Is Huckabee finished?

[So the Heroes Fall]

I think so. This is Willy Horton x100

[Lunar]

I think perhaps one of the best signs Huckabee is doomed is that I've not seen a SINGLE news story that's over a page long on this slaying (AP/CNN/etc.) that does not call out Huckabee as being partially responsible while only offering a minute defense of his decision.

[Senator Libertas]

The Huckster has been finished. This is just overkill now.

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

Does this finish him?  No - I don't think so - I think it severely hinders him, and it's one of the main reasons I've always opposed him - he's always had a weak law and order record, but I think he can overcome something like this.  I still don't see him winning anyway though, so I think this is somewhat irrelevant to the big picture - I just don't see Huckabee winning in general.

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

Would Huckabee being finished be bad for Romney?

Huckabee won Iowa in 2008 and probably would be a favorite there for 2012.  Even so, Huckabee's not a strong fundraiser, is not liked by the establishment and has limited appeal in parts of the country that are relatively less socially conservative.  I'd call Romney the favorite in delegate rich states in the Northeast, West Coast, and maybe perhaps Illinois and Florida regardless of a Huckabee win in Iowa.

Tim Pawlenty doesn't appear to be a big factor.  But his chances of winning his neighbor state of Iowa would be much improved with Huckabee out of the picture.  And he's a  bigger risk than Huckabee would be to convert such a win into momentum that would be problematic for Romney.  He has the potential to compete  with Romney outside of the South and heartland more than Huckabee would have.  He's more palatable to the establishment and is probably a better fundraiser and a boosting win in the first caucus could be a huge headache for Romney.

It's analogous to a tournament bracket in sports where a team awaiting the winner of a game to be their opponent in the next round may counterintuitively root for the "better" team because they themselves match up worse against the underdog.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Probably not.

[A-Bob]

yep.

If there wasn't this case he could have won the nomination. but there is no way you can look at the GOP nominee that let out a killer from jail and want to vote for him. especially if military and crime are issues...and military decisions will be

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

yep.

If there wasn't this case he could have won the nomination. but there is no way you can look at the GOP nominee that let out a killer from jail and want to vote for him. especially if military and crime are issues...and military decisions will be

I just don't see it hurting him that much if it didn't hurt him that much in 2008.  He had a terrible record with this stuff before.  I don't think he had anything as bad as this, but we'll see.

I'm watching Huckabee on O'Reilly right now - he's saying he wouldn't have granted clemency looking back, but he brought up a mistake in the prosecutors when he committed anothe crime after he was let out that kept him out of jail.  He's trying to push this off on other people.

[Rob]

He's trying to push this off on other people.

The party of personal responsibility should nominate him.

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

He's trying to push this off on other people.

The party of personal responsibility should nominate him.

When I saw that I got pretty pissed off.

[Rob]

also, "It's a very Republican area, very conservative," Huckabee said, speaking of Midland before his visit. "Anyone who can't get the support of what I call just the salt to the earth type people in West Texas probably isn't going to be elected president."

Midland, TX (2008 Republican Primary): McCain 55%, Huckabee 36%

so why was he interested in running, if the salt of the earth Christians rejected him?

And (Midland, TX, 2008 General): McCain 78%, Obama 21%

Why did Obama even run, if he couldn't carry Middle American Midland?

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

also, "It's a very Republican area, very conservative," Huckabee said, speaking of Midland before his visit. "Anyone who can't get the support of what I call just the salt to the earth type people in West Texas probably isn't going to be elected president."

Midland, TX (2008 Republican Primary): McCain 55%, Huckabee 36%

so why was he interested in running, if the salt of the earth Christians rejected him?

And (Midland, TX, 2008 General): McCain 78%, Obama 21%

Why did Obama even run, if he couldn't carry Middle American Midland?

You realize every politician panders to the area they're about to visit, right?

[Lief]

No. Mike Huckabee's voters don't care about law and order issues. The people to be angered/repulsed by this were already angered/repulsed by his belief in creationism and his squirrel-eating.

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, besides he would have had massive problems raising money too and therefore wouldn't have been a serious contender anyway.

So, no Huckabee in 2012.

[Chareth Cutestory]

I like when people think news stories will be relevant for three years.  Most of the country will have forgotten about this by 2010.

[Joe Republic]

I like when people think news stories will be relevant for three years.  Most of the country will have forgotten about this by 2010.

Willie Horton was furloughed in June 1986, and went on his crime spree in April 1987.  It was old news by the time of the 1988 campaign, and yet was still very, very relevant.

[Lunar]

I like when people think news stories will be relevant for three years.  Most of the country will have forgotten about this by 2010.

I feel I'm fairly conscious about the timeline here when I say it will still hurt Huck and that it's a big deal in the GOP primary. No matter how he plays his argument, and indeed, no matter how much I actually will probably agree with Huckabee that this is a failure of Washington state's process more than Arkansas', it's still such a big landmine that I'm not sure if he could win out in a  Republican Primary.  

He could probably defend it better than Dukakis did Willie Horton in the *general* election, but the mailing pieces that would be hitting Iowa households (probably sponsored by Romney's, Palin's or Pawlenty's campaigns, or all of the above), detailing the murders and Huckabee's involvement, while they may be factually correct, they'd just be BRUTAL.

The more and more I think about it, the more I realize how no one would want to be Huck's campaign manager now.

In 2016 he might have a shot, but 2012 is too soon, just like Micheal Jackson child molesting jokes.  

Remember, no matter how intellectually defensible a position may be, what matters is whether or not it will sell.  Actually, you should remember that throughout this week as Obama increases troops in Afghanistan and the health care bill moves forward etc.

[Fmr. Emperor PiT]

     This probably won't hurt him among his base. It will hurt him badly among the rest of the population, but there's plenty of negative stuff to hammer in on out there. Just look at how his numbers declined after Iowa, compared to his meteoric rise beforehand; he does best when he can rely on his charisma & not worry about the skeletons in his closet getting exposed. That only works when you're not considered a major threat, as he was before Iowa.

     He'll likely perform at close to the same level he did in 2008 if he can get a corner on his 2008 base, but he'll probably do worse if Palin runs too. However, I felt the same way before this latest story; this just further guarantees that he'll never find significant success beyond his religious right base..

[So the Heroes Fall]

I like when people think news stories will be relevant for three years.  Most of the country will have forgotten about this by 2010.

The other GOP candidates will keep reminding people.

[Communists For McCain]

If his comments on AIDS didn't doom him, I don't see how this could.

[Grumps]

In reality, yes.

[Joe Republic]

If his comments on AIDS didn't doom him, I don't see how this could.

His views on AIDS were pretty representative of his base.  This is not.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

I think Huckabee was well set-up for voters who did not like Romney's polished corporate identity (or anything else about Romney), but were uncomfortable with Palin's .  Basically, I thought he was the most electable-seeming candidate.  Not really anymore.

I think we shouldn't jump to conclusions about him being "finished" until we see how the media narrative forms on it.  How many voters ever knew about John McCain's divorce?  That's an extreme example, but still.

[The Mikado]

This is good news...for John McCain Mitt Romney!

Seriously, I'm beginning to wonder if those debate stages in 2012 will be Romney standing alone on stage while the moderator declares, "We're sorry that the other candidates couldn't make it tonight.  Governor Pawlenty has been grounded by a freak tornado and Governor Johnson giggling to old Cheech & Chong routines and eating Pringles."

[Tender Branson]

The GOP has few ways to win and many to lose in 2012.  One of those ways - Huckabee - has disappeared today with the emergence of this story.  Huckabee may well have been finished even earlier.  The corporate tycoons and the robber barons who control the inner workings of the GOP would have seen to it that a populist candidate never became the nominee, no matter how sympathetic he may have been to their Christofascist policies.  This means that the Clinton-but-not Obama states are in danger of falling to the Democrats.  These states are culturally different.  Time will tell if they will vote for a candidate who has improved their economic situation rather than one who shares their regressive values.

It is worth nothing that Huckabee is more popular among the 18-25 demographic than any other Republican candidate.  As young people become increasingly liberal, they need someone who can reach out to them.  So far, the GOP has churned out Sarah Palin - a mediocrity who has not proved herself intelligent enough to win an election, much less serve as President.