2010 State Elections in Germany

[Tender Branson]

A Poll for Bavaria (last election 2008)

Infratest dimap (13.01.2010)


CSU              41 %   (43,4 % )
SPD              17 %   (18,6 %)
Greens         15 %    (9,4 %)
FDP              11 %    (8,0 % )
Left                5 %    (4,3 % )
Free Voters    6 %   (10,2 %)
Others            5 %   ( 6,1 %)

Any reason why the SPD is not benefitting from the weakness of the CSU ?

Compared with the 2003 state elections, the CSU dropped 20%, the SPD 3% while the other parties gained (Greens from 8 to 15, FDP from 3 to 11, Left from 0 to 5 and FW from 4 to 6).

[Tender Branson]

3 new federal polls:

Infratest-dimap (22.01.2010)

CDU/CSU     36 %
SPD             25 %
Greens        13 %
Left             11 %
FDP             10 %
Others          5 %

Right     46%
Left       49%

Emnid (20.01.2010)

CDU/CSU     35 %
SPD             24 %
Greens        13 %
Left             11 %
FDP             11 %
Others          6 %

Right     46%
Left       48%

Forsa (20.01.2010)

CDU/CSU     35 %
SPD             21 %
Greens        15 %
Left             11 %
FDP             11 %
Others          7 %

Right     46%
Left       47%

There`s also a new North Rhine-Westphalia state elections poll:

Infratest-dimap/WDR (22.01.2010)

CDU            36 %
SPD             32 %
Greens        12 %
FDP               9 %
Left               6 %
Others          5 %

Right     45%
Left       50%

CDU-FDP         45%
SPD-Greens    44%

[Tender Branson]

NRW / Forsa (03.02.2010)

CDU: 41%
SPD: 32%
Greens: 11%
FDP: 6%
Left: 5%
Others: 5%

Opposition: 48%
Government: 47%

[Tender Branson]

The new Infratest dimap poll for ARD:

CDU/CSU: 36% (+2)
SPD: 26% (+3)
Greens: 15% (+4)
Left: 11% (-1)
FDP: 8% (-7)
Others: 4% (-2)

Opposition: 52%
Government: 44%

[Tender Branson]

What unpopular things did the CDU-FDP do since the election that has hurt them in polls?

If I were polled right now, I would also have to answer "disapprove".

The government has appeared largely incompetent on a variety of things.....but maybe one of the things that sunk them was their stupid tax cut program that a vast majority of the population opposed because we can't afford it.

Add to that the growing hatred of the FDP.

Plus: If I remember it correctly, the CDU/CSU/FDP government also passed a tax-incentive bill for hotel owners recently, but then it was reported that the FDP received a million € donation from a hotel boss just a few hours earlier ...

[Tender Branson]

New Forsa poll:

CDU/CSU:         35% (+1%)
SPD:                 22%  (-1%)
Greens:            17% (+6%)
Left:                 12%    (nc)
FDP:                   7%  (-8%)
Others:              7% (+2%)

Opposition:      51%
Government:    42%

[Tender Branson]

What`s behind the FDP`s slide: Germans do not want their taxes to be lowered and the welfare state being attacked ...

German Foreign Minister Under Pressure over Domestic Rants

Germany's pro-business FDP has struggled to adapt to life in government since it returned to power in 2009 after 11 years in opposition. Now FDP leader Guido Westerwelle is trying to reverse a decline in opinion polls with inflammatory rhetoric about the welfare state. Commentators say the FDP is in a crisis, and that Westerwelle's outbursts aren't helping.

Germany's pro-business Free Democrat Party (FDP), the junior coalition partner in Chancellor Angela Merkel's center-right government, isn't having a good start to 2010. Its opinion poll ratings are sliding ahead of an important regional election in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia in May, it probably won't be able to deliver its main election pledge of cutting taxes in 2011, and its leader, Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle, is being criticized for making inflammatory comments about welfare benefits.

The general view among media commentators and political pundits is that Merkel's new center-right government has botched its first 100 days in office, with constant in-fighting and mixed messages, and that the FDP is largely to blame. One of its pet policies, a cut in value added tax for hotel stays, followed a large donation from a rich hotel owner which exposed the party to accusations that it was just in government to serve its own clientele of well-off business people.

Now Westerwelle, who was preoccupied in the last few months with working his way into the job of Foreign Minister, has returned to the fray of domestic politics in an attempt to boost the party's poll ratings. To do so, he has launched a debate on the welfare state following a court ruling last week mandating that benefits for the long-term unemployed be reviewed.

'Late Roman Decadence'

Westerwelle said calls for an increase in the so-called Hartz IV benefits paid to people unemployed for over 12 months smacked of socialism. "Those who promise the people effortless prosperity encourage late Roman decadence," he wrote in a a guest commentary for conservative newspaper Die Welt last week. "Everyone just talks about benefit recipients but the people who pay for everything hardly get noticed."

People who work, Westerwelle said in a radio interview on Sunday, were increasingly becoming the "idiots of the nation." He said Germany needed a "completely new start for its welfare state" to ensure that people who work get more than people who don't work. "Anything else is socialism," he added.

The opposition center-left Social Democrats and Greens predictably voiced outrage at his remarks, but even Merkel distanced herself from them, with a spokeswoman saying the Chancellor wouldn't have chosen those words. And support from within the FDP was less than effusive.

Yet Westerwelle remained defiant, telling mass circulation Bild in an interview published on Monday: "Everyone has their own style. I want to shape things and that's why I want to tell the public the truth."

Several media commentators say the FDP needs to get its act together.

Center-left Süddeutsche Zeitung writes:

"We really don't need a 'fresh start for the welfare state' just because Guido Westerwelle is in a panic once again. His blabbering about decadence and socialism primarily stems from the fact that Westerwelle, contrary to his nature and contrary to political expedience, was virtually silent on domestic politics in the first weeks of the new government. He was preoccupied with proving to himself and the world that he's up to the job of foreign minister."

"Partly because the reputation of the center-right coalition is almost in tatters, Westerwelle has now returned to domestic politics with guns blazing in his role as governing opposition leader."

"It's true that that there's a debate about how high the basic level of welfare should be. But showering opponents and coalition partners with hostile and sometimes base rhetoric isn't political, it's just polemic. All this shouting wouldn't be so bad if the government was doing a good job in the background. But even parts of the FDP, let alone the CDU, now acknowledge that the botched-up tax cut for hotel stays is an example of how not to govern. That has become a symbol for 100 wasted days."

"The FDP lacks the desire to achieve a common goal in government -- that is evident from the fact that almost no one in the FDP thinks and speaks on behalf of the government, instead they just represent the FDP in government."

Left-wing Die Tageszeitung writes:

"It's clear now that the FDP won't deliver its main promise -- tax cuts. Given the weak economy and collapsing budgets, tax cuts would be completely nonsensical. It would be madness for the conservatives to allow it. So the FDP's crisis comes as no surprise. It was foreseeable that the FDP would disappoint its clientele. It is a kind of overvalued stock that was preprogrammed to slump once investors got a close look at its accounts."

"The astonishing thing isn't this crisis, but how awkardly and hysterically Westerwelle and Co have responded to it. The FDP leader remains on the offensive even after Merkel's public rebuke for his populist remarks on Hartz IV recipients. And there's no one in the FDP who could adopt a different tone or focus attention on a new issue. There's no room in the FDP for an autonomous leadership alongside Westerwelle. That was always clear. But now the party is paying the price for it."

Conservative Die Welt writes:

"It is high time for a debate on the future of the welfare state. Westerwelle isn't talking about a radical dismantling but about more efficiency. Any type of work must make economic sense in this country. This debate should be held without any frothing at the mouth, but also without taboos. The economics and finance experts mustn't let social politicians take sole command in the upcoming Hartz reform."

Center-right Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung writes:

"Those people who want to increase everything, be it social benefits or the minimum wage, will have more questions to asnswer than people who insist that work must be rewarded and no one should be allowed to settle into social dependency. The aim of the Hartz reform must surely be to get as many people as possible back to work, and at adequate rates of pay."

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,677930,00.html

[Tender Branson]

Even though Baden-Württemberg doesn`t have state elections until 2011, there`s a new Infratest dimap poll out for SWR, after the new CDU-governor Stefan Mappus took office about a week ago. He followed Günther Oettinger, who became EU commissioner for something.

It looks like the state CDU benefits slightly from the new governor, gaining about 4% compared with Oettinger-still-in-office polls:

CDU: 43% (-1)
SPD: 20% (-5)
Greens: 17% (+5)
FDP: 11% (nc)
Left: 4% (+1)
Others: 5% (nc)

[Tender Branson]

A new Poll for North Rhine-Westphalia (GMS, 25.02.2010)


CDU     39 %
SPD      31 %
GREEN  12 %
FDP        7 %
LEFT       6 %
Others  5 %  

Right   46 %
Left     49 %

Bad news for the CDU/FDP government, but really bad for the FDP. It look like a CDU/GREEN government is possible in May.

Note that this poll was payed for by the NRW-CDU.

Want to see some independent polls post-Rüttgers-gate ...

[Tender Branson]

More bad news for the NRW-CDU (latest Infratest dimap poll):

CDU: 35% (-10)
SPD: 33% (-4)
Greens: 13% (+7)
FDP: 10% (+4)
Left: 6% (+3)

NRW-voters also prefer a Red-Green government to the current Black-Yellow government after the elections.

Direct vote for Governor:

Rüttgers (CDU): 44% (-7)
Kraft (SPD): 43% (+5)

[Tender Branson]

New YouGov/Bild poll:

SPD: 36% (-1)
CDU: 36% (-9)
Greens: 11% (+5)
Left: 7% (+4)
FDP: 7% (+1)
Others: 3% (nc)

Rüttgers (CDU): 53%
Kraft (SPD): 47%

[Tender Branson]

The government drops to new lows in the latest Forsa poll:

CDU/CSU: 33% (-1)
SPD: 23% (nc)
Greens: 16% (+5)
Left: 12% (nc)
FDP: 8% (-7)
Others: 8% (+2)

Opposition: 51%
Government: 41%

[Tender Branson]

My endorsement goes to the SPD here. Schocking, isn't it?

Yeah, that's really shocking

Why Genosse Franzl?

Probably has to do with the fact that Hannelore Kraft wants to give the long-time unemployed Hartz-4 receivers a chance by encouraging them to do some community work and therefore making it easier for them to find real work, rather than do it Westerwelle-style and forcing them to do the work.

Or is it something else ?

[Tender Branson]

New NRW poll by infratest dimap for WDR:

[Tender Branson]

The latest polls have the SPD gaining a bit again.

FGW for ZDF:

CDU: 35.0%
SPD: 33.5%
GRE: 11.0%
FDP: 8.5%
LEFT: 6.0%
PIR: 3.0%
OTH: 3.0%

Infratest for ARD:

CDU: 37.5%
SPD: 33.0%
GRE: 12.0%
FDP: 7.5%
LEFT: 5.5%
OTH: 4.5%

Forsa for Stern:

CDU: 39%
SPD: 33%
GRE: 10%
FDP: 7%
LEFT: 6%
OTH: 5%

I guess only a SPD-Green-Left coalition is theoretically possible, which again is practically impossible ...

[Tender Branson]

What did NRW have before?

NRW currently has a CDU-FDP coalition with 101 out of 187 seats and before that NRW was a SPD stronghold.

This was the 2005 election map:

[Tender Branson]

My Result (total 96 Points):

LEFT   69
GREENS   68
SPD   66
PIRATES   55
NPD   52
CDU   37
FDP   33

BTW: WTF are Kopfnoten

[Tender Branson]

BTW: WTF are Kopfnoten

These are ratings for cooperation and social behavior

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kopfnoten

Ah thx, then its the German version of the Austrian "Verhaltensnoten" ...

Didn´t even remember that we had this thing in school, because A) I´m out of school for a good amount of time now, and B) we all got "excellent behaviour" all the time ...

[Tender Branson]

Tried translating the Wal-o-mat but the translations sucked, is that first question saying a ban on Sunday shopping should be abolished? Gave up at question 6: "The top notes for students to keep."

Q1 means if you want to abolish sunday shopping.

Q6 means if you want to keep behaviour marks for students.

[Tender Branson]

The final polls:

Forsa/Stern

SPD: 37% (nc)
CDU: 37% (-8%)
GRE: 10% (+4%)
FDP: 6% (nc)
LEFT: 5% (+2%)
OTH: 5% (+2%)

Emnid/FDP (meh)

CDU: 37%
SPD: 33%
GRE: 12%
FDP: 8%
LEFT: 5%
OTH: 5%

GMS/Sat 1

CDU: 37%
SPD: 33%
GRE: 12%
FDP: 7%
LEFT: 6%
OTH: 5%

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

SPD: 36.5%
CDU: 36.1%
GRE: 10.2%
FDP: 6.7%
LEFT: 5.1%
PIR: 2.3%
NAZIS (NPD/REP/ProNRW): 2.1%
Others: 1.0%

Turnout: ~ 65% (8.6 Mio. votes)

Coalition emerging: SPD-CDU

[Tender Branson]

German voters poised to punish Merkel party over Greece

By Deborah Cole (AFP)



Left = Hannelore Kraft (SPD), Right = Prime Minister Jürgen Rüttgers (CDU)

BERLIN — Voters in Germany's most populous state go to the polls Sunday with Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives fearing a popular backlash over a colossal emergency bail-out for Greece.

Just two days after the German parliament approved the loan package, the 13.5 million voters in the western region of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) will be electing a new legislature.

Polling stations open at 0600 GMT and are due to close at 1600 GMT, when exit polls will be released.

The timing could hardly be worse for Merkel's Christian Democrats, who have ruled NRW in an alliance with the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) since 2005, and a defeat could also cost her her majority in the upper house of parliament.

Most Germans oppose the 22.4 billion euros (28.6 billion dollars) in loans over three years to debt-wracked Greece as Germany grapples with its own dire fiscal straits.

NRW is ruled by the same centre-right coalition with Merkel has in Berlin, making the poll a potentially damaging referendum on her government eight months after she won re-election.

The state is also home to the Ruhr rust belt region whose economic misery has deepened in the recession.

A poll published Saturday showed that 21 percent of NRW voters said the Greek bailout would affect their ballot decision, according to the YouGov survey for the daily Bild.

"The issue has electrified people as seldom before and is going to play a determining role" in the election, said Klaus-Peter Schoeppner, head of the polling institute Emnid, in the online edition of the Rheinische Post.

Underlining the poll's importance, Merkel scheduled 15 personal appearances in NRW and staged a media blitz this week to defend the aid to Greece.

But the chancellor has also faced criticism in Germany and abroad of dragging her feet over aid to Greece and thereby exacerbating the crisis.

After months of falling popularity, the five-year-old centre-right coalition in the state could win 43 to 45 percent of the vote, according to polls.

The rival Social Democrats (SPD), who held power in the state for four decades until 2005, and their preferred partners, the Greens, are scoring between 45 and 47 percent.

The SPD abstained in Friday's vote on the Greek loan package, a tactical move that analysts said could pay off in NRW.

Beyond control of the NRW state legislature, the dominance of Merkel's coalition in the Bundesrat upper house also hangs in the balance.

Currently, the conservatives and the FDP hold 37 of the 69 seats in the Bundesrat, just over the 35 votes needed for an absolute majority. Losing NRW would deprive the centre-right of six seats.

That would effectively axe a drive by the FDP to cut income taxes by 16 billion euros from 2012 -- a move many conservatives, and many voters, oppose as fiscally irresponsible in light of Germany's parlous public finances.

It would also give the centre-left the power to block health care reforms planned by the coalition, and to restore an initiative to mothball the country's nuclear reactors against the wishes of the Merkel government.

The vote's impact would be long-lasting as well as it is the only state election planned this year.

Political scientist Gerd Langguth of the University of Bonn said it was difficult to exaggerate importance of the election for the German political landscape.

"For months, federal politics has been nearly at a standstill because all decisions have been taken with a view to this election, or postponed until after it takes place," he said.

"North Rhine-Westphalia has always been, historically speaking, a seismograph for national politics."

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hKrHsUVz15PnElg-s7gU7PeZ45zQ

[Tender Branson]

WDR`s coalition of SPD and CDU:

[Tender Branson]

Live Stream from N-TV:

http://www.n-tv.de/mediathek/livestream

Exit Poll in 1 minute.

[Tender Branson]

Happy faces at the SPD headquarters ...