Michigan poll

[Dave from Michigan]

 
   Bush vs. Kerry


  Statewide Kerry 46% Bush 40%
 
 Detroit- Kerry 65% Bush 9%

 Outer wayne county Kerry 41% Bush 37%

 Oakland county Kerry 50% Bush 39%

 Macomb county Kerry 39% Bush 42%

 Northern Michigan Kerry 36% Bush 53%

 western Michigan Kerry 38% Bush 50%

 
  Bush could win Michigan!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  lots of people undecided

[StevenNick]

For the last few months Kerry has been campaigning nonstop.  The President has been almost completely silent while he's been getting beat up by the dems and the press over a whole host of issues.  Plus Kerry has been getting a whole bunch of free, positive press from all his primary victories.  If after all that Kerry is only running six points ahead of Bush in Michigan and he's under 40%, I think that means Michigan is definitely in play.

[Dave from Michigan]

I think Kerry will win though 50-39 in oakland county is very bad for the republicans, but leading in macomb is good. Bush has a shot though. I think he was within 6 points in 200 and lost though.

[© tweed]

Bush won't win Michigan.

[Gustaf]

40% is not good for an incumbent, like Bush is. That difference is also the same as Gore's margin in 2000.

[John]

It is up to the People in Michigan to choose who they want in Office
Here is my Poll
kerry: 53%
Bush: 46%

[agcatter]

Uh, yeah John, it is up to the people of Michigan to decide who they want for President.  Way to go out on a limb with that statement.

[Gustaf]

Uh, yeah John, it is up to the people of Michigan to decide who they want for President.  Way to go out on a limb with that statement.

Don't be hard on him, he conducted a poll all on his own, that must have been hard work and deserves some credit.

[Dave from Michigan]

It's going to be closer than 53-46
more like 49- 47

[Gustaf]

It's going to be closer than 53-46
more like 49- 47

I think it will be closer to 53-46 than to 49-47. Also, John conducted a poll, you're just guessing...

[Dave from Michigan]

If he has ANY chance he has to do a lot better in Oakland county and macomb and hope the people of Detroit don't show up to vote.

[Gustaf]

If he has ANY chance he has to do a lot better in Oakland county and macomb and hope the people of Detroit don't show up to vote.

Don't bet on that. Voter turnout will most likely be pretty high this time around.

[Dave from Michigan]

I don't think it will happen either but I'm hoping so.

[© tweed]

Michigan:

Kerry 52%
Bush 46%
Nader 1.5% (if Nader on Ballot)

If no Nader, Kerry 53-46%

[zachman]

My pick:
Kerry 52%
Bush 45%

[Dave from Michigan]

Why doesn't anyone think Bush can win Michigan it's a long shot but not impossible

[zachman]

He hasn't gained outside of the Western South and Prarie and Mountain states.

[Gustaf]

Why doesn't anyone think Bush can win Michigan it's a long shot but not impossible

I think Bush CAN win Michigan, but I don't think he WILL. It's a long shot, but not impossible. It's about as likely as Kerry winning Arkansas or Virginia, I'd say.

[classical liberal]

Arkansas maybe, but I think the chances of Kerry winning Virginia are closer to the chances of Bush winning Minnesota.

[Gustaf]

Arkansas maybe, but I think the chances of Kerry winning Virginia are closer to the chances of Bush winning Minnesota.

Do you mean that? MN is a true tossup, some would even say it leans Bush, Virginia I though of as more of a longshot. I was going mostly on 2000 victory margins and the current trends.

[zachman]

Nader got 5% there, and that should decrease. That gives Kerry an advantage.

[Gustaf]

Nader got 5% there, and that should decrease. That gives Kerry an advantage.

Yeah, Nader's running mate was from MN.

[zachman]

He'll probably pick LaDuke again. He picked her in 1996 as well. But the VP pick doesn't matter for Nader, as long as they are low profile.

[12th Doctor]

It's not just Nader.  Bush scoured FAR better in Minnisota in 2000 than any Republican since the 50's not including Nixon in 72 and Reagan in 84.  Minnesota is treading more Republican in general.  The presence of a Republican governor, Republican Senator and Republican state Senate should also help Bush.  I predict a 50%-48%-2% margin for Bush this year.

One thing that I haven't thought that was mentioned earlier, but in a different way is that Kerry HAS been campaigning non-stop.  He must be getting tired.  If he does than he is likly to make a few gaffes here and there.  This could hurt his standing with the voters.

Anyway, Bush is just starting to campaign so I would say (as I have before) that we can expect his numbers to take a jump here soon.

[zachman]

Bush's campaigning won't make a real difference. His ads sadly will though.