Ukraine 2010

[ag]

...especially the former.

where the difference is between Russian and Ukrainian pronunciation.

Yep. And in a few cases also between Ukranian and Russian spelling (though in this case the spelling differences are minor w/ last names - sometimes they are pretty huge, especially w/ first names). You are also likely to see very different names for regions (e.g., Mykolaiv vs. Nikolaev).

[ag]

W/ 37.43% counted it is

Yanukovych 36.93%
Tymoshenko 24.56%
Tihipko 12.82%
Yatseniuk 6.68%
Yushchenko 4.88%
Symonenko 3.69%
Lytvyn 2.45%
everyone else peanuts

Looking at what has reported, I'd say the final result should have Yanukovych slightly under 36% and Tymoshenko slightly over 25%, w/ the difference just a bit more than the 10% that Tymoshenko should be able to gain in the second round. It's going to be a n interesting election again, but, I'd say, Yanukovych wins in the end w/51-52%
 

[ag]

Is there anywhere in the history of the world where the incumbent performs so poorly while running for re-election?

Probably, not. Though he should clear 5% in the end. And he does seem to manage to win a few of the electoral districts.

[ag]

Wow, Ukrainian is hilarious.  (If you're Russian, of course.)  The word for "independent [of party]" appears to mean something like "beyond parties", sort of in a spatial way, like what you see to your left when you've walked past all the parties.  And the word for "nominated by [a party]" is cognate to a Russian word meaning "stick out [e.g. your tongue]".

Guess, what čerstvý chléb means in Czech. And, for that matter, how do czechs rank the roots for Russian smells: pakhnut', voniat', smerdet'

[ag]

http://www.cvk.gov.ua/vp2010/wp0011.html

The Ukrainian results website is actually pretty good; it displays a lot of information in a lot of different and interesting ways. Everything is in Cyrillic though.

In Ukrainian

[ag]

54.81% reporting. Both leaders a bit down.

Yanukovych 36.63%
Tymoshenko 24.39%
Tihipko 13.11%
Yatseniuk 6.84%
Yushchenko 4.87%
Symonenko 3.63%
Lytvyn 2.38%

I still think the final gap will be about 1% smaller.

[ag]

Being Uniate isn't what distinguishes the Transcarpatians: so are the Galicians, that's, in part, what defiens them so anti-Russian. But Rusyns are not quite Ukrainian, and there are lots of Rusyns in Transcarpatia. And there are also lots of Hungarians, Slovaks, etc., etc.

[ag]

Wow, Ukrainian is hilarious.  (If you're Russian, of course.)  The word for "independent [of party]" appears to mean something like "beyond parties", sort of in a spatial way, like what you see to your left when you've walked past all the parties.  And the word for "nominated by [a party]" is cognate to a Russian word meaning "stick out [e.g. your tongue]".

Guess, what čerstvý chléb means in Czech. And, for that matter, how do czechs rank the roots for Russian smells: pakhnut', voniat', smerdet'

Translayshe or must I try and understand on my own?

Čerstvý chléb means fresh bread in Czech, but callous bread in Russian. But I don't get the other examples - as far as I can see, they mean "to stink" in both languages.

Voniat' means to stink in Russian, but its cognate means to smell in Czech (or, at least, in Slovak). Pakhnut' means to smell in Russian, but its cognate means to stink in the Western tongues. The stinking ranking is reversed

[ag]

93.6% in. The things are converging to the final result - and to the threshold 10%

Yanukovych 35.39%
Tymoshenko 24.95%
Tihipko 13.02%
Yatseniuk 6.97%
Yushchenko 5.50%
Symonenko 3.54%
Lytvyn 2.33%
Tiahnybok 1.45%
Hrytsenko 1.21%

Everyone else under 0.5% each

It's going to be a very close run-off. My forecast: Yanukovich  wins by a bit under 51%

[ag]

98.99% in. Almost there. Again slightly closer:

Yanukovych 35.39%
Tymoshenko 25.01%
Tihipko 13.01%
Yatseniuk 6.98%
Yushchenko 5.48%
Symonenko 3.55%
Lytvyn 2.34%
Tiahnybok 1.43%
Hrytsenko 1.20%

Everyone else under 0.5% each

So, assuming Tymoshenko should be able to gain 10%, we are going to be in for another nailbiter - the current margin is 10.38%

[ag]

99.31% in. One of the last batches from the East has come in.

Yanukovych 35.41%
Tymoshenko 24.98%
Tihipko 13.05%
Yatseniuk 6.95%
Yushchenko 5.46%
Symonenko 3.54%
Lytvyn 2.34%
Tiahnybok 1.43%
Hrytsenko 1.20%

Everyone else under 0.5% each

Most of what's left is in Kirovohrad, Sumy and Cherkasy - should be slightly better for Timoshenko, then for Yanukovych

[ag]

99.69% in.

Yanukovych 35.38%
Tymoshenko 25.01%
Tihipko 13.05%
Yatseniuk 6.95%
Yushchenko 5.45%
Symonenko 3.55%
Lytvyn 2.35%
Tiahnybok 1.43%
Hrytsenko 1.20%

Everyone else under 0.5% each

The final distance will be slightly smaller, as Donets'k, Luhansk, Crimea, Sebastopol and Mykolayiv have reported completely now. So, the final gap should be about 10.35%

[ag]

99.76% in.

Yanukovych 35.36%
Tymoshenko 25.02%
Tihipko 13.05%
Yatseniuk 6.95%
Yushchenko 5.45%
Symonenko 3.55%
Lytvyn 2.35%
Tiahnybok 1.43%
Hrytsenko 1.20%

Everyone else under 0.5% each

The gap is down to 10.34%

[ag]

http://www.cvk.gov.ua/vp2010/wp0011.html

The Ukrainian results website is actually pretty good; it displays a lot of information in a lot of different and interesting ways. Everything is in Cyrillic though.

It's in mojibake, wtf?

It's not in Unicode, unfortunately. Choose Cyrillic (Windows) encoding and you will be able to read it, if you know the alphabet, of course.

[ag]

http://www.cvk.gov.ua/vp2010/wp0011.html

The Ukrainian results website is actually pretty good; it displays a lot of information in a lot of different and interesting ways. Everything is in Cyrillic though.

It's in mojibake, wtf?

It's not in Unicode, unfortunately. Choose Cyrillic (Windows) encoding and you will be able to read it, if you know the alphabet, of course.

I'm just wondering if you're Russian or Ukranian? You seem to be very interested in those two countries.

This has been discussed here many times Let's put it this way: I was born a citizen of the USSR But I am Mexican now.

[ag]

Any reason Yuschenko did so well in Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk?  (I typed "Lvov and Ivano-Frankovsk", then considered editing to "Lwów".  Does that make me a bad person?)  He doesn't appear to be a favorite son or anything.

Well, he did study in Ternopil, I believe. But, mostly, it is just that over the last 5+ years he got positioned as a Ukrainian nationalist (he isn't, really) and a westernizer. Yanukovych is too Russian there, and Tymoshenko too lefty. So, for lack of a better candidate of their own, Halicians have stuck w/ him.

[ag]

Symonenko got, what he normally gets there, I believe. This is the Commie electorate: it's stable.

[ag]

Almost there. 99.99% in

Yanukovych 35.32%
Tymoshenko 25.05%
Tihipko 13.06%
Yatseniuk 6.96%
Yushchenko 5.45%
Symonenko 3.55%
Lytvyn 2.35%
Tiahnybok 1.43%
Hrytsenko 1.20%

Everyone else under 0.5% each

The gap is down to 10.27%

[ag]

Any reason Yuschenko did so well in Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk?  (I typed "Lvov and Ivano-Frankovsk", then considered editing to "Lwów".

How about "Lemberg"?

Yuriev is also an option

[ag]

All 100% reporting. Done

Yanukovych 35.32%
Tymoshenko 25.05%
Tihipko 13.06%
Yatseniuk 6.96%
Yushchenko 5.45%
Symonenko 3.55%
Lytvyn 2.35%
Tiahnybok 1.43%
Hrytsenko 1.20%
Bohoslovs'ka 0.41%
Moroz 0.38%
Kostenko 0.22%
Suprun 0.19%
Protyvsikh 0.16%
Pabat 0.14%
Ratushniak 0.12%
Brods'ki 0.06%
Riabokon' 0.03%
None of the above 2.20%
Invalid 1.64%

[ag]

Don't forget it's Sunday. In the morning the Wessies are in church, while the atheist Ossies have time to vote. Still,  every indication the West is behind, but the gap is always the highest in the morning.

[ag]

W/ 40.2% of precincts reporting, we have, so far

Yanukovich 50.09%
Timoshenko 44.39%
Against all of the above 4.4%
Invalid 1.11%

Given the reporting pattern, I'd forecast, at this point, Yanukovich to win w/ a bit under 49% against Timoshenko at around 46%. I sincerely hope it's not any closer - otherwise, it's going to be ugly.

[ag]

W/ 49.6% of precincts reporting, we have, so far

Yanukovich 49.52%%
Timoshenko 44.85%
Against all of the above 4.49%
Invalid 1.12%

[ag]

W/ 61.71% of precincts reporting, we have, so far

Yanukovich 49.21%%
Timoshenko 45.15%
Against all of the above 4.49%
Invalid 1.13%

[ag]

W/ 67.21% of precincts reporting, we have, so far

Yanukovich 48.98%%
Timoshenko 45.37%
Against all of the above 4.49%
Invalid 1.14%