Ukraine 2010

[Judäischen Volksfront]

Is there anywhere in the history of the world where the incumbent performs so poorly while running for re-election?

[platypeanArchcow]

Wow, Ukrainian is hilarious.  (If you're Russian, of course.)  The word for "independent [of party]" appears to mean something like "beyond parties", sort of in a spatial way, like what you see to your left when you've walked past all the parties.  And the word for "nominated by [a party]" is cognate to a Russian word meaning "stick out [e.g. your tongue]".

[ag]

Is there anywhere in the history of the world where the incumbent performs so poorly while running for re-election?

Probably, not. Though he should clear 5% in the end. And he does seem to manage to win a few of the electoral districts.

[ag]

Wow, Ukrainian is hilarious.  (If you're Russian, of course.)  The word for "independent [of party]" appears to mean something like "beyond parties", sort of in a spatial way, like what you see to your left when you've walked past all the parties.  And the word for "nominated by [a party]" is cognate to a Russian word meaning "stick out [e.g. your tongue]".

Guess, what čerstvý chléb means in Czech. And, for that matter, how do czechs rank the roots for Russian smells: pakhnut', voniat', smerdet'

[ag]

http://www.cvk.gov.ua/vp2010/wp0011.html

The Ukrainian results website is actually pretty good; it displays a lot of information in a lot of different and interesting ways. Everything is in Cyrillic though.

In Ukrainian

[platypeanArchcow]

Wow, Ukrainian is hilarious.  (If you're Russian, of course.)  The word for "independent [of party]" appears to mean something like "beyond parties", sort of in a spatial way, like what you see to your left when you've walked past all the parties.  And the word for "nominated by [a party]" is cognate to a Russian word meaning "stick out [e.g. your tongue]".

Guess, what čerstvý chléb means in Czech. And, for that matter, how do czechs rank the roots for Russian smells: pakhnut', voniat', smerdet'

I've read about the first, yes.

[ag]

54.81% reporting. Both leaders a bit down.

Yanukovych 36.63%
Tymoshenko 24.39%
Tihipko 13.11%
Yatseniuk 6.84%
Yushchenko 4.87%
Symonenko 3.63%
Lytvyn 2.38%

I still think the final gap will be about 1% smaller.

[Tender Branson]

With 75% of the votes counted:

Viktor Yanukovych: 35.96%
Yulia Tymoshenko: 24.68%
Sergiy Tigipko: 13.00%
Arseniy Yatseniuk: 6.96%
Viktor Yuschenko: 5.24%

Turnout: 67%

[Tender Branson]

Kyiv, January 18 (Interfax-Ukraine) – European Parliament observers have recorded no serious violations in the first round of the presidential election in Ukraine, and said the polls were democratic and open, European Parliament observer Rebecca Harms said in an interview with Germany's international broadcaster Deutsche Welle on Monday.

"I have no doubt to think that manipulations were orchestrated in the presidential election," she said.

Harms pointed to the good organization of work by polling stations in Kyiv, which she had visited. She said that there were also no problems with voting at home.

"What I've observed is most likely the evidence of fair and transparent elections. The vote has been prepared very well here in Kyiv," Harms said.

She also said that there had also been no complaints from other European Parliament observers.

"It was unexpected that such a great number of Georgian observers wanted to monitor the election. No country sends so many observers. I have certain doubt. In my opinion, this story is a bit exaggerated, and I wouldn't attach such significance to it," she said.

She said that if all international observers confirm that the election was democratic, then all presidential candidates should recognize the election returns so that a second round runoff is also held in line with the "rules of the game."

Speaking about exit poll results, Harms said that they are evidence of the disillusionment of voters who have pinned high hopes on Viktor Yuschenko five years ago.

"People are very disappointed with Viktor Yuschenko and with Yuschenko's and Tymoshenko's ability to cooperate. If the former 'orange' voters voted for Yanukovych or [Sergiy] Tigipko, or other candidates, then I think that this is due to the fact that the leaders of the 'orange' camp have failed to give confidence to the people," she said.

[big bad fab]

Yanukovych will win with 55+ because he's now seen as a "stable" candidate, more "conservative" in the everyday meaning of the word.

I think Ukraine is far too divided these days to allow anybody to win a mandate of 55% or more.

Except if the West abstains even more than the East...
We'll see... You know that I like to make bold predictions sometimes, that prove, very often,... wrong !

[Vasall des Midas]

Wow, Ukrainian is hilarious.  (If you're Russian, of course.)  The word for "independent [of party]" appears to mean something like "beyond parties", sort of in a spatial way, like what you see to your left when you've walked past all the parties.  And the word for "nominated by [a party]" is cognate to a Russian word meaning "stick out [e.g. your tongue]".

Guess, what čerstvý chléb means in Czech. And, for that matter, how do czechs rank the roots for Russian smells: pakhnut', voniat', smerdet'

Translayshe or must I try and understand on my own?

[Hashemite]

Yanukovych will win with 55+ because he's now seen as a "stable" candidate, more "conservative" in the everyday meaning of the word.

I think Ukraine is far too divided these days to allow anybody to win a mandate of 55% or more.

Except if the West abstains even more than the East...
We'll see... You know that I like to make bold predictions sometimes, that prove, very often,... wrong !

Reports of low turnout in the west were greatly exaggerated. Turnout was highest in the two extreme points: Donetsk and surroundings and Galicia.

Yanukovych did poll 9% or so in Galicia, which is higher than his result in the 2004 runoffs there. Indicates that some westerners has voted for him, probably an indicator of the stability he represents.

[GMantis]

Wow, Ukrainian is hilarious.  (If you're Russian, of course.)  The word for "independent [of party]" appears to mean something like "beyond parties", sort of in a spatial way, like what you see to your left when you've walked past all the parties.  And the word for "nominated by [a party]" is cognate to a Russian word meaning "stick out [e.g. your tongue]".

Guess, what čerstvý chléb means in Czech. And, for that matter, how do czechs rank the roots for Russian smells: pakhnut', voniat', smerdet'

Translayshe or must I try and understand on my own?

Čerstvý chléb means fresh bread in Czech, but callous bread in Russian. But I don't get the other examples - as far as I can see, they mean "to stink" in both languages.

[Tender Branson]

Results of the 1st round by oblast (region):



Red: Yanukovych
Green: Tymoshenko

[Hashemite]

Where be results by oblast again?

[Tender Branson]

Where be results by oblast again?

http://www.cvk.gov.ua/vp2010/wp313pt001f01=700.html

I guess this will also be the map of the run-off, which would be identical to 2004.

Maybe Yanukovych has a very slight chance to flip Kirovohrad, but that's it.

Zakarpat is an interesting place as well, Yuschenko got "only" 67% there in 2004, in a region that was normally 90%+ for him and where Russians account for only 2% of the population.

Any reason why the Ukrainians there vote for Yanukovych by a bigger margin than elsewhere in the west ?

[Sibboleth]

Historically it wasn't part of Ukraine, if that helps.

[GMantis]

Where be results by oblast again?

http://www.cvk.gov.ua/vp2010/wp313pt001f01=700.html

I guess this will also be the map of the run-off, which would be identical to 2004.

Maybe Yanukovych has a very slight chance to flip Kirovohrad, but that's it.

Zakarpat is an interesting place as well, Yuschenko got "only" 67% there in 2004, in a region that was normally 90%+ for him and where Russians account for only 2% of the population.

Any reason why the Ukrainians there vote for Yanukovych by a bigger margin than elsewhere in the west ?

Maybe because they're not really Ukrainians?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rusyns
To summarize, they are mostly Uniates, with a somewhat different language and were also under Hungarian and not Polish influence like most of the Ukraine. They feel somewhat distinctive themselves and have sought autonomy in the past. Probably the rather strong Ukrainian nationalism of the current government have alienated them.

[Vasall des Midas]

The entire Ukraine is a sea of a particularly ugly shade of teal on that map. No red area is historically part of Ukraine (though they have a lot of Ukrainians living in them - even the essentially purely Russian-speaking areas at the eastern end had pluralities of Ukrainian self-identifiers since before Stalin drew the modern boundary.)

The surprising thing on that map is not that the Rusyns didn't like Tymoshenko. It's that she wins the Ukrainian part of the Bukovina.

[ag]

Being Uniate isn't what distinguishes the Transcarpatians: so are the Galicians, that's, in part, what defiens them so anti-Russian. But Rusyns are not quite Ukrainian, and there are lots of Rusyns in Transcarpatia. And there are also lots of Hungarians, Slovaks, etc., etc.

[ag]

Wow, Ukrainian is hilarious.  (If you're Russian, of course.)  The word for "independent [of party]" appears to mean something like "beyond parties", sort of in a spatial way, like what you see to your left when you've walked past all the parties.  And the word for "nominated by [a party]" is cognate to a Russian word meaning "stick out [e.g. your tongue]".

Guess, what čerstvý chléb means in Czech. And, for that matter, how do czechs rank the roots for Russian smells: pakhnut', voniat', smerdet'

Translayshe or must I try and understand on my own?

Čerstvý chléb means fresh bread in Czech, but callous bread in Russian. But I don't get the other examples - as far as I can see, they mean "to stink" in both languages.

Voniat' means to stink in Russian, but its cognate means to smell in Czech (or, at least, in Slovak). Pakhnut' means to smell in Russian, but its cognate means to stink in the Western tongues. The stinking ranking is reversed

[ag]

93.6% in. The things are converging to the final result - and to the threshold 10%

Yanukovych 35.39%
Tymoshenko 24.95%
Tihipko 13.02%
Yatseniuk 6.97%
Yushchenko 5.50%
Symonenko 3.54%
Lytvyn 2.33%
Tiahnybok 1.45%
Hrytsenko 1.21%

Everyone else under 0.5% each

It's going to be a very close run-off. My forecast: Yanukovich  wins by a bit under 51%

[GMantis]

The entire Ukraine is a sea of a particularly ugly shade of teal on that map. No red area is historically part of Ukraine (though they have a lot of Ukrainians living in them - even the essentially purely Russian-speaking areas at the eastern end had pluralities of Ukrainian self-identifiers since before Stalin drew the modern boundary.)

The surprising thing on that map is not that the Rusyns didn't like Tymoshenko. It's that she wins the Ukrainian part of the Bukovina.

Even more ironically Yanukovych won one of the electoral regions in this area and it is the only Romanian and Moldavian majority region of the four .
Chernivtisi Oblast results
Definitions of regions
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernivtsi_Oblast#Population_and_Demographics

[Vasall des Midas]

The entire Ukraine is a sea of a particularly ugly shade of teal on that map. No red area is historically part of Ukraine (though they have a lot of Ukrainians living in them - even the essentially purely Russian-speaking areas at the eastern end had pluralities of Ukrainian self-identifiers since before Stalin drew the modern boundary.)

The surprising thing on that map is not that the Rusyns didn't like Tymoshenko. It's that she wins the Ukrainian part of the Bukovina.

Even more ironically Yanukovych won one of the electoral regions in this area and it is the only Romanian and Moldavian majority region of the four .

So I noticed as well.

Definitions of regions
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernivtsi_Oblast#Population_and_Demographics

That's the piece of info I was missing.

[Hashemite]

To summarize, they are mostly Uniates, with a somewhat different language and were also under Hungarian and not Polish influence like most of the Ukraine. They feel somewhat distinctive themselves and have sought autonomy in the past. Probably the rather strong Ukrainian nationalism of the current government have alienated them.

Uniates are not only in Carpathia, they're also all over Galicia which is the most pro-west region in Ukraine. Galicia has always been a hotspot of Ukrainian nationalism or anti-Russian dissidence. Vienna encouraged Ukrainian nationalism to ward off Russian nationalism in the region, Poland's control before that led to the growth of intellectualism in urban and wealthy circles.

Galicia (and Uniates) have always voted in huge numbers for Tymoshenko, Yuschenko and so forth.