2010 State Elections in Germany

[DL]

How do the rank and file in the Green party react to their party propping up the CDU in places like Hamburg and Saar and potentially in NRW?? The Green party was initially created as a leftwing splinter from the SPD and my impression is that a lot of people who vote Green in Germany are doing so to push the SPD in a certain direction in government and not to help bring in a rightwing government that wants to slash and burn social programs but will wink at the Greens by banning non-energy efficient light bulbs etc...

BTW: what happens to the Bundesrat votes from a state if the Greens are part of the ruling coalition? Do those votes then get neutralized and it in effect takes away the CDU/FDP 2/3 majority there that they need to pass a lot things?

[DL]

A lot of people are voting Green because they want to vote Green, not because of the SPD or any other party. Of course, in the current climate a lot of them also vote Green because they think that the SPD sucks and and that the Greens don't consist of a bunch of crybabies and losers who are writhering in self-pity. With up to 17% in the polls, Green is certainly more sexy.

Fair enough, but unless a person is delusional, they have to know that they are not going to get a Green party majority government and that realistically they are voting to influence the makeup of the next coalition government. If I was German, I would be very tempted to vote Green on the assumption that the bigger the Green slice in the Bundestag, the better the chances that they can form a coalition with the SPD and provide the "best of both worlds" and give us social justice and sensitivity to environmental issues and social liberalism. But I would drop the Green party like a hot potato if i thought they were going to be a fig leaf for a rightwing CDU administration that was going to implement some neocon agenda.

This is the trap the Green party in Ireland fell into when they formed a coalition with the corrupt rightwing Fianna Fail party. Now the polls all show that they will be annhilated in the next election.

[DL]

Sounds like SPD is going to have to find a way to make it clear to people who are flirting with vote Linke that if the Linke party gets into the legislature - it will likely lead to the CDU staying in power with Green support - and that the only way to get rid of the CDU is by voting SPD!

[DL]

translation please?

[DL]

It will have to be a grand coalition then at the state level.

[DL]

CDU+Greens may not be a majority either - it would have to be the "Jamaica coalition" or CDU, FDP and Greens - but I don't know if the Greens would be willing to play such a bit part in such a rightwing coalition.

[DL]

The good news is that CDU/FDP is D-E-D DEAD! that means no more majority for Merkey in the Bundesrat - so all those crazy fiscal policies cooked up by the FDP will be dead on arrival.

[DL]

why shouldnt it hold? It could even get bigger - and if the SPD emerges as the biggest party - Hannelore Kraft could also be Premier in a grand coalition.

[DL]

Would the Greens ever form a coalition with the CDU if the math was also there for a SPD/Green majority?

[DL]

Are all the numbers we are seeing now just exit poll numbers or are these actual results?

[DL]

Looks more and more like the SPD will get about one seat more than the CDU - that means Kraft becomes Premier! :-)

[DL]

Funny how Merkel was so popular while she was locked into a grand coalition with the FDP - but now that she has what she always wanted - a majority with the crackpot FDP - suddenly no one likes her anymore.

What is the moral of this story?

[DL]

ZDF has a new projection that still gives SPD/Greens a majority

[DL]

Its quite something that four hours after the polls have closed one network projects a 1 seat majority for red/green and the other does not.

I'm sitting on hot coals!

[DL]

Hopefully if the SPD get even 1 vote more than the CDU in the overall popular vote...Kraft can demand to be premier in a grand coalition.

[DL]

I still don't see why the SPD and the Greens can form a government and have the Linke party simply commit to not voting it down.

[DL]

ZDF now projects that the SPD will be 0.1% ahead o the CDU over all. Congrats Premier Kraft!

[DL]

I've got to admit that the Northrhine-Westphalian SPD's course of action makes no sense whatsoever.

They have now offically ruled out any option they had:
- a coalition with Greens and Left
- a coalition with Greens and FDP
- a coalition with CDU
- a minority government with Greens
- early elections

This means that the current CDU/FDP government stays in office indefinitely, without having a majority in parliament. Please tell me that there's a strategy behind this...

My German is a bit rusty, but from what i read in the German papers it doesn't sound like the SPD "ruled out" all of those combinations, but rather that the talks broke down in each case. The reality is that the SPD is in the strongest position to lead a government and that no government can be formed without them - unless of course the CDU and FDP made a coalition deal with the Linke Party (not likely lol). I think they are playing the other parties off against each other until someone breaks under the pressure and agrees to a deal with the SPD that is on the SPD's terms.

[DL]

What I find remarkable in German politics is how when  the "grand coalition" was formed in 2005 everyone said it could never last and that it was a recipe for disaster etc...but in the end it lasted a full four years and by the end of it Merkel was just about the most popular chancellor in post-war German history.

Then she finally got what she always wanted - a clear majority for a black/yellow "bumblebee" coalition with the FDP (watch out what you wish for - you might get it!). Everyone thought this would be easy street for Merkel since her CDU and the FDP are both right of centre parties that tend to see eye to eye on most things anyways - plus by being by far the biggest party in the coalition - the CDU now has most of the cabinet positions etc... and yet....ever since the bumble coalition took power - it has been straight downhill for Merkel. Now she is ridiculously unpopular getting some of the worst ratings ever for a CDU leader. It turns out that it was easier to get along with the SPD than it is with the FDP.

Can any Germans here explain what happened? 

[DL]

FDP at 5%? Christ, haha.

The worlds smallest violin is playing for that horrible little party!!

[DL]

I don't think it matters that the Left party will vote for their own candidate. To be President you need an absolute majority and there could be multiple ballots. I suspect that after the Left candidate gets drops after the first ballot - all those votes will go to Gauck on the second ballot.

[DL]

"FDP drops below 5% for the first time."

DING DONG THE WITCH IS DEAD!!

[DL]

Its about time - for some strange reason Germany has lagged way behind every other country in Europe when it comes to cracking down on smoking in public places. Even at Green party conventions in Germany, cigarette companies have hospitality booths and give away free cigarettes to the delagates!

[DL]

What kind of backwards country is Germanyn that they would allow a bunch criminals in the tobacco industry to spend one red cent on a campaign to prevent restrictions on smoking??? What do they call it? The campaign in favour of lung cancer??

The idea that tobacco companies are allowed to play any role whatsoever in German politics is scandalous. Where do they get their power? I've never seen any tobacoo growing in Germany and I always thought Germans were quite health conscious. Its pretty sad when countries like France and Italy and Ireland and the UK have done the right thing and banned smoking in all bars and restaurants - while in Germany - everywhere you to drink or eat is like walking into a gas chamber full of noxious cigarette smoke.

[DL]

I saw a poll a couple of weeks ago that showed that the SPD and Greens could win a majority and that was BEFORE the Beust resignation. It seems like a no-brainer for the Greens to pull the plug on this government, force and early election and get a Red/Green gov't in Hamburg - that would also further cut down on CDU strength in the Bundesrat.