Australian Election Prediction Contest

[Smid]

The Mayor of Montreal runs for council, but, if elected as Mayor, sits as Mayor and not in Council.

"What does this have to do with anything Teddy?"

The 151st seat can be for the Prime Minister. The idea would be that you run a second party candidate in the PM's seat, and have them preferenced #2 on all party votes. Therefore when the PM wins the nationwide seat, he/she is removed from balloting, and their "fill in" gets the seat.

Brisbane City Council is basically the same - the Mayor is elected by popular vote from across the city, while the 26 Councillors each represent a single ward. Only problem is it may mean that the PM is running from outside the Parliament, or otherwise a long-term MP who can't run for their seat may have to give up their career if they lose the PM-ship, discouraging quality candidates.

[You kip if you want to...]

I guess we all got Batman wrong for the bonus points. I don't see anyone guessing Denison for biggest wing. AV is just strange.

So strange that in 145/150 seats, it performed perfectly and ensured an absolutely democratic, quick and correct count and result, and in the other 5 a truly democratic outcome will be reached within days, ensuring every voter's voice is heard properly.

I know I tend to be a bit too parochial, but I genuinely believe that the AEC and the Australian electoral system are as close to perfect as they can be. Add a 151st seat (or remove the 150th) and tweak the senate voting system so people can number every box above the line should they chose to do so, and I'd reckon it'd be perfect.

It's decent, I don't really like the whole thing of the Greens getting 11.5% but only 0.66% of the seats though.

[YL]

I guess we all got Batman wrong for the bonus points. I don't see anyone guessing Denison for biggest wing. AV is just strange.

So strange that in 145/150 seats, it performed perfectly and ensured an absolutely democratic, quick and correct count and result, and in the other 5 a truly democratic outcome will be reached within days, ensuring every voter's voice is heard properly.

I know I tend to be a bit too parochial, but I genuinely believe that the AEC and the Australian electoral system are as close to perfect as they can be. Add a 151st seat (or remove the 150th) and tweak the senate voting system so people can number every box above the line should they chose to do so, and I'd reckon it'd be perfect.

Looking in from the outside (and having some familiarity with STV as practised in Northern Ireland) the above the line system in the Senate and the compulsory full preferencing seem a bit weird, and seem to produce occasional peculiar results, like Victoria in 2004 and apparently again this time.

[Senator MaxQue]

The Mayor of Montreal runs for council, but, if elected as Mayor, sits as Mayor and not in Council.

"What does this have to do with anything Teddy?"

The 151st seat can be for the Prime Minister. The idea would be that you run a second party candidate in the PM's seat, and have them preferenced #2 on all party votes. Therefore when the PM wins the nationwide seat, he/she is removed from balloting, and their "fill in" gets the seat.

Brisbane City Council is basically the same - the Mayor is elected by popular vote from across the city, while the 26 Councillors each represent a single ward. Only problem is it may mean that the PM is running from outside the Parliament, or otherwise a long-term MP who can't run for their seat may have to give up their career if they lose the PM-ship, discouraging quality candidates.

Not in Montreal. The candidate to mayorship can "co-list" a candidate in a ward.
In short, the party runs a candidate, but the candidate can be replaced by the losing candidate to mayorship without a by-election.

[Secretary Polnut]

I guess we all got Batman wrong for the bonus points. I don't see anyone guessing Denison for biggest wing. AV is just strange.

So strange that in 145/150 seats, it performed perfectly and ensured an absolutely democratic, quick and correct count and result, and in the other 5 a truly democratic outcome will be reached within days, ensuring every voter's voice is heard properly.

I know I tend to be a bit too parochial, but I genuinely believe that the AEC and the Australian electoral system are as close to perfect as they can be. Add a 151st seat (or remove the 150th) and tweak the senate voting system so people can number every box above the line should they chose to do so, and I'd reckon it'd be perfect.

It's decent, I don't really like the whole thing of the Greens getting 11.5% but only 0.66% of the seats though.

Think of it this way, like the Lib Dems in the UK - the Greens vote is spread throughout the country, while the LibDems have areas of strength like down in Cornwall, the Greens are only now getting traction in higher-educated, more affluent areas of the major cities - so seats like Melbourne, Grayndler and Sydney are being targeted.

The regional thing allows parties like the Nationals to get a 1/3 of the vote of the Greens (4%) and have 7x the number of seats (assuming you don't count Wilkie as an 'Independent Green'.

It's the problem of being broadly popular, without being able to claim a 'heartland' of your own. 

[Sibboleth]

Does the 4% figures for the Nats include the Queensland seats were the LNP candidates were conservatives of the tractor variety?

[Secretary Polnut]

LNP - 8.9% total nationally (but only in QLD though)
NAT - 3.9% total nationally (but not in QLD)