US Job Growth
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Poll
Question: When will we see positive job growth again ?
#1
December 2009
 
#2
Q1 2010
 
#3
Q2 2010
 
#4
Q3 2010
 
#5
Q4 2010
 
#6
2011
 
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Author Topic: US Job Growth  (Read 2278 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: December 01, 2009, 10:09:54 AM »

A new report will be out on Friday that will show about 100K jobs lost last month. That would be the lowest since early 2008. So, in which quarter do you expect net positive job growth again ? Will it even be December 2009, with initial jobless claims down so sharply in the past weeks ? Or in the first half of 2010 ? We'll see. I guess it`s Q2 2010, with an average of the 3 months from April to June showing slight job growth.
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Grumpier Than Uncle Joe
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« Reply #1 on: December 01, 2009, 10:15:02 AM »

2011
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #2 on: December 02, 2009, 02:34:50 AM »

Q4 2010
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MK
Mike Keller
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« Reply #3 on: December 08, 2009, 11:23:06 AM »

Never.

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Franzl
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« Reply #4 on: December 08, 2009, 11:59:10 AM »


When do you think unemployment will cross the 100% mark?
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MK
Mike Keller
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« Reply #5 on: December 08, 2009, 12:36:08 PM »

Maybe saying "never" is being too negative.

But honestly i don't see where the jobs are going to come from that quickly.     Small gain 4Q 2011??  Lets face it, this country will never be what it was 30 years ago when it comes to jobs.  The Gap between the rich and poor is huge.



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opebo
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« Reply #6 on: December 09, 2009, 01:00:19 PM »

Maybe saying "never" is being too negative.

But honestly i don't see where the jobs are going to come from that quickly.     Small gain 4Q 2011??  Lets face it, this country will never be what it was 30 years ago when it comes to jobs.  The Gap between the rich and poor is huge.

Really the amazing thing was that there was ever a brief period of toleration of working class well being. 
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phk
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« Reply #7 on: December 09, 2009, 06:41:34 PM »

Maybe 2010.

The productivity increases of Q3 2009 were pretty impressive.
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snowguy716
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« Reply #8 on: December 10, 2009, 07:26:11 PM »
« Edited: December 10, 2009, 07:55:12 PM by Snowguy716 »

MN's unemployment rate has "fallen through teh floor".. after having been right up there with the national rate, things changed this past summer as we peaked just under 9%...

For October we were down to 6.9%.

For my county, unemployment is 0.9 points higher this October than last October (I could only find unadjusted numbers)...

But it should be noted that the decrease from the normal peak of unemployment in January to the usual bottom in October has been much stronger than usual, hinting at recovery in jobs.  January 2009's unemployment rate was 3.5 points higher than a year before while October was only 0.9 points higher.

My county has surpassed Ramsey County (where St. Paul is located) in unemployment numbers for the first time at least since 1990. 

The reason is the huge Enbridge pipeline being built from the oil sands of northern Alberta to Duluth-Superior from which the oil can be transported to refiners all over the world.

Minnesota has the odd distinction of being the largest refiner of oil for a state that produces no oil of its own.  We are at a strategic position since shipping oil by boat is cheaper than through a pipe or by truck or train.. and thus the port at Duluth/Superior being nearly in the middle of the North American continent with access to the world is hugely important.

The United States is importing more and more oil from Canada and Canada, if not already, will become our largest source of foreign oil.  Since prices are relatively stable in Canada thanks to it not being an unstable hellhole, Minnesota enjoyed a much smaller spike in gas prices in the big spike in 2008. 

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crat
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« Reply #9 on: December 10, 2009, 10:24:46 PM »

Maybe saying "never" is being too negative.

But honestly i don't see where the jobs are going to come from that quickly.     Small gain 4Q 2011??  Lets face it, this country will never be what it was 30 years ago when it comes to jobs.  The Gap between the rich and poor is huge.

Really the amazing thing was that there was ever a brief period of toleration of working class well being. 

I agree. 
Though janitors don't deserve $60k a year anymore than a Wall Street CEO deserves $60M. 

(My father used to do income tax preparation years ago, one customer was a veteran union member who worked as a janitor at an automotive factory, and his income was just over $60k.  That's ridiculous money for a mop-jockey.) 
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MK
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« Reply #10 on: December 12, 2009, 07:10:29 AM »

Maybe saying "never" is being too negative.

But honestly i don't see where the jobs are going to come from that quickly.     Small gain 4Q 2011??  Lets face it, this country will never be what it was 30 years ago when it comes to jobs.  The Gap between the rich and poor is huge.

Really the amazing thing was that there was ever a brief period of toleration of working class well being. 

I agree. 
Though janitors don't deserve $60k a year anymore than a Wall Street CEO deserves $60M. 

(My father used to do income tax preparation years ago, one customer was a veteran union member who worked as a janitor at an automotive factory, and his income was just over $60k.  That's ridiculous money for a mop-jockey.) 

Hum.. maybe he did more then just clean the crappers and mop the floors?    Theres different types of clean up work that can be performed in a place like that I'm sure.


Unless we plan on asking china and others to give our jobs back I don't see this country getting out of this hole.  The UMP rate will stay a steady 8-9% in the next few years.

I don't think a lot of  people realize the importance of the blue Collar/ lower educated worker in this country.  If you can put them to work with a decent wage, they in - return will spend and gather credit.  That keeps towns, states, and our economy going.   

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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #11 on: December 12, 2009, 01:21:26 PM »

Maybe saying "never" is being too negative.

But honestly i don't see where the jobs are going to come from that quickly.     Small gain 4Q 2011??  Lets face it, this country will never be what it was 30 years ago when it comes to jobs.  The Gap between the rich and poor is huge.

Really the amazing thing was that there was ever a brief period of toleration of working class well being. 

I agree. 
Though janitors don't deserve $60k a year anymore than a Wall Street CEO deserves $60M. 

(My father used to do income tax preparation years ago, one customer was a veteran union member who worked as a janitor at an automotive factory, and his income was just over $60k.  That's ridiculous money for a mop-jockey.) 

Not really. Seems about right. How else do you expect him and his family to live a decent middle class existence?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #12 on: December 20, 2009, 01:57:05 AM »

I say Q2, mostly because the Census Bureau will add 1 Mio. workers to the rolls in Q2 2010 to conduct the 2010 Census.

Unemployment is likely to drop by 0.5% during this quarter. Itīs likely that the rate will increase again somewhat in Q3, but many employers might start hiring again during these quarters, so it could even stay at about 9-9.5%. The Census hiring effort might actually benefit the job market somewhat, because many employers might think: Well, he/she worked for the Census Bureau and is a motivated worker, instead of being a lazy unemployed bum and sitting at home. Therefore some employers could be more likely to hire these people once they are finished with the Census.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/19/us/19census.html
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phk
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« Reply #13 on: December 20, 2009, 05:02:32 AM »
« Edited: December 20, 2009, 06:33:08 AM by phknrocket1k »

Maybe saying "never" is being too negative.

But honestly i don't see where the jobs are going to come from that quickly.     Small gain 4Q 2011??  Lets face it, this country will never be what it was 30 years ago when it comes to jobs.  The Gap between the rich and poor is huge.

Really the amazing thing was that there was ever a brief period of toleration of working class well being.  

I agree.  
Though janitors don't deserve $60k a year anymore than a Wall Street CEO deserves $60M.  

(My father used to do income tax preparation years ago, one customer was a veteran union member who worked as a janitor at an automotive factory, and his income was just over $60k.  That's ridiculous money for a mop-jockey.)  

Not really. Seems about right. How else do you expect him and his family to live a decent middle class existence?

Nobody should get paid any more or less than P*MPL (which should equal the wage). Which I expect is much lower than 60k.

As for the main topic.

I expect to see rather anemic growth in the job market. Many of the lower tier jobs will be replaced by automated technology (recovery may even entail increased spending in productivity boosting capital as opposed to additional hiring). I expect both the scale and substitution effects to not favor labor over the long run.
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dead0man
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« Reply #14 on: December 20, 2009, 05:44:34 AM »

Not really. Seems about right. How else do you expect him and his family to live a decent middle class existence?
Does everybody that does unskilled labor deserve a decent middle class existence?
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War on Want
Evilmexicandictator
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« Reply #15 on: December 20, 2009, 09:53:34 PM »

Not really. Seems about right. How else do you expect him and his family to live a decent middle class existence?
Does everybody that does unskilled labor deserve a decent middle class existence?
Ideally, yes.
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phk
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« Reply #16 on: December 20, 2009, 11:13:20 PM »

Not really. Seems about right. How else do you expect him and his family to live a decent middle class existence?
Does everybody that does unskilled labor deserve a decent middle class existence?
Ideally, yes.

It only will and should occur if P * MPL is >= W.

Assuming W = Enough for a middle class existence.
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Bo
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« Reply #17 on: December 21, 2009, 09:28:20 PM »

I'm optimistic by saying Q1 2010, even though I wouldn't be surprised if positive job growth only begins in Q2 or Q3 2010.
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