The Muslim Vote?

[Rob]

One thing that's kinda frustrating is the lack of concrete data on the Muslim vote in America. The sketchy info that's out there indicates that Bush carried Muslims in 2000 (with a strong showing for Arab-American Nader); they switched overwhelmingly to Kerry in 2004; and voted even more heavily for Obama in 2008.

I'm wondering if we have any better indicators than a handful of exit polls, though. i.e., do we have results for any precincts that are confirmed to be heavily Muslim? Dearborn, Michigan might be the place to look (I'm assuming that most of the ethnic Arabs in that city are, in fact, Muslims- I could be wrong...).

We have numbers for Hasidic Jews and Mormon Fundamentalists, damn it- why none for a much bigger religious group?

[Хahar 🤔]

The problem is that Muslims tend not to congregate exclusively.

[Rob]

The problem is that Muslims tend not to congregate exclusively.

Understood, but I'd be shocked if there are no majority-Muslim precincts that, say, Alcon could track down.

[phk]

From the numbers I have seen. To simply gauge the preferences.

> indicating preference
~ close to indifference

1996
Clinton > Dole~Perot

2000
Bush > Nader~Gore

2004
Kerry > Bush

2008
Obama > McCain

Bush carried non-Black Muslims overwhelmingly in 2000.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Another issue is that "Muslim", like "Asian", picks out some quite distinct cultural groups. Arabs in Dearborn don't have a huge amount in common with, say, Somalis in Minneapolis.

This is different from, say, "Jewish" which all across the U.S., aside from some Hasidic enclaves in the New York area, tends to mean Ashkenazim whose families left eastern Europe in the period 1850-1950.

[phk]

Another issue is that "Muslim", like "Asian", picks out some quite distinct cultural groups. Arabs in Dearborn don't have a huge amount in common with, say, Somalis in Minneapolis.

This is different from, say, "Jewish" which all across the U.S., aside from some Hasidic enclaves in the New York area, tends to mean Ashkenazim whose families left eastern Europe in the period 1850-1950.

Even than Muslims are still overwhelmingly D's today (though that could change i.e. 2000 election).

Black Muslims will increase the overall weight and magnitude of the D vote share (and pretty much prevented Al Gore's level of Muslim support from falling to embarrassing levels). They might have a preference function for D's like 2D while the rest are 2D - .7

[mileslunn]

I am guessing Obama would have won the Muslim vote although tough to say the exact numbers is tough as they are quite diverse.  The Black Muslims obviously would have gone heavily for Obama.  Also not all Arabs are Muslim, in fact in the case of Dearborn a large percentage if not the majority are Christian.  I am not sure how relevant this is, but I know in Europe where their Muslim community is large enough to take accurate polls of, they vote overwhelmingly for parties on the left often in the neighbourhood of 80-90% while parties on the right struggle just to get into double digits.  That being said, you also have sections of many European cities that are predominately Muslim, whereas there are few if any such areas in the United States as well as the Muslims in the United States tend to be more moderate and assimilated whereas in Europe you have a sizeable radical element and they are not nearly as assimilated.  Despite being socially conservative, they tend to vote for parties that support maintaining current levels of immigration and embrace multiculturalism as opposed to those who support cutting immigration and assimilation. 

The one area that might have a large enough Muslim population to make an accurate estimate is Los Angeles as they have quite a large Iranian community, although I am not sure their voting patterns are necessarily similiar to other Muslim groups.  It would be interesting to see the results in the areas with the largest concentrations of Iranians in Los Angeles. 

[Хahar 🤔]

The one area that might have a large enough Muslim population to make an accurate estimate is Los Angeles as they have quite a large Iranian community, although I am not sure their voting patterns are necessarily similiar to other Muslim groups.  It would be interesting to see the results in the areas with the largest concentrations of Iranians in Los Angeles. 

Persians generally live among other white people, which makes it more or less impossible to tell.

But, also, going back to the original post, we have data on Mormon fundies and Hasidic Jews because they have much more in common than Muslims do.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wonder what the assumption that the Muslim vote (if there even was such a thing at the time) was heavily for Bush in 2000 is based on. A lot of assumptions about the voting patterns of small minority groups are based on the established voting patterns of the group (and sometimes only part of it) in one particular area, and an assumption that what is true there, must be true of everywhere. Exit poll figures are less than useless for small minorities as well and specific surveys often get the balance drastically wrong. Of course we can tell that the Arab vote in the Detroit metropolitan area voted for Bush in 2000, for Kerry in 2004 and Obama in 2008, but...

[phk]

I wonder what the assumption that the Muslim vote (if there even was such a thing at the time) was heavily for Bush in 2000 is based on. A lot of assumptions about the voting patterns of small minority groups are based on the established voting patterns of the group (and sometimes only part of it) in one particular area, and an assumption that what is true there, must be true of everywhere. Exit poll figures are less than useless for small minorities as well and specific surveys often get the balance drastically wrong. Of course we can tell that the Arab vote in the Detroit metropolitan area voted for Bush in 2000, for Kerry in 2004 and Obama in 2008, but...

The only pollster I know who did a Muslim vote was Zogby.

But anecdotally, I can say that Pakistanis were around 70%+ Bush. Though that isn't much.

[segwaystyle2012]

Not large enough to calculate properly.

[Hash]

There might be some very heavily Arab precincts in Dearborn to track down, I guess. If that's a good sample, which it probably isn't...

[Хahar 🤔]

There might be some very heavily Arab precincts in Dearborn to track down, I guess. If that's a good sample, which it probably isn't...

It's a shockingly poor sample, though those precincts were Bush-Kerry-Obama.

[tallguy23]

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I live in Los Angeles and know quite a few Iranian-Americans. They tend to be very assimilated, very educated, and have high household incomes. They aren't particularly as religious compared to other Muslims and they vote strongly for Democrats. 100% of the Iranian-Americans I know supported Obama, even in the primaries.

[Stranger in a strange land]

There might be some very heavily Arab precincts in Dearborn to track down, I guess. If that's a good sample, which it probably isn't...

It's a shockingly poor sample, though those precincts were Bush-Kerry-Obama.

also, correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't most Detroit-area Arabs Christian? I seem to recall that Michigan as a whole isn't notably more Muslim than the national average.

[Хahar 🤔]

There might be some very heavily Arab precincts in Dearborn to track down, I guess. If that's a good sample, which it probably isn't...

It's a shockingly poor sample, though those precincts were Bush-Kerry-Obama.

also, correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't most Detroit-area Arabs Christian? I seem to recall that Michigan as a whole isn't notably more Muslim than the national average.

Yes, as with most Arabs in general, but Dearborn is very Muslim.

[bgwah]

Dearborn:
2000: 51.69% Bush, 43.98% Gore, 3.60% Nader
2004: 58.55% Kerry, 39.95% Bush
2008: About 66% Obama, 34% McCain (third party data missing)

[phk]

There might be some very heavily Arab precincts in Dearborn to track down, I guess. If that's a good sample, which it probably isn't...

It's a shockingly poor sample, though those precincts were Bush-Kerry-Obama.

also, correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't most Detroit-area Arabs Christian? I seem to recall that Michigan as a whole isn't notably more Muslim than the national average.

Yes, as with most Arabs in general, but Dearborn is very Muslim.

Dearborn Arabs are mostly Iraqi and Lebanese Shi'ites (these guys bigtime) and a few Yemenite Sunnis.

Arab Christians have a huge concentration in Massachusetts though.

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I live in Los Angeles and know quite a few Iranian-Americans. They tend to be very assimilated, very educated, and have high household incomes. They aren't particularly as religious compared to other Muslims and they vote strongly for Democrats. 100% of the Iranian-Americans I know supported Obama, even in the primaries.

As per polling from the PAIAA (Persian American Institute or something) only 42% of Iranian-Americans self-identify as Muslim.

[patrick1]

There might be some very heavily Arab precincts in Dearborn to track down, I guess. If that's a good sample, which it probably isn't...

It's a shockingly poor sample, though those precincts were Bush-Kerry-Obama.

also, correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't most Detroit-area Arabs Christian? I seem to recall that Michigan as a whole isn't notably more Muslim than the national average.

Yes, as with most Arabs in general, but Dearborn is very Muslim.

Dearborn Arabs are mostly Iraqi and Lebanese Shi'ites (these guys bigtime) and a few Yemenite Sunnis.

Arab Christians have a huge concentration in Massachusetts though.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I live in Los Angeles and know quite a few Iranian-Americans. They tend to be very assimilated, very educated, and have high household incomes. They aren't particularly as religious compared to other Muslims and they vote strongly for Democrats. 100% of the Iranian-Americans I know supported Obama, even in the primaries.

As per polling from the PAIAA (Persian American Institute or something) only 42% of Iranian-Americans self-identify as Muslim.

Curious, did that poll Persian Jews as well.

[phk]

Yeah, they were around 4 to 6 percent. When I get back home I will dig up the complete poll.

[phk]

Iranian-American Religous Landscape
Muslim   42%
Other 31%
Christian  9%
Baha’i   7%
Jewish    6%
Zoroastrian   5%

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Another issue is that "Muslim", like "Asian", picks out some quite distinct cultural groups. Arabs in Dearborn don't have a huge amount in common with, say, Somalis in Minneapolis.

Somalis in Minneapolis hardly ever vote, most aren't even eligible. So they wouldn't be much of a factor.

[phk]

It would pretty much have to be weighted voting and partisan preferences along this line.

South Asians: 26%
Arab Americans: 26%
Other: 26%
African-Americans: 24%

Total: 100%

Now in terms of the 2000 election.

South Asian preferences could be seen as Bush > Gore~Nader (mostly indifference, but slight preference to Gore)

Arab-American preferences could be seen as Bush > Nader~Gore (mostly indifference, but more slightly more preference shown to Nader)

Other preferences could be seen as Bush > Gore > Nader

African-American preferences could be seen as Gore > Bush > Nader

Assuming one person in each group. Bush could realistically see himself getting 75% of the Muslim vote if everybody voted their particular preference.

[bgwah]

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I live in Los Angeles and know quite a few Iranian-Americans. They tend to be very assimilated, very educated, and have high household incomes. They aren't particularly as religious compared to other Muslims and they vote strongly for Democrats. 100% of the Iranian-Americans I know supported Obama, even in the primaries.

Aren't many of the Iranians in the Los Angeles area Jewish? Particularly in Beverly Hills?

[phk]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I live in Los Angeles and know quite a few Iranian-Americans. They tend to be very assimilated, very educated, and have high household incomes. They aren't particularly as religious compared to other Muslims and they vote strongly for Democrats. 100% of the Iranian-Americans I know supported Obama, even in the primaries.

Aren't many of the Iranians in the Los Angeles area Jewish? Particularly in Beverly Hills?

Yes. This thread is getting particularly annoying. Information aggregation seems to be a little off.