Ukraine 2010

[Roma Caput Mundi]

Ukrainian electoral maps are so boring.

[Hashemite]

Ukrainian electoral maps are so boring.

Well, yeah, it's like the most polarized country electorally in Europe and one of the most polarized countries in the world (some African countries have elections which are run on ethnic lines and end up being very polarized. Sierra Leone comes to mind).

[ag]

If I am not mistaken, Crimean Tatars are VERY orange. They might be the bulk of Timoshenko's vote in Crimea. In fact, whatever shell Ukrainian nationalist organizations survive there, they are not infrequently manned by the Tatars. There is a small internal opposition, that would be pro-Russian, but overall this is a very organized community - and very pro-Ukrainian.

[ag]

Actually, it's not that simple. Crimea (bar the Tatars) is outright pro-Russian, but the rest of the country has a clear Ukrainian self-identification. The mining areas - Donets'k and Luhansk, of  course, are very regionalist, but already the big cities, such as Khar'kiv and Dnipropetrovs'k are much less so. Yes, the religious and linguistic divide is strong (and, largely, runs on the border of colonization: you can read the last 350-400 years of Ukrainian history off this map), but it is far from clear that anywhere, other than in Crimea, a secession referendum would be successful. 

[ag]

W/ 98.65% of precincts reporting, we have, so far

Yanukovich 48.63%%
Timoshenko 45.78%
Against all of the above 4.38%
Invalid 1.19%

The bulk of what's left is Crimea and Luhans'k. It's going to grow.

[Hashemite]

Actually, it's not that simple. Crimea (bar the Tatars) is outright pro-Russian, but the rest of the country has a clear Ukrainian self-identification. The mining areas - Donets'k and Luhansk, of  course, are very regionalist, but already the big cities, such as Khar'kiv and Dnipropetrovs'k are much less so. Yes, the religious and linguistic divide is strong (and, largely, runs on the border of colonization: you can read the last 350-400 years of Ukrainian history off this map), but it is far from clear that anywhere, other than in Crimea, a secession referendum would be successful. 

Yeah, it's an important point that. Only Crimea cannot be considered Ukrainian at any rate, other areas are Russian-speaking Ukrainian areas, while Crimea is not Ukrainian and it was one of the weakest regions in the independence referendum(s) in the early 90s (which easily got over 80% in all other regions but only 55% or so in Crimea)...

[Vasall des Midas]

Actually, it's not that simple. Crimea (bar the Tatars) is outright pro-Russian, but the rest of the country has a clear Ukrainian self-identification. The mining areas - Donets'k and Luhansk, of  course, are very regionalist, but already the big cities, such as Khar'kiv and Dnipropetrovs'k are much less so. Yes, the religious and linguistic divide is strong (and, largely, runs on the border of colonization: you can read the last 350-400 years of Ukrainian history off this map), but it is far from clear that anywhere, other than in Crimea, a secession referendum would be successful. 

Which is, of course, also why secession seems a much more reasonable idea than joining Russia.

Only Crimea cannot be considered Ukrainian at any rate, other areas are Russian-speaking Ukrainian areas

Not quite. The people are Russian speaking Ukrainians (a majority of them, anyhow), but the area is not part of the historical country Ukraine. It's the old Crimea Khanate - although outside the Crimea itself (and into adjoining parts of Eastern Ukraine proper) it was almost devoid of population just 300 years ago. A majority of the settlers after that came from Ukraine.

[ag]

Which is, of course, also why secession seems a much more reasonable idea than joining Russia.

The problem is, there is little reason for it to secede as a single country: there is little that unites it, aside from the relationship w/ Ukraine proper. Odessa, Khar'kiv, Simferopil and Donets'k don't have that much in common between them. Crimea would go Russian, and the rest would, as likely as not, split into 2 to 4 pieces. That is, probably, the reason why no major secessionist movement is emerging: there is no unifying idea of an alternative nationhood. Federalization of Ukraine would make a lot more sense.

 

[Vasall des Midas]

Yah, I guess so.

And then, of course, there is also the prospect of winning elections nationally. If that were impossible (for either side) we might see a whole different dynamic.

[Hashemite]

Now that Yanukovych has won, you might get new parliamentary elections or Yanukovych manages to get a PR majority in Parliament (probably through the support of the Communists and Lytvyn's party - the latter of which is now in the Tymoshenko government).

[ag]

Now that Yanukovych has won, you might get new parliamentary elections or Yanukovych manages to get a PR majority in Parliament (probably through the support of the Communists and Lytvyn's party - the latter of which is now in the Tymoshenko government).

A new Rada election is not guaranteed to give the Ossie majority. Note: Yanukovich got under 49% in a one-on-one race, w/ sizeable "non-of-the-above" vote. The electoral system for the Rada is PR w/ a 3% threshold, so a lot would depend on whose vote's getting splintered below that. And minor parties will still get to be decisive.

[jaichind]

Yanukovych's better bet might to be get enough defections from the current Timoshenko led MPs to switch over to support a coalition led by the Party of Regions.  Back on Feb 3 when Ukraine’s parliament approved changes to the election law three days before the final round of the presidential election which was opposed by Timoshenko is already a sign that she can longer command a real majority.  Now that Yanukovych seems to have won will make that pull even greater.  I reckon that the reason why Timoshenko has not cried fraud yet given how close the election was is that she wants to made a deal with Yanukovych where she stays on as PM.  She will threaten to undermine the result if she does not get her way.  I suspect Yanukovych will call her bluff by breaking her party with defections and her demonstrations will most likely fizzle out given the disunity between the  Yushchenko and Timoshenko in the old Orange coalition. 

Now that Yanukovych has won, you might get new parliamentary elections or Yanukovych manages to get a PR majority in Parliament (probably through the support of the Communists and Lytvyn's party - the latter of which is now in the Tymoshenko government).

[Tender Branson]

With 99.9% of the votes counted and with the rest mainly from Yanukovych areas, the final results will be:

Yanukovych: 49.0% (12.5 Mio. votes)
Tymoshenko: 45.4% (11.6 Mio. votes)
Against both: 4.4%
Invalid: 1.2%

Turnout: 69%

[Tender Branson]

Map by district:

[Vasall des Midas]

What's with the Yanukovich pockets near the Belorussian border? Belorussians?

[ag]

What's with the Yanukovich pockets near the Belorussian border? Belorussians?

There are four enclaves on the northern border. The two easternmost pockets are actually on the Russian border, in the Sumy province - these are Russians. The single-town enclave in the center is, I believe, Slavutych: the new town build to house the employees of the  Chernobyl power station who continued working there after the station blew up.  The westernmost group of three districts and 1 town is, it seems, part of the Polesia, which is the swamplands on the Ukraine-Belorussian border w/ ethnically transitional or even outright distinct population (neighboring districts there, which are also Polesia, though they did vote Timoshenko, seem to have done so in smaller numbers).

[Χahar]

Was looking at the first round maps and noticed how well Yushchenko did in Kiev (relatively speaking). Why?

[GMantis]

Map by district:

I wonder from they got election results by district. It certainly wasn't from the central election website.

[ag]

I might be wrong, but I believe they matched the precinct data w/ districts.

[CultureKing]

That is one polarized country.