Saturday, August 21, 2010 - Australian Federal Election

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

random question: are voters required to number all boxes on the ballot for the House?

[Sibboleth]

random question: are voters required to number all boxes on the ballot for the House?

Yes

[Platypus]

random question: are voters required to number all boxes on the ballot for the House?

Yes

well, to be pedantic, yes if they want their vote to count

[Smid]

random question: are voters required to number all boxes on the ballot for the House?

No.

According to page 7 of the Electoral Commission's Ballot Paper Formality Guidelines:

A House of Representatives ballot paper is only formal if the voter has indicated a first preference and consecutively numbered all boxes. A number in the series may not be repeated or skipped.

If one box is left blank and all other boxes have been numbered in a consecutive sequence starting with the number '1,' the ballot paper is formal.

Alterations to numbers will not make a ballot paper informal, provided the voter's intention is clear, for example a number can be crossed out and another number written beside it.

(empahsis mine).

So effectively yes, every box needs to be numbered, but they aren't pedantic if the final box is left un-numbered.

Numbers don't have to be in the boxes, numbers can be spelt (eg. 1, two, 3, 4, five would be formal), basically they work off three guidelines:

1. Is the ballot paper authentic?
2. Does the ballot paper identify the voter?
3. Does the ballot paper contain a lawful numbering sequence?

Additionally:

1. Err on the side of the franchise
In the situation where the voter has tried to submit a formal vote, ie the ballot paper is not blank or defaced, questions of formality should, wherever possible, be resolved in the voter's favour.

2. Only have regard to what is written on the ballot paper
The intention of the voter must be unmistakeable, ie do not assume what the voter was trying to do if it's not clear - only consider what was written on the ballot paper.

3. The ballot paper should be construed as a whole
By considering the number in each square as one in a series, not as an isolated number, a poorly formed number MAY be recognisable as the one missing from the series.

[Smid]

Just saw this on Facebook - a sneak peek at Channel Nine's virtual parliament for their election coverage. Of course, I think ABC will have better coverage, but you might still like this.

http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/08/19/virtual-election/

[Sibboleth]

Newspoll: 50/50.
Galaxy: ALP 52

[You kip if you want to...]

Newspoll: 50/50.
Galaxy: ALP 52

The polls are swinging back to the Coalition. This is gonna be very close.

[State Comptroller Atkins]

How many more polls can we expect to be released?

[Secretary Polnut]

There might be a Nielsen poll out tomorrow.

This is really is going to be nervewracking...

[You kip if you want to...]

There might be a Nielsen poll out tomorrow.

This is really is going to be nervewracking...

This really could be one of those "stealing defeat from the jaws of victory" moments...

[Secretary Polnut]

Watching Gillard speak she knows how close this is going to be - Abbott got the endorsement of the News Limited papers in Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne. It's expected the Melbourne Age and the Sydney Morning Herald will endorse Gillard tomorrow. 

[Dan the Roman]

I would not be surprised if the two-party vote is off. South Australia should be a warning in that respect. Of course, I expect a late swing to Gillard.

[Sibboleth]

I would not be surprised if the two-party vote is off. South Australia should be a warning in that respect.

And the federal elections of 1998 and 1990 as well, of course. It's not that strange for an incumbent government to do better in terms of seats than its 2PP vote would indicate; which isn't to say that that happening is certain or anything.

[Secretary Polnut]

The difference was that in 1998 - there was a massive majority which allowed for a buffer, and 1990 relied entirely on Democrat preferences... as this one might be on Green preferences.

Labor can win 2PP vote and lose... easily.

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

I expect the Green vote to fall quite a bit. It's like, what, 12% in polls now? It should be 8-10% on election day. Just look at Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania and all that.

I don't know about the average Australian voter, but I assume there's a few who don't get the gist of pref voting all that well and will vote 1 ALP instead of 1 Green to prevent a Coalition victory.

[Secretary Polnut]

No, I agree that the Green vote won't stay at 14% - probably somewhere between 9-11%, which means the Labor primary vote will likely rebound a little.

It's not really an issue of not understanding how pref. voting works, it's more about people going in and just not being able to vote for the Greens... I'm voting Green 1st preference and Green above the line in the Senate. But the ALP will be second preference in the House. I agree with the Greens on public transport, gay marriage, being more agressive on climate change (frankly I think their policy is too strong)... but I don't trust them to run the economy... hence why I think it's better to have them in the Senate to temper bad policy.

There's actually a great article on the ABC election website - talking about the tactical voting in the ACT Senate, which shows that ALP voters are comfortable enough that there's enough for the one senate seat, that many vote for the Greens instead...  but since there's a rock-solid 30% liberal vote in the ACT, it makes the Greens job so much harder

[redcommander]

Looks like there is a very good chance of a hung parliament. BTW When will election coverage start so we can tune in online?

[Secretary Polnut]

Polls close at 6pm AEST, but you won't get meaningful results until after 7pm... which is 5am US EDT

[redcommander]

Polls close at 6pm AEST, but you won't get meaningful results until after 7pm... which is 5am US EDT

Thanks.

[JoeBrayson]

If there is a hung parliament or a small majority for either party, could we see another election within the next year?

[Secretary Polnut]

Party discipline is pretty strong so a small majority is probably workable. A minority Government will be more problematic, it's still possible that one of the independents (or if the Green wins Melbourne) decides to have some kind of hissy-fit.

[Sibboleth]

Two more polls show ALP 51-49.

[Sibboleth]

And apparently Nielsen's last poll is ALP 52-48.

[Smid]

Apparently Newspoll out tomorrow will show Labor on 29% primary vote in Queensland...

I made a prediction for the comp the other night and PM'd it to Hugh. I came up with a hung parliament using Antony Greens UNS (statewide) and then adjusting marginal seats I think are in the "wrong" column. I had Labor with 74, Greens with 1, and of course the three independents. ALL of the pundits on Sky News tonight said they thought Abbott won the campaign (including Graeme Richardson). They also reported that some other pundits were suggesting that a hung parliament is a distinct possibility.

[You kip if you want to...]

Morgan phone poll has it at 51-49 to Labor on primaries of 42 38 13 to the Coalition.

State breakdowns show a hung parliament with Labor one seat short.

Surely Gillard's lead on prefered Prime Minister implies that the ALP will sweep undecideds, right?