US Economy Lost only 11,000 Jobs in November

[Lief 🗽]

By JAVIER C. HERNANDEZ
Published: December 4, 2009

The United States economy shed 11,000 jobs in November, and the unemployment rate fell to 10 percent, down from 10.2 percent in October, the Labor Department said Friday.

The government also revised the October number to show that the economy lost 111,000 jobs instead on 190,000.Though pace of job loss has been declining since a peak in January, the November number was surprising. Economists have been expecting a turning point to come in the late spring or summer, with employers finally adding workers as a recovery takes hold. The last time the number was this good was December, 2007, when the economy added 120,000 jobs. “We’re moving toward stability in the labor market and the end of the tremendous firing that has plagued America,” said Allen L. Sinai, the founder of Decision Economics, a research firm. “But it’s going to be bleak for years. While it is going to be better than what we’ve seen, it’s still going to be terrible.”

A large number of employees are working fewer hours than they would like because many companies are operating below capacity and have resisted adding staff until orders turn up and the incipient recovery seems likely to endure. Indeed, a broader measure of unemployment fell in November to 17.2 percent, from 17.5 percent in October. This broader measure covers not only those seeking work but those whose hours have been cut and those too discouraged to look for work.

The number of Americans facing long-term unemployment, which includes people who cannot find work for 27 weeks or more, has been at record highs in recent months, reaching 5.6 million in October. It was more than 5.9 million people in November, or 38.3 of percent of those unemployed. Once hiring resumes, those workers are likely to be among the last to land jobs.

“You create this class of people who essentially become permanently unemployed and can’t get back in,” said Nigel Gault, chief domestic economist at IHS Global Insight. “You have people who have lost contact with the labor market, whose skills are not relevant for jobs for the future, who employers regard with skepticism because they have been out of work for so long.”

In recent months, the economy has shown modest signs of stability in manufacturing and construction — each a big source of job loss in the nearly two years since the recession began. But consumer spending remains tepid even as holiday shopping gets under way.

On Thursday, President Obama convened a jobs summit and said he would announce proposals next week to strengthen employment. “We cannot hang back and hope for the best,” the president said, though he added “our resources are limited.”

Economists generally say that the worst of the recession has passed, and most forecast mild growth into next year. But that does not change the economic reality for millions of Americans, who must deal with piles of unpaid bills, worries about unexpected medical expenses and concerns about losing their homes.

Kathy M. Henry, 39, who lives in a subsidized apartment on the South Side of Chicago, was laid off from her job as an administrative assistant at an advertising agency two years ago. Since then, she says, she has applied for more than 500 jobs. She has received a $1,200 monthly unemployment check since August of last year, which she describes as not enough to support herself and two of her children who live with her.

“It’s a constant cycle,” she said. “I’ve applied everywhere, from big corporations to minute corporations, and I don’t even get an e-mail back. I’m worried people see me as old and out of touch and decrepit.”

Earlier this week, Ms. Henry’s son, a high school senior, came home with a packet of class photographs. The $40 cost was beyond her means, she said, so she decided against purchasing a memento of her son’s senior year.

In Canada on Friday, the government reported that the country’s economy added more jobs than expected in November, erasing the losses in October. Statistics Canada reported a net employment gain of 79,000 in November, topping expectations of a 15,000 gain. The unemployment rate fell to 8.5 percent from 8.6 percent in October.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/05/business/economy/05jobs.html?_r=1&hp

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

and the priior two months were revised to show 140k less jobs lost...the unemployment rate may still move up to ~10.5% over the next few months as people come back into the workforce, but the trend in job growth/loss is good.

[Sam Spade]

I don't pay attention to the headline numbers, but...

There are actually a couple of good important internals ("green shoots"?) in this report, but as my usual reminder (which I also made with the July report), you need confirmation of these positive moves for the next couple of months, otherwise it's just statistical noise.  Especially February, which is the benchmark survey (i.e. no "statistical adjustment" garbage).

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

the best news is that the non-seasonally adjusted numbers showed only -19k loss...much much better than expected

[Lief 🗽]

I don't pay attention to the headline numbers, but...

There are actually a couple of good important internals ("green shoots"?) in this report, but as my usual reminder (which I also made with the July report), you need confirmation of these positive moves for the next couple of months, otherwise it's just statistical noise.  Especially February, which is the benchmark survey (i.e. no "statistical adjustment" garbage).

Do you still believe there's a non-negligible chance that our economy and government will totally collapse/be replaced with fascism?

[Marokai Backbeat]

Very, very, very good news.

[opebo]

I ...(i.e. ...garbage).

Do you still believe there's a non-negligible chance that our economy and government will totally collapse/be replaced with fascism?

Haha, just wishful thinking, or maybe a sort of misunderstanding.

[memphis]

It's beginning to look like the 2010 midterms won't be too bad after all. Kind of funny how the nation can lose jobs but have unemployment go down.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Very, very, very good news.

Oh yeah, we lost only 11,000 jobs, that's "very, very, very good news" by the standards of Obamanation.

[Alexander Hamilton]

Very, very, very good news.

Oh yeah, we lost only 11,000 jobs, that's "very, very, very good news" by the standards of Obamanation.

It's impossible for him to lose his, though.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Very, very, very good news.

Oh yeah, we lost only 11,000 jobs, that's "very, very, very good news" by the standards of Obamanation.

Yeah, I call that good news.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Very, very, very good news.

Oh yeah, we lost only 11,000 jobs, that's "very, very, very good news" by the standards of Obamanation.

It's impossible for him to lose his, though.

But of course. Business is booming in general in Washington, D.C. The worse off the rest of the country (a.k.a. the productive class) is, the better off the government tax-feeders (a.k.a. the parasitic class) get.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Very, very, very good news.

Oh yeah, we lost only 11,000 jobs, that's "very, very, very good news" by the standards of Obamanation.

Yeah, I call that good news.

But of course you do. You'll jump for whatever scraps your Obamessiah throws you.

[Marokai Backbeat]

If, in your twisted little mind, the lowest job losses since the recession began, and going from losing over 700,000 jobs in January to losing 11,000 jobs in December, (as well as finally increasing the number of average hours worked) is not good news, then I don't think there's any hope for you at all.

It's nothing to throw a party over, but in the last year, this is great news and shows things have been improving.

[Alexander Hamilton]

If, in your twisted little mind, the lowest job losses since the recession began, and going from losing over 700,000 jobs in January to losing 11,000 jobs in December, (as well as finally increasing the number of average hours worked) is not good news, then I don't think there's any hope for you at all.

It's nothing to throw a party over, but in the last year, this is great news and shows things have been improving.

'

Are you going to finally get one? My grandkids are sick of feeding you.

[Marokai Backbeat]

If, in your twisted little mind, the lowest job losses since the recession began, and going from losing over 700,000 jobs in January to losing 11,000 jobs in December, (as well as finally increasing the number of average hours worked) is not good news, then I don't think there's any hope for you at all.

It's nothing to throw a party over, but in the last year, this is great news and shows things have been improving.

Are you going to finally get one? My grandkids are sick of feeding you.

I don't think you'll have to worry about having grandkids if all you can do is make 200 posts a day.

[Alexander Hamilton]

If, in your twisted little mind, the lowest job losses since the recession began, and going from losing over 700,000 jobs in January to losing 11,000 jobs in December, (as well as finally increasing the number of average hours worked) is not good news, then I don't think there's any hope for you at all.

It's nothing to throw a party over, but in the last year, this is great news and shows things have been improving.

Are you going to finally get one? My grandkids are sick of feeding you.

I don't think you'll have to worry about having grandkids if all you can do is make 200 posts a day.

You'd be surprised.

[opebo]

But of course. Business is booming in general in Washington, D.C. The worse off the rest of the country (a.k.a. the productive class) is, the better off the government tax-feeders (a.k.a. the parasitic class) get.

Oh lordy.  Try reading something besides Rand for a change, bert. 

[CARLHAYDEN]

and the priior two months were revised to show 140k less jobs lost...the unemployment rate may still move up to ~10.5% over the next few months as people come back into the workforce, but the trend in job growth/loss is good.

Now, how the number of jobs can decrease and the unemployment rate can decrease at the same time?

According to Bureau of Labor Statistics of the United States Department of Labor (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm) here is how its done:

What you do is decrease the “civilian labor force” off of which you base your U-3 unemployment rate.  You do this by increasing the number of people “not in the labor force.”

So, even though the “Employment-population ratio” is unchanged (well, actually slightly worse in the “Seasonally adjusted” numbers), you have statistically reduced the  unemployment rate, while the number of unemployed increases!

For this statistical sleight of hand to work, it is important to make sure the reader doesn’t check the U-1 measure of persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, which actually went up from  5.7 to 5.9%

Now, some analysts (like U.S. News & World Report) will note that:

The report doesn't match up with other jobs data: Today's report will no doubt be a head scratcher for economists as they try to understand how other labor market data could be so divergent. Earlier in the week, ADP reported private payroll losses of 169,000 for November. The Monster Employment Index, which measures online job demand, actually dipped slightly from October's number. "This was a shocking report because the reported payroll data bear little resemblance to any other evidence concerning the labor market, including the ADP survey, which is based on hard data from a much wider sample of payrolls than is the government's survey," says Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at research firm MFR.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The earlier numbers were revised upwards a fair amount, so the estimate on the number of jobs in this country increased.

However, losing 11,000 jobs still isn't positive, and certainly isn't the 120-150k needed to break even with normal growth in the labor pool.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

But of course. Business is booming in general in Washington, D.C. The worse off the rest of the country (a.k.a. the productive class) is, the better off the government tax-feeders (a.k.a. the parasitic class) get.

Oh lordy.  Try reading something besides Rand for a change, bert. 

WTF does what I said have to do with Rand?

[MK]

Only 11,000 lost. 



It has more to do with theres really not much left to cut.   This is not good news.

[Mint]

Only 11,000 lost.  



It has more to do with theres really not much left to cut.   This is not good news.

It's worse when you consider long term unemployment just continues to worsen. Just because losses have 'slowed' or the rate is 'down' now doesn't mean people are magically finding jobs. But I think another massive double dip is on the horizon so what do I know.

[Alexander Hamilton]

...