2010 State Elections in Germany

[Hans-im-Glück]

I think for the new year we should start a new topic.

Election Calendar:
 
9th of May State elections in North Rhine-Westphalia

When it gives no early election, then this is the only one in 2010. This one is a very important, because NRW is the most populous federal State of Germany.

[Hans-im-Glück]

The first poll in Germany since the elections in September with the CDU / CSU - FDP has no majority. It's no surprise for me. The last weeks were a complete chaos in the government.

Infratest-dimap  (11.12.2009)
 
CDU/CSU      35 %
SPD      24 %
FDP      12 %
DIE LINKE      11 %
GRÜNE      14 %
Others      4 %

[Hans-im-Glück]

The first Polls in Germany in this year.

Infratest dimap (07.01.2010)

CDU/CSU  36 %
SPD          25 %
Greens     12 %
FDP          11 %
Left          10 %
Others       6 %

Right   47%
Left     47%

Forsa (13.01.2010)

CDU/CSU  35 % 
SPD           22 % 
Greens      14 %
FDP           10 %
Left           11 %
Others        8 %

Right   45%
Left     47%

Emnid (13.01.2010)

CDU/CSU  34 %   
SPD           23 %
Greens      13 %
FDP           12 %
Left           12 %
Others        6 %

Right   46%
Left     48%

A Poll for Bavaria (last election 2008)

Infratest dimap (13.01.2010)


CSU              41 %   (43,4 % )
SPD              17 %   (18,6 %)
Greens         15 %    (9,4 %)
FDP              11 %    (8,0 % )
Left                5 %    (4,3 % )
Free Voters    6 %   (10,2 %)
Others            5 %   ( 6,1 %)

[Hans-im-Glück]

A Poll for Bavaria (last election 2008)

Infratest dimap (13.01.2010)


CSU              41 %   (43,4 % )
SPD              17 %   (18,6 %)
Greens         15 %    (9,4 %)
FDP              11 %    (8,0 % )
Left                5 %    (4,3 % )
Free Voters    6 %   (10,2 %)
Others            5 %   ( 6,1 %)

Any reason why the SPD is not benefitting from the weakness of the CSU ?

Compared with the 2003 state elections, the CSU dropped 20%, the SPD 3% while the other parties gained (Greens from 8 to 15, FDP from 3 to 11, Left from 0 to 5 and FW from 4 to 6).

The staff of the SPD in Bavaria is really not good. In many parts of the federal state, the party is not present (especially in the south). The greens may even benefit more from the weakness of the CSU. They seem more modern than the SPD and its chairman, Sepp Daxenberger is very popular. The voters of the left all come from the SPD. They are mostly trade unionists who are disappointed by the SPD.

The SPD has only one chance in Bavaria, where the staff is better and offers a real alternative to the CSU policy.

The mayor of Munich, Christian Ude, is the only popular politician of the SPD, but he'll never run for parliament. He is rather the king of Munich, than opposition leader in parliament.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Daxenberger is great. (Yeah yeah, he's probably moderate as hell, but he's great. A craftsman from some village near Berchtesgaden originally. Besides, I'm dead drunk.)

Daxenberger is from Waging am See in the district of Traunstein. That is north of Berchtesgaden. He worked as a farmer and a blacksmith. From 1996 he was 6 years Mayor of his village. He was the first mayor of the Greens in Bavaria. For me he is too moderate and too Bavarian, but he is really great. I have never found someone who doesn't like him.

[Hans-im-Glück]

New Polls in Germany

Germany total:

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (15.01.2010)

CDU/CSU    36 % 
SPD             25 %
Greens        12 %
FDP             11 %
Left             11 %
Others          5 %

Right     47%
Left       48%


For the federal state of Lower Saxony (Hanover)

Infratest dimap (15.01.2010) (compared with the last election January 2008)

CDU/CSU     41 %  (42,5 %)   
SPD             29 %  (30,3 %)
Greens        11 %   (8,0 %)
FDP               9 %    (8,2 %)
Left               6 %    (7,1 %)
Others          4 %    (3,9 %)

Right     50 %
Left       46 %

No big difference to the last election in Lower Saxony. This is no surprise. The Governor, Christian Wulff, is very popular there.

[Hans-im-Glück]

A new poll for Germany

GMS (Gesellschaft für Markt- und Sozialforschung) (19.01.2010)

CDU/CSU    35 % 
SPD             24 %
Greens        14 %
FDP             11 %
Left             11 %
Others          5 %

Right     46%
Left       49%


A new poll for North Rhine-Westphalia (next election is 9th May this year)

Forsa (19.01.2010) (compared with the last election May 2005)

CDU/CSU    42 %    (44,8 % )
SPD             31 %   (37,1 %)
Greens        11 %     (6,2 %)
FDP               6 %     (6,2 %)
Left               5 %     (3,1 %)
Others          5 %     (2,6 %)

Right     48%
Left       47%

A better result for the CDU/FDP in NRW than in Germany total. Very curious.

[Hans-im-Glück]

3 new federal polls:

Allensbach (27.01.2010)

CDU/CSU     34.5 %
SPD             25 %
Greens        11.5 %
FDP             13 %
Left             11 %
Others          5 %

Right     47.5%
Left       47.5%

Emnid (27.01.2010)

CDU/CSU     35 %
SPD             24 %
Greens        13 %
FDP             10 %
Left             12 %
Others          6 %

Right     45%
Left       49%

Forsa (27.01.2010)

CDU/CSU     36 %
SPD             21 %
Greens        16 % 
FDP               9 % 
Left             11 %
Others          7 %

Right     45%
Left       48%

[Hans-im-Glück]

2 new federal polls:

Forsa (10.02.2010)

CDU/CSU     34 %
SPD             22 %
Greens        17 % 
FDP               8 %
Left             11 %
Others          8 %

Right     42 %
Left       50 %

Emnid (10.02.2010)

CDU/CSU     36 %
SPD             25 %
Greens        14 %
FDP               9 %
Left             11 %
Others          5 %

Right     45 %
Left       50 %

The Greens are still in a all-time-high in the polls. The SPD is still in the low twenties. The bad work of the government has consequences, but mainly for the FDP.

[Hans-im-Glück]

What unpopular things did the CDU-FDP do since the election that has hurt them in polls?

In short words. They do nothing. The FDP made great promise, but they do not so much. Their ministers look like trainees. In the CDU everybody says something different. The CSU don't know what they wants. "Afghanistan" is the ever more unpopular. The government debt is at record levels, the cities are broke and the CDU and FDP argue over tax relief.

And there is more.....

[Hans-im-Glück]

A new Poll for North Rhine-Westphalia (GMS, 25.02.2010)


CDU     39 %
SPD      31 %
GREEN  12 %
FDP        7 %
LEFT       6 %
Others  5 % 

Right   46 %
Left     49 %

Bad news for the CDU/FDP government, but really bad for the FDP. It look like a CDU/GREEN government is possible in May.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Direct vote for Governor:

Rüttgers (CDU): 44% (-7)
Kraft (SPD): 43% (+5)

This are very bad numbers for an incumbent PM . The elections are in may and maybe there gives some changes. but it seems that the CDU want all to do to lose it.

[Hans-im-Glück]

My endorsement goes to the SPD here. Schocking, isn't it?

Yeah, that's really shocking

Why Genosse Franzl?

[Hans-im-Glück]

New poll for NRW (Emnid 12.03.2010)

CDU: 37%
SPD: 33%
Greens: 12%
FDP: 8%
Left: 7%
Others: 3%

Right: 45%
Left: 52%

Possible Governments with this result is CDU/Green or CDU/SPD

[Hans-im-Glück]

A new poll for Germany and the CDU/CSU/FDP coalition is in a all-time-low.

Forsa 24.03.2010

CDU: 32%
SPD: 25%
Greens: 15%
FDP: 8%
Left: 12%
Others: 8%

Right: 40% 
Left: 52%

56% of all Germans want the Great Coalition back and 45% of the CDU/CSU voters think a coalition with the SPD would be better.

[Hans-im-Glück]

The Wahl-o-mat for NRW is online. I don't see a english version. It's only in German.

My Result (total 92 Points):

LEFT   78
GREEN   72
SPD   72
Piraten   64
NPD   51
CDU   34
FDP   30

[Hans-im-Glück]

BTW: WTF are Kopfnoten

These are ratings for cooperation and social behavior

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kopfnoten

[Hans-im-Glück]

The "Kopfnoten" don't exist in every federal State. In Bavaria we haven't this since the early 70s. I looked in my old school certificates (the first is from 1973 ) and there was no grade for behaviour.

[Hans-im-Glück]

My prediction for the NRW-election tomorrow:

CDU   36
SPD   34
Green   12
FDP   6
Left   6

[Hans-im-Glück]

I'm not a big fan of schwarz-grün, but I find it better like a grand coalition. But with the Nuclear politics of the CDU I don't see that it works very good. I don't think this coalition holds 5 years.

[Hans-im-Glück]

And you see that's the only thing I'm afraid of....that the CDU are willing to agree to the wrong compromises.

Like it or not, but that's how it's gonna be: Either a CDU/Green coalition has a clear stance against nuclear energy or there won't be a CDU/Green coalition at all. The Northrhine-Westphalian CDU has these two choices.

The bottomline is that the Greens could perhaps sell a coalition with the CDU to its members/voters. But if it's a coalition which isn't against nuclear energy, they're gonna have a riot on their hands. Knowing that, the Green leadership would probably prefer joining the opposition rather than entering a coalition with the CDU under these circumstances. And the CDU leadership is fully aware of that fact.

I can't say it better. With the Greens in almost every theme it possible for a compromise, but not in the nuclear power.

[Hans-im-Glück]

WDR`s coalition of SPD and CDU:

[Hans-im-Glück]

Exit Polls for NRW:

18:00 (ARD)

CDU   34,5
SPD   34,5
GREEN   12,5
FDP   6,5
LEFT   6,0

18:00 (ZDF)

CDU   34
SPD   35
GREEN  12,5
FDP   6,5
LEFT   5,5

[Hans-im-Glück]

The ZDF see a Red-green majority

[Hans-im-Glück]

18:12 (ARD)

CDU   34,3
SPD   34,4
GREEN   12,5
FDP   6,6
LEFT   6,0