2010 State Elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

Daxenberger is great. (Yeah yeah, he's probably moderate as hell, but he's great. A craftsman from some village near Berchtesgaden originally. Besides, I'm dead drunk.)

[minionofmidas]

Indeed. The common joke is "I always knew the FDP was for hire, but I'd have never guessed their that cheap."

[minionofmidas]

Some voters are working on that premise, others don’t. Since clear majorities for CDU/FDP or SPD/Greens have become less common after the emergence of the Left Party, an “every party fights for itself and then it decides which coalition is possible or desirable” attitude has sprung up.

Among the party activists/careerists.

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Not really true except in 1983. Not entirely untrue either, except maybe for 1994. (Of course, in theory the SPD was fighting for a majority of its own. )

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Seeing where the Greens are in federal polls... and seeing just how much of a "Black-Green likely" discount was factored into those 2008 elections... that's precisely what DL described, to an extent that's not even funny anymore.

We'll see how all this turns out. Currently the Greens are grotesquely high in the polls by appearing the most electable of opposition parties to disgruntled centrist CDU/FDP voters (who really, really ought to have known what they were getting with the FDP, btw. That's the FDP's problem right now. They failed to understand they got votes from people who wanted the SPD gone from government, thought the CDU needed a check, and didn't believe the FDP meant what it said. That is to say, they didn't win because of their confrontational style and extremist program, but in spite of it because, to a certain segment that hadn't voted for them before, they still were the least worst option.) Will these people stick around? I'm sceptical.

[minionofmidas]

It has also been theorized that the Greens' current strength partly stems from disgruntled SPD voters who are not staying home anymore but would vote Green instead (the ones who haven't turned into Left Party voters so far of course).

Part of it surely does.

God, I wish German pollsters would produce raw numbers rather than recalculate everything to a hundred. And say between which options people are undecided, of course.

[minionofmidas]

Sounds like SPD is going to have to find a way to make it clear to people who are flirting with vote Linke that if the Linke party gets into the legislature - it will likely lead to the CDU staying in power with Green support

or SPD support. Which is actually going to be the de facto preferred option of the people most likely to take your advice.
In the long run, that way suicide lies.

[minionofmidas]

Lol:

[minionofmidas]

Lol:

It's comparing all respondents to FDP voters on the following questions:

"What Westerwelle said about the Welfare State was not new and not very clear."
"I find it good that Westerwelle started a debate about Hartz IV."
"Westerwelle is right that there is too much talk about those receiving Hartz IV and not enough about those who have to pay for it all."
"Westerwelle is trying to win cheap points off the back of the weaker members of society."
"The FDP is a party of social coldness." (literal translation; it's sort of a stock phrase. I think you can about figure it out though.)
"The FDP too cares for the weaker members of society."

[minionofmidas]

Not much movement.

I only recently noticed that NRW has switched over to German standard two votes system. While keeping the number of single member constituencies relatively high.
Overhang mandates here we come. (Though perhaps not this year, seeing how close CDU and SPD are.)

[minionofmidas]

Overhang mandates here we come. (Though perhaps not this year, seeing how close CDU and SPD are.)

The overhang mandates would be compensated anyway. The only result would be a bloated Landtag.

Yes, I know that.
Of course, the whole point is affirmative action for the FDP (oh, and the Greens and the Left too, to a lesser extent.)

As long as you're going to do fixed lists anyways, a single vote is more democratic than two votes, which are basically a way of pressganging people into tactical votes that don't *exactly* reflect their wishes.
That makes 11 states plus the Bundestag with the same bullsh!t. Gimme open lists.

[minionofmidas]

Of course, the whole point is affirmative action for the FDP (oh, and the Greens and the Left too, to a lesser extent.)

As long as you're going to do fixed lists anyways, a single vote is more democratic than two votes, which are basically a way of pressganging people into tactical votes that don't *exactly* reflect their wishes.

I completely agree.

Gimme open lists.

Yes, though I think in a large state like NRW you should 'regionalize' the lists, to avoid a ballot with hundreds of candidates.

Absolutely.

[minionofmidas]

(I gave double value to a majority of questions - anything I consider it important.)

Left 117
SPD 107 (what?)
Greens 104
Pirates 103
PARTEI 96
NPD 63 (wheeee...)
FDP 45
CDU 40

[minionofmidas]

What did NRW have before?

The same system, except that voters just had one vote instead of two.
So until 2005, the vote for the candidate in your constituency meant you simultaneously voted for the candidate's party list. Now you're able to split your vote.

As, I recall, list MPs in Baden-Württemberg are those candidates who came closest to winnig their cosntituency. What do other states do?

You're right about Baden-Württemberg, I like their system.
Almost all the other states do fixed lists as used in the elections to the Bundestag, except Hamburg and Bavaria, that do open lists.

Bavaria also calculates seat share from constituency and open list votes summed, rather than just the list vote.

Hamburg's new system is pretty complex and looks good on paper, but seems to have had little consequence in practice. They have small (3-5) multi-member open list constituencies (I think you even had several votes) plus a sizable no. of top-up seats on a closed list to make it proportional again.

And of course, Bremen and the Saar only have closed lists. (Bremen has two constituencies, the Saar has three.)

[minionofmidas]

Tried translating the Wal-o-mat but the translations sucked, is that first question saying a ban on Sunday shopping should be abolished?

No, it's asking if you want to abolish some exceptions to the ban. Not the exemptions for tiny places but the ones for specific sundays.

[minionofmidas]

final (I think) election.de constituency prognosis

[minionofmidas]

I have lots of family all over the state - in Cologne and her suburbs, in Duisburg, in Moers, in Dortmund, in Soest...

[minionofmidas]

Would the Greens ever form a coalition with the CDU if the math was also there for a SPD/Green majority?

On a local level, after an SPD/Green coalition just broke down. Otherwise, no (though the NRW SPD is hard to govern with. Lots of concretehead old right types.)

[minionofmidas]

Just heard a rumour on WDR that the Greens may have taken the central Cologne direct seat.

[minionofmidas]

RECOUNT!!!

Haha. Was there even a Hessen recount in 2008 ?

Certainly not a recount in the British or American sense. They do a sort of canvass of suspicious results (although I've noticed some obvious howlers in final precinct results over the years ) and it happens from time to time that these actually lead to a change of a seat or so.

[minionofmidas]

Hilarious cliffhanger.

[minionofmidas]

The CDU held all four in Düsseldorf. That is not as it should be.
In fact the city barely swung, with the SPD dropping back almost as much as the CDU.

[minionofmidas]

Re what I said about Cologne... constituency design makes it impossible. The Greens are ahead on the list vote in the Central borough, and not far behind the SPD in the direct vote either, but it's not a constituency. It's split between two constituencies and both are outside Green reach.

[minionofmidas]

Results are really streaming in now.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah; I was getting the same feeling from the constituency results. Though it was wholly unscientific o/c.

The gap between rural and urban swings is hilarious. I wonder how much of it is just restoration of normal service though - the 2005 election was something of a freak result.

[minionofmidas]

CDU-Left swing voters certainly exist, yes. They aren't common but they do exist.

[minionofmidas]

Aachen III by about 3%

Which is actually the suburbs north of the city.