2010 State Elections in Germany

[KuntaKinte]

Any reason why the SPD is not benefitting from the weakness of the CSU ?

Greens are "chick", SPD is not.

[KuntaKinte]

Isn't it amazing how polarized the German electorate is?

The German electorate is very polarized, but isn't it in most western democracies nowadays? The US, the UK, France, Italy?

[KuntaKinte]

Forsa (27.01.2010)

Greens        16 %

Forsa has become such a complete joke. They just hunt for headlines.

[KuntaKinte]

The FDP hasn't changed a bit. They are still the buyable, corrupted, bigoted upper class lobbyists that they have been at least since the 1980s.

Many people fell for them for the first time in 2009 because they were fed up with the Grand Coalition, the FDP had been out of government for 11 years and Westerwelle had the ability to paint the FDP as the common mans party. Now they realize what they have done and leave the party in droves.

[KuntaKinte]

The latest Forsa-poll for North Rhine-Westfalia

CDU: 38 (down 3 since the last Forsa poll in January)
SPD: 34 (+2)
Greens: 11
FDP: 6
Left: 6

For the first time, SPD-Green is in front of CDU-FDP.

[KuntaKinte]

Hey, that's really good news. Especially the 43:44 for Kraft vs. Rüttgers is much, much more I would have expected some months ago.

I'm just worried if this started a little bit to early. There are two months left, and there will be a government comeback. We need to pressure Rüttgers until the day of the election, and that will be hard.

What's also very positive about the latest poll is that CDU-Grüne is without a majority.

[KuntaKinte]

Sounds like SPD is going to have to find a way to make it clear to people who are flirting with vote Linke that if the Linke party gets into the legislature - it will likely lead to the CDU staying in power with Green support

or SPD support. Which is actually going to be the de facto preferred option of the people most likely to take your advice.
In the long run, that way suicide lies.

With the difference that there is a chance that SPD becomes the strongest party. So a grand coalition doesn't necessarily mean that Rüttgers stays in power. A CDU-green coalition does.

[KuntaKinte]

Overhang mandates here we come. (Though perhaps not this year, seeing how close CDU and SPD are.)

The overhang mandates would be compensated anyway. The only result would be a bloated Landtag.

[KuntaKinte]

Of course, the whole point is affirmative action for the FDP (oh, and the Greens and the Left too, to a lesser extent.)

As long as you're going to do fixed lists anyways, a single vote is more democratic than two votes, which are basically a way of pressganging people into tactical votes that don't *exactly* reflect their wishes.

I completely agree.

Gimme open lists.

Yes, though I think in a large state like NRW you should 'regionalize' the lists, to avoid a ballot with hundreds of candidates.

[KuntaKinte]

It will have to be a grand coalition then at the state level.

Or CDU-Greens.

[KuntaKinte]

- it would have to be the "Jamaica coalition" or CDU, FDP and Greens - but I don't know if the Greens would be willing to play such a bit part in such a rightwing coalition.

IIRC, Greens formally ruled out 'Jamaica' on their party congress.

[KuntaKinte]

What did NRW have before?

The same system, except that voters just had one vote instead of two.
So until 2005, the vote for the candidate in your constituency meant you simultaneously voted for the candidate's party list. Now you're able to split your vote.

As, I recall, list MPs in Baden-Württemberg are those candidates who came closest to winnig their cosntituency. What do other states do?

You're right about Baden-Württemberg, I like their system.
Almost all the other states do fixed lists as used in the elections to the Bundestag, except Hamburg and Bavaria, that do open lists.

[KuntaKinte]

SPD 74
Left 67
Greens 62
Pirates 62
NPD 49
CDU 40
FDP 36

Except that the NPD should be on the last place, the order is about right.

[KuntaKinte]

Turnout looks as about the same as in 2005, the internet says.

[KuntaKinte]

Turnout is said to be low.

50% up to 4pm.


Is the traditional assumption valid that low turnout helps the CDU? I would imagine that it is especially true in NRW, to be honest.

Well, but there are good reasons for CDU voters to be frustrated these days.

[KuntaKinte]

A new Forsa poll has CDU/CSU-FDP at only 38%. That is the lowest share of vote for the "centre-right" in a Forsa poll since March 2000, on the peak of the cdu contributions scandal.

Union: 32 ( -3 from the last Forsa poll)
SPD: 27 (+3)
FDP: 6 (-1)
Greens: 16 (+1)
Left: 11 (-1)
Others: 8 (+1)

Black-Yellow: 38:54
Red-Green: 43:49
Black-Green: 48:44

[KuntaKinte]

News from North Rhine Westfalia:

After weeks of very strange tactics of the Social Democrats, they now finally decided to build a minority government with the Greens. If they don't mess it up, Hannelore Kraft should be minister president before July the 13th.