If the Winner of Each Primary's Popular Vote was the Nominee
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 24, 2024, 04:40:37 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderator: Dereich)
  If the Winner of Each Primary's Popular Vote was the Nominee
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: If the Winner of Each Primary's Popular Vote was the Nominee  (Read 1645 times)
RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,776


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: December 05, 2009, 05:52:40 PM »
« edited: December 06, 2009, 12:43:44 AM by realisticidealist »

Let's say that instead of being controlled by party insiders, the presidential nominating process was decided by the winner of the popular vote of all the primaries. Here are the elections that would have been different:

1912: Woodrow Wilson (D-NJ) vs. Theodore Roosevelt (R-NY)
1916: Woodrow Wilson (D-NJ) vs. Martin Brumbaugh (R-PA)
1920: Alexander Mitchell Palmer (D-PA) vs. Hiram Johnson (R-CA)
1924: William McAdoo (D-CA) vs. Calvin Coolidge (R-MA)
1932: Franklin Roosevelt (D-NY) vs. Joseph France (R-MD)
1936: Franklin Roosevelt (D-NY) vs. William Borah (R-ID)
1940: Franklin Roosevelt (D-NY) vs. Thomas Dewey (R-NY)
1944: Franklin Roosevelt (D-NY) vs. Douglas MacArthur (R-AR)
1948: Harry Truman (D-MO) vs. Earl Warren (R-CA)
1952: Estes Kefauver (D-TN) vs. Robert Taft (R-OH)
1968: Eugene McCarthy (D-MN) vs. Ronald Reagan (R-CA)
1972: Hubert Humphrey (D-MN) vs. Richard Nixon (R-CA)*
2008: Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. John McCain (R-AZ)*

*Does not include caucuses as explained below.

How would any of these races have turned out? Pick any VPs, any necessary third party candidates, and assume that these elections are in isolation from one another.
Logged
aaaa2222
yoman82
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 305


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: December 05, 2009, 08:10:51 PM »

Obama won the popular vote in 2008 in the primaries.
Logged
#CriminalizeSobriety
Dallasfan65
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,859


Political Matrix
E: 5.48, S: -9.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: December 05, 2009, 10:23:35 PM »
« Edited: December 05, 2009, 10:28:55 PM by Dallasfan65 »


For 1952.

Might be a bit off, i'm a tad drunk right now, ill edit my post for some more later.



1972
Logged
RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,776


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: December 05, 2009, 11:58:27 PM »

Obama won the popular vote in 2008 in the primaries.

Only if you include caucuses. For historical continuity purposes, I am not doing so.
Logged
Alexander Hamilton
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,167
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: -5.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: December 06, 2009, 12:04:11 AM »

Obama won the popular vote in 2008 in the primaries.

Only if you include caucuses. For historical continuity purposes, I am not doing so.

Caucuses are flawed anyways. Look at Texas. Obama won the caucus, yet the voices of the people [the primary] gave Hillary a clear victory.
Logged
HappyWarrior
hannibal
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,058


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -0.35

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: December 06, 2009, 12:05:57 AM »

Obama won the popular vote in 2008 in the primaries.

Only if you include caucuses. For historical continuity purposes, I am not doing so.

So you are just throwing out those people's votes Huh
Logged
RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,776


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: December 06, 2009, 12:41:15 AM »

Obama won the popular vote in 2008 in the primaries.

Only if you include caucuses. For historical continuity purposes, I am not doing so.

So you are just throwing out those people's votes Huh

The problem with caucuses is one of recording, not of legitimacy. Caucuses, being run by individual parties, place little value on historical preservation of data. Because of this, data for many caucuses throughout history is completely unobtainable. This means that the true primary plus caucus vote total for various years, especially further back in the past, is unknowable. In order to be fair, I disregarded all caucuses. If you include caucuses, you could throw out 2008 and possibly 1972, but the simple fact is that we just can't know for certain even which states held caucuses in which years. I've run into this problem perpetually in my primary data project.

It matters not to me if you want to include 2008, the question still remains open for all the other contests.
Logged
Alexander Hamilton
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,167
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: -5.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: December 06, 2009, 12:46:05 AM »

Caucuses throw out people's votes, you twerp.

Look at Texas in 2008.
Logged
Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
Libertas
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,899
Finland


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: December 06, 2009, 01:09:05 AM »

Why do parties continue to get away with having such non-democratic 'caucuses' any way?

All it basically does is to allow the party establishment to still decide the nominee in those old smoke-filled rooms, while giving off the illusion of democracy for the masses.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: December 06, 2009, 03:37:57 AM »

Even if you ignore caucuses, doesn't Clinton only win the 2008 popular vote if you include the rogue primaries in Florida and Michigan?
Logged
RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,776


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: December 06, 2009, 10:24:39 AM »

Look, I am asking about twelve races besides 2008 as well.

Historically, there is no such thing as a rogue primary. Delegateless races or uncontested races have always been included in the popular vote total of past primaries. For political purposes, sure, you could make that argument, but this is not the discussion I would rather have.

Is anyone going to actually make maps in this thread?
Logged
Alexander Hamilton
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,167
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: -5.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: December 06, 2009, 07:13:16 PM »

Even if you ignore caucuses, doesn't Clinton only win the 2008 popular vote if you include the rogue primaries in Florida and Michigan?


Rogue primaries? They were legitimate elections with legitimate ballots open to any voter who was eligible to vote for the primary.
Logged
HappyWarrior
hannibal
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,058


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -0.35

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: December 06, 2009, 11:35:56 PM »

Even if you ignore caucuses, doesn't Clinton only win the 2008 popular vote if you include the rogue primaries in Florida and Michigan?


Rogue primaries? They were legitimate elections with legitimate ballots open to any voter who was eligible to vote for the primary.

Other than the fact that they broke the laws of the parties.
Logged
Lahbas
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 568
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: December 10, 2009, 04:16:00 AM »

1912

Despite his popularity, many Taft conservatives might likely have found themselves voting for Wilson rather than the Progressive Roosevelt in this election.
1920

No hope for Palmer after his little raids. Actually, despite the Progressiveness of Johnson, would likely translate into a larger win for the Republicans.
Logged
Lahbas
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 568
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: December 10, 2009, 04:42:18 AM »

1924

Was not a Democratic year. La Follete manages to upset McAdoo in a great many states largely due to his appeal to liberal Democrats, while Coolidge, even though he doesn't campaign, is popular in himself.
1932

Not much difference. The Republicans in general were being blamed for the Depression at this point, and even though France might have picked up a few additional votes, I would not be nearly enough.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.055 seconds with 12 queries.