2010 State Elections in Germany

[Franzl]

It's also rather important because of the composition of the Bundesrat.

[Franzl]

Isn't it amazing how polarized the German electorate is?

[Franzl]

Isn't it amazing how polarized the German electorate is?

The German electorate is very polarized, but isn't it in most western democracies nowadays? The US, the UK, France, Italy?

I could be wrong, but I get the impression that Germany has even less "swing voters" than most countries.

Seems like the left and right coalitions can never go under 46 or above 49.

Actual election results seem to depend almost solely on turnout.

[Franzl]

What unpopular things did the CDU-FDP do since the election that has hurt them in polls?

If I were polled right now, I would also have to answer "disapprove".

The government has appeared largely incompetent on a variety of things.....but maybe one of the things that sunk them was their stupid tax cut program that a vast majority of the population opposed because we can't afford it.

Add to that the growing hatred of the FDP.

[Franzl]

The thing is...Westerwelle isn't entirely wrong....but he really needs to present himself better.

[Franzl]

What unpopular things did the CDU-FDP do since the election that has hurt them in polls?

In short words. They do nothing. The FDP made great promise, but they do not so much. Their ministers look like trainees. In the CDU everybody says something different. The CSU don't know what they wants. "Afghanistan" is the ever more unpopular. The government debt is at record levels, the cities are broke and the CDU and FDP argue over tax relief.

And there is more.....

Gee, reminds me of one majority party in the western hemisphere.

Yeah but there's no excuse over here....as they have a majority....and there's no filibuster to get around or veto to override for anything.

[Franzl]

What unpopular things did the CDU-FDP do since the election that has hurt them in polls?

In short words. They do nothing. The FDP made great promise, but they do not so much. Their ministers look like trainees. In the CDU everybody says something different. The CSU don't know what they wants. "Afghanistan" is the ever more unpopular. The government debt is at record levels, the cities are broke and the CDU and FDP argue over tax relief.

And there is more.....

Gee, reminds me of one majority party in the western hemisphere.

Yeah but there's no excuse over here....as they have a majority....and there's no filibuster to get around or veto to override for anything.

Oh, I know. So what, are they just incompetent or afraid to make tough votes or what?

Basically, they're too busy fighting themselves (the coalition partners) that they've stopped caring about much else.

[Franzl]

To be honest, the American GOP seems slightly more competent than the FDP at present.

[Franzl]

Anyway, certain people in the CDU have started to courting the Greens now, for example by  becoming more critical of nuclear power (Norbert Röttgen, I'm looking at you). This is mostly done with eyes on NRW, but maybe there are also some hopes to turn into a back-up option for the federal level.

I think there's a reasonable chance that CDU-Greens form a coalition in NRW. A coalition with Linke seems unlikely considering the hatred between the SPD and them in NRW.

[Franzl]

I would really love a CDU/Green coalition.

[Franzl]

The latest Forsa-poll for North Rhine-Westfalia

CDU: 38 (up 3 since the last Forsa poll in January)
SPD: 34 (+2)
Greens: 11
FDP: 6
Left: 6

For the first time, SPD-Green is in front of CDU-FDP.

Now the SPD should REALLY be hoping the Left misses the 5% mark.

[Franzl]

My endorsement goes to the SPD here. Schocking, isn't it?

[Franzl]

A couple of reasons:

1.) The whole incident surrounding Kraft's proposals to allow long-term unemployed people to perform some useful task for society is something I support. And the NRW-FDP, btw, also supports that proposal. The CDU is being extremely hypocritical by opposing something that could have been one of their own proposals. Apparently, according to them, it will "discourage" unemployed people because it gives them the feeling that they can't find a job.

Wrong, IMO. Work experience is worth a good deal, whether it's paid or not. Volunteer work while unemployed could be a useful tool to find a "real" job at some point in the future, and I see absolutely no legitimate reason to oppose that idea.

2.) I have a strong personal dislike for Jürgen Rüttgers. I don't particularly want to see him continue as Ministerpräsident after the election....and Hannelore Kraft isn't particularly terrible.

3.) I wouldn't mind CDU/FDP losing their Bundesrat majority. I opposed the tax cuts because I consider them irresponsible....and it's time to take away their total power.

4.) And now a stupid reason: I genuinely hope that SPD/Green can come back as a force in German politics. I'm so tired of hung parliaments because of the stupid Linke that either cause grand coalitions or "Jamaica". I don't oppose Jamaica, I think CDU-FDP-Green, or even CDU-Green can be a good combination....but I want political stability back.

I long for the days when it was CDU/FDP against SPD/Green. One winner, one loser.

I think it's important for SPD/Green to win something again at this point to prove it's still viable.

[Franzl]

I think it's important for SPD/Green to win something again at this point to prove it's still viable.

But that is unlikely to happen when Die Linke takes the 5% hurdle.

True, but I'm not convinced they will get in.

[Franzl]

I'm having massive second thoughts about my original SPD endorsement.....

Anyway...my wahl-o-mat result:

FDP 51
CDU 48
BüSo 43
Grüne 38
Piraten 36
SPD 33
Linke 31
NPD 28

[Franzl]

I have family up there.....very strongly old-style Catholic CDU voters

My Oma lives in Schermbeck (Kreis Wesel) and My aunt lives in Borken! The latter has some amazing election results usually.

[Franzl]

I've warmed to the idea of CDU/Green...so I guess the Left getting in would be a good thing this time

[Franzl]

My prediction for the NRW-election tomorrow:

CDU   36
SPD   34
Green   12
FDP   6
Left   6

Just out of interest....what would you think of schwarz-grün?

[Franzl]

And you see that's the only thing I'm afraid of....that the CDU are willing to agree to the wrong compromises.

[Franzl]

Well if the result is as we expect at this point.....what could be the alternative if the CDU do not agree to those Green demands?

Grand coalition? I suppose a possibility....but for some reason I tend to consider it terribly unlikely in NRW.

[Franzl]

I find it quite amusing that something like nuclear power is seriously up for debate.

[Franzl]

My prediction:

SPD: 36.5% 37.1%
CDU: 36.1% 35.0%
GRE: 10.2% 11.5%
FDP: 6.7% 6.0%
LEFT: 5.1% 5.5%
PIR: 2.3% 2.5%
NAZIS (NPD/REP/ProNRW): 2.1% 1.8%
Others: 1.0% 0.6%

Coalition emerging: SPD-CDU SPD-Green (I think it might be just barely enough under those circumstances, even if the Left gets in.)

[Franzl]

Hopefully our sister party is as underestimated in the polls as we just were.

Well in recent German elections (except for the federal election last year....but turnout was just dreadful), the CDU has been overestimated greatly at times....and the SPD underestimated to a lesser extent.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the SPD in front of the CDU in terms of votes.

[Franzl]

Polls close in 45 minutes!

[Franzl]

Turnout is said to be low.

50% up to 4pm.


Is the traditional assumption valid that low turnout helps the CDU? I would imagine that it is especially true in NRW, to be honest.