD would never have a chance to be 1st - wouldn't it ?

[DL]

Can someone please explain to me why SPD-voters are most strongly favoring Guttenberg to lead the CDU in the 2013 federal elections ?

If we assume that Guttenberg stays popular with 70%+ approval ratings and takes over as CDU frontrunner, it would mean that the SPD would never have a chance to be 1st - wouldn't it ?

The vast majority of people (I estimate about 99%) don't answer these questions thinking strategically. They answer the question at face value. Merkel is the incumbent and is extremely unpopular. SPD supporters (keep in mind this is a poll of VOTERS not of insiders and strategists) would probably say they preferred almost anyone to Merkel simply as an expression of their dissatisfaction with her.

[BenNebbich]

so germany  gets a green & black coalition.

[MaxQue]

so germany  gets a green & black coalition.

No, the two parties hate each other too much right now.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Everybody loves Guttenberg for some reason. He's our JFK: Originates from a wealthy and privileged family with previous involvements in politics, is young and charismatic, has an attractive (and similarly privileged) wife etc. I doubt it would happen though, not in 2013.

A CDU/Green coalition seems unlikely since representatives from both parties are increasingly ruling that option out right now. Commentators have noted that these are the two parties which are currently setting the agenda in Germany... and those are largely opposing agendas. The SPD is just there and takes the role of a bystander. FDP and Left have mostly become irrelevant.

[Franzl]

To be fair though....Guttenberg did start the abolition of conscription, which is a near certainty within the next few months.

He was willing to publicly say it doesn't make sense (which is correct)....but it's something not many CDU or CSU members would have done.

[Middle-aged Europe]

To be fair though....Guttenberg did start the abolition of conscription, which is a near certainty within the next few months.

He was willing to publicly say it doesn't make sense (which is correct)....but it's something not many CDU or CSU members would have done.

However, this hasn't much to do with his popularity. I guess he would be just as popular without the suspension of conscription.

[Franzl]

To be fair though....Guttenberg did start the abolition of conscription, which is a near certainty within the next few months.

He was willing to publicly say it doesn't make sense (which is correct)....but it's something not many CDU or CSU members would have done.

However, this hasn't much to do with his popularity. I guess he would be just as popular without the suspension of conscription.

True. I think his opposition to the Opel bailouts were what fascinated the public, and it's stayed that way ever since.

[DL]

I think I was reading that Guttenberg was considered more of a rightwing purist who appeals to the more conservative elements in the CDU who find Merkel too centrist and wishy-washy. Sounds like he would be the last person who would ever be able to work with the Greens, let alone with the SPD in another "grand coalition".

[Middle-aged Europe]

I think I was reading that Guttenberg was considered more of a rightwing purist who appeals to the more conservative elements in the CDU who find Merkel too centrist and wishy-washy. Sounds like he would be the last person who would ever be able to work with the Greens, let alone with the SPD in another "grand coalition".

Huh, what?

Guttenberg's relatively liberal, for a CSU politican anyway. In any case, you don't exactly appeal to the right wing by abolishing conscription, which was sort of a holy cow for conservatives.

Maybe you confuse him with Roland Koch (who recently left politics and is now chairman of a construction company) or his spritual successor Stefan Mappus (who's only slightly to to left of Darth Vader ).

[Insula Dei]

Won't his CSU-membership hurt him, in that most of the CDU would prefer a CDU leader?
Or Am I completely mistaken?

[minionofmidas]

Everybody loves Guttenberg for some reason.

Not around here... have I really become this isolated along with my self-selected circle of friends? It's not as if everybody just picked up the "oh my god, what an incredibly oily smarmy evil bastard" from everybody else, it's more everybody's first reaction. I suppose he plays well both to olds of either party (like von der Leyen also does) and young consersatives (very unlike von der Leyen).

Conscription was hollowed out to the very edge of constitutional viability before he came along. It's true it's hard to see his predecessor take the jump, but that's more a question of age and style than anything describable as left/right. (Though a "more communitarian vs more libertarian half of the conservative quadrant" argument would also work.)

[Tender Branson]

New Hessen poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen:

32%   (-5) CDU
29%  (+5) SPD
23% ( +9) Greens
  5% (-11) FDP
  4%   (-1) Left
  7%  (+3) Others

Majority for SPD-Greens.

New Hamburg poll by Psephos:

40% (+6) SPD
35%  (-8) CDU
12% (+2) Greens
  6%  (nc) Left
  4%  (-1) FDP
  3% (+1) Others

Majority for SPD-Greens and CDU-Greens.