Michigan poll

[HoopsCubs]

Why doesn't anyone think Bush can win Michigan it's a long shot but not impossible

My read on Michigan is that, in general, they don't like Bush and they don't like Kerry either.  Much the same way they didn't like Gore or Bush in 2000.   But just like they did in 2000, they will do so in 2004, and that is, they'll vote for whom they perceive to be the lesser of 2 evils.   That means, as long as the vote is brought out in Wayne county, specifically Detroit, Kerry will win Michigan 51-47-2.


Hoops
 

[Dave from Michigan]

There are lots of republicans in western wayne county.

[Kghadial]

Of the 2000 'swing' states that everyone was predicting, Michigan went more for Gore than any other 'swing' state. Considering how high Michigan's unemployment rate is, and considering that they made Granholm their governor (is that Michigan, or am i confused?) it's hard to believe that Bush will be able to convince 150,000 Gore supporters to vote for him instead.

 The Nader&Gore total was roughly 300,000 more than the Bush&Buchanan.   Gore's vote margin (not percentage) in Michigan was about the same as Bush's margin in Virginia, and no one really think that Virginia is a legitmate swing state unless Rendell runs as VP. So at this point it seems silly to think of Michigan as a swing state unless Bush picks a Midwestern VP.

Michigan seems like pretty solid Kerry country to me.  I think by October it'll be solid Kerry country and both sides will save their money  and use their dollars in Phoenix and Vegas.

[zachman]

We shouldn't even count Buchannan in Bush's totals, he had no support. The reform party collapse was amazing. Read this article from 1999.

http://www.theatlantic.com/unbound/polipro/pp9910.htm

[12th Doctor]

I acctually have a theory that Buchanan never really left the Republicans.  I think that he may have been a plant from the GOP to break-up the Reform Party.  Think about it, Perot was nothing like Buchanan. Why would they switch?  Just a theory, can't be proved.  I don't care if it is true, it's a solid strategy.  

[Gustaf]

We shouldn't even count Buchannan in Bush's totals, he had no support. The reform party collapse was amazing. Read this article from 1999.

http://www.theatlantic.com/unbound/polipro/pp9910.htm

Good article.