Ukraine 2010

[Tender Branson]

Presidential runoff gets underway in Ukraine

The second round of the fifth presidential election got underway in Ukraine on Sunday, February 7.

The voters are to decide who will head the state for the next five years - Leader of the Party of Regions Viktor Yanukovych or incumbent Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.

The winning candidate is the one that gains a simple majority of the vote.

Polling stations opened at 0800, and will remain open until 2000.

In Ukraine, over 33,000 polling stations have been set up and will be run by 225 district election commissions. A total of 113 polling stations have been formed in foreign countries.

A total of 3,780 official foreign observers will monitor the February 7 election.

Observers of the European Parliament, the Inter-Parliamentary Assembly of the Commonwealth of Independent States (IPA CIS), the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) have recorded no serious violations in the first round of the presidential election in Ukraine held on January 17, and said the polls were democratic and open.

Eighteen presidential candidates were battling for the country's top office in the first round of the election. Party of Regions leader Viktor Yanukovych garnered 35.32% of the vote (8,686,642 votes) and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko came second, capturing 25.05% of the vote (6,159,810 votes), according to the Central Election Commission's official result of the January 17 presidential election in Ukraine.

Sergiy Tigipko finished third with 13.05% (3,211,198) of the vote. A total of 2.2% (542,819) of voters voted for none of the 18 candidates.

A total of 36,968,041 people were included on the voting lists.

The number of voters who participated in the election was 24,588,268, and the number of ballots declared invalid was 450,765.

At the same time, European parliamentarians expressed concern on February 4 over last minute changes in the Ukrainian election laws. Two members of the European Parliament, Elmar Brok (European People's Party) and Charles Tannock (European Conservatives and Reformists) urged EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton to react and express protest because this law changes the election and election monitoring regulations.

EU High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton called on Ukraine's presidential candidates to ensure that the will of the people can once more be expressed at the polls on February 7.

On February 3, the Ukrainian parliament adopted a package of amendments to the law on presidential election, excluding a requirement that there be a quorum for election commissions. The amendments drop the requirement that a session of an electoral commission shall be regarded valid, if no less than two thirds of its members are present. They also imply certain changes in the procedure of forming the commissions. Elections commissions of higher levels shall be allowed to make decisions belonging to the terms of reference of a commissioner of a lower tier, should the lower tier commission be inactive. On polling day such matters shall be dealt with without delay.

On February 4, the amended election law was enacted by outgoing President Viktor Yuschenko.

The law came into force on February 5 and on the same day the parliamentary faction of the Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko (BYT) filed a plea with the Constitutional Court of Ukraine to declare unconstitutional the amendments to the presidential election law.

The results of seven nationwide exit polls are expected to be released just after the polling stations close at 2000.

The Central Election Commission is to release the official results of the first round of voting within ten days, but no later than the third day after the receipt of all election protocols from district election commissions.

The newly elected president should assume office no later than 30 days after the official publication of the final election results.

http://www.interfax.com.ua/eng/pr2010/287417778

[Tender Branson]

By 11.00 am, turnout was about 3 times higher in eastern Yanukovych areas like Luhansk and Donetsk (22%) than in western Tymoshenko areas like Transcarpathia and Rivne (6%).

[Tender Branson]

By 11.00 am, turnout was about 3 times higher in eastern Yanukovych areas like Luhansk and Donetsk (22%) than in western Tymoshenko areas like Transcarpathia and Rivne (6%).

This has moderated a bit now, as most electoral districts have reported their 11 am numbers:

Still, Transcarpathia has the lowest turnout at 9.4%, followed by Ivano-Frankivsk at 11.7% and the capital Kiev at 12.0%.

The highest turnout is in Luhansk at 24.3%, followed by Donezk at 22.8% and Mykolajiw at 20.7%.

The national rate was 17.5%, about 0.5% higher than in round 1.

[minionofmidas]

Although all of Ukraine is in the same time zone (EET, two hours ahead of GMT, one hour ahead of CMT. Seven hours ahead of Forum Time for you Amayricans) I can't help but wonder if the considerable difference in de facto time (you know, sun rising/setting hours) impacts that somewhat.

[minionofmidas]

Upon checking: It's not as bad as I thought it might be. Difference in sunrise times seems to be about ~65-70 minutes between the western and eastern ends of the country.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Tzdiff-Europe-winter.png

[Tender Branson]

Although all of Ukraine is in the same time zone (EET, two hours ahead of GMT, one hour ahead of CMT. Seven hours ahead of Forum Time for you Amayricans) I can't help but wonder if the considerable difference in de facto time (you know, sun rising/setting hours) impacts that somewhat.

This is probably balanced by the temperatures ...

In Donezk for example it has -15°C today, while in Lviv it has only -5°C ...

[ag]

Don't forget it's Sunday. In the morning the Wessies are in church, while the atheist Ossies have time to vote. Still,  every indication the West is behind, but the gap is always the highest in the morning.

[Tender Branson]

Overall turnout in Ukraine at 3pm was 49.9%, up by 2.3% compared with the first round.

Total turnout is now likely to be around 70% for the day.

Highest 3pm turnout: Donetsk (57.4%), Luhansk (57.1%), Zaporizhia (52.8%)

Lowest 3pm turnout: Transcarpathia (35.3%), Chernivtsi (44.5%), Kiev (44.9%)

[Tender Branson]

6 Exit Polls:

Yanukovych: 49-50%
Tymoshenko: 44-46%

[Meeker]

Looks like the crook won this time.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Looks like the crook won this time.

Thats not helpful. Both candidates are crooks.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Looks like the crook won this time.

Thats not helpful. Both candidates are crooks.

The good ole one if so.

[Silent Hunter]

Looks like the crook won this time.

Thats not helpful. Both candidates are crooks.

The pro-Russian guy won. That's not the best outcome in some ways.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Looks like the crook won this time.

Thats not helpful. Both candidates are crooks.

The pro-Russian guy won. That's not the best outcome in some ways.

They would have less natural gas problems perhaps...

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Looks like the crook won this time.

Right now the crook as President would be better than Timoshenko, who would in case of her win wield an absolute power. And she's no saint either. There would be at least balance than Kuchma bis in a skirt.

[ag]

W/ 40.2% of precincts reporting, we have, so far

Yanukovich 50.09%
Timoshenko 44.39%
Against all of the above 4.4%
Invalid 1.11%

Given the reporting pattern, I'd forecast, at this point, Yanukovich to win w/ a bit under 49% against Timoshenko at around 46%. I sincerely hope it's not any closer - otherwise, it's going to be ugly.

[ag]

W/ 49.6% of precincts reporting, we have, so far

Yanukovich 49.52%%
Timoshenko 44.85%
Against all of the above 4.49%
Invalid 1.12%

[ag]

W/ 61.71% of precincts reporting, we have, so far

Yanukovich 49.21%%
Timoshenko 45.15%
Against all of the above 4.49%
Invalid 1.13%

[ag]

W/ 67.21% of precincts reporting, we have, so far

Yanukovich 48.98%%
Timoshenko 45.37%
Against all of the above 4.49%
Invalid 1.14%

[ag]

W/ 74.43% of precincts reporting, we have, so far

Yanukovich 48.92%%
Timoshenko 45.42%
Against all of the above 4.49%
Invalid 1.16%

[ag]

W/ 83.95% of precincts reporting, we have, so far

Yanukovich 48.46%%
Timoshenko 45.87%
Against all of the above 4.47%
Invalid 1.17%

But looking at what's left, the gap is likely to grow again.

[Bo]

It looks like Yakunovich will win (forgive my spelling errors). Oh darn!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ag]

An interesting detail is, there are really no truly marginal regions in Ukraine. The weakest pro-Tymoshenko region is Zakarpat'ska (100% reporting): 51.66% Tymoshenko, 41.55% Yanukovich. The weakest pro-Yanukovich region is Kherson (94.73% reporting): 59.45% Yanukovich, 34.22% Tymoshenko. There is literally nothing inbetween these two.

[Tender Branson]

Results by Oblast (Region):



Yanukovych: Blue
Tymoshenko: Green

[minionofmidas]

It's not as if that map showed anything we yet need to know.

sort of waiting for the emergence of a political movement advocating a clean divorce, actually. Though what would the southeastern country be called? Tavriya? Novorossiya would be historically accuratish as well, but probably not go down so well...

ag, do you know how the Crimea Tatars vote?