SUSA- Ohio Kerry 49% Bush 47%, also MO, NJ, VA, NV

[Reds4]

The change is actually .25 from the last survey, went from 1.45 lead to a 1.70 lead.
http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/OH041019pressen.pdf

Also Missouri Bush 51% Kerry 45%
http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/MO041019presgovsen.pdf

NJ  Kerry 51% Bush 43%
http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/NJ041019president.pdf

VA Bush 50% Kerry 46%
http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/VA041019president.pdf

NV Bush 52% Kerry 45%
http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/NV041019president.pdf

[Reds4]

Internals of the Ohio poll don't look just right. Bush leads by one amoung 18-34, but trails by 6 among 35-49?

Anyone have exit poll data from 2000 for how many GOP'ers compared to Dems voted in both  OH, and VA?

[J. J.]

Ohio, Ohio, Ohio.

[AuH2O]

I just don't like SUSA. Maybe it's because I don't understand their methodology.

Here's an example- Virginia:

"Overall"

Bush: 50
Kerry: 46

"Certain"

Bush: 49
Kerry: 47

"Probable"

Bush: 58!!
Kerry: 33!!

The probably sample is 49 people, which means I cannot fathom what a "probable" voter is. The "certain" voter % is absolutely false. Just false, I'm sorry, but there is no way 615/704 people surveyed are certain to vote. No.

In other words, I just don't trust SUSA. They blow a lot of races and their internals range from odd to stupid.

[mypalfish]

More bad news out of Ohio...what a surprise!  That trip to NJ is looking more and more ridiculous by the minute.  It looks like Ohio will end up deciding the election.  Bush needs to camp out there and do anything and everything in his power to hold on to it.

[AuH2O]

More bad news out of Ohio...what a surprise!  That trip to NJ is looking more and more ridiculous by the minute.  It looks like Ohio will end up deciding the election.  Bush needs to camp out there and do anything and everything in his power to hold on to it.

I'll be sure to get in touch with Karl Rove, let him know internet trolls disagree with his strategy.

[mypalfish]

More bad news out of Ohio...what a surprise!  That trip to NJ is looking more and more ridiculous by the minute.  It looks like Ohio will end up deciding the election.  Bush needs to camp out there and do anything and everything in his power to hold on to it.

I'll be sure to get in touch with Karl Rove, let him know internet trolls disagree with his strategy.

Rove still thinks the election is locked up judging by his cavalier attitude resulting in few Ohio visits and misguided trips to NJ.  The President needs an Ohio/Florida shuttle, with no stops in between.

[agcatter]

I've been hard on Rove as well, but he's the one who has access to the extensive internal campaign polls.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Can you post the topline numbers?  Those pdfs take a long time to load...

[Reds4]

Edited to include topline numbers. By the way, I found the NV sample to be about 3% too friendly to the gop when going through the internals.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

I just don't like SUSA. Maybe it's because I don't understand their methodology.

Here's an example- Virginia:

"Overall"

Bush: 50
Kerry: 46

"Certain"

Bush: 49
Kerry: 47

"Probable"

Bush: 58!!
Kerry: 33!!

The probably sample is 49 people, which means I cannot fathom what a "probable" voter is. The "certain" voter % is absolutely false. Just false, I'm sorry, but there is no way 615/704 people surveyed are certain to vote. No.

In other words, I just don't trust SUSA. They blow a lot of races and their internals range from odd to stupid.

That just means among certain and probable voters, respectively.

[AuH2O]

I understand what it MEANS, I'm just saying it can't be true.

That would be an unbelieveable turnout forecast... just absolutely impossible.

[There Are Some Remedies Worse Than The Disease]

I'd like to take this as good news, but I'm rather skeptical of anything that shows Virginia closer than Nevada.

[classical liberal]

I'll do what I did for the last batch of SUSAs:

The change is actually .25 from the last survey, went from 1.45 lead to a 1.70 lead.
http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/OH041019pressen.pdf

Also Missouri Bush 51% Kerry 45%
http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/MO041019presgovsen.pdf

NJ Kerry 51% Bush 43%
http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/NJ041019president.pdf

VA Bush 50% Kerry 46%
http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/VA041019president.pdf

NV Bush 52% Kerry 45%
http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/NV041019president.pdf

OH- Turnout in 2000 was (D,R,I)=(38,37,26) while this sample was (D,R,I)=(38,35,26)- A bit Dem friendly, but pretty good.

MO- Turnout in 2000 was (D,R,I)=(39,38,23) while this sample was (D,R,I)=(34,36,29)- GOP friendly, but within MoE (maybe Bush +4 not +6).

NJ- Turnout in 2000 was (D,R,I)=(40,30,30) while this sample was (D,R,I)=(38,30,32)- Just about right, maybe a bit Dem shy.

VA- Turnout in 2000 was (D,R,I)=(35,37,28) while this sample was (D,R,I)=(32,36,32)- GOP heavy, but the sample seems to have blown up (not a representative sample within the subgroups).

NV- Turnout in 2000 was (D,R,I)=(37,38,25) while this sample was (D,R,I)=(34,40,25)- Sample blew up demographically (Bush +3-4, not +7).

[Platypus]

Internals of the Ohio poll don't look just right. Bush leads by one amoung 18-34, but trails by 6 among 35-49?

It's the economy, stupid!

[ArthurBranch]

Alright,t his criticsm of Bush going to NJ is the stupidest stuff i've heard in a while.  IT WAS ONE SPEECH, a major speech that played across PA, and gave life to volunteers in a state we're only down 4-7 in.  it wasn't like he spent the day there--he made his speech, left, and went to FL.  I think people are really overplaying this.

[CARLHAYDEN]

First, I want to credit SUSA with being one of the few polling firms which maskes their demographics easily available.

Second, I want to note that they continue to have wacky results in two of their subgroups in poll after poll.

I know of absolutely no other pollster which maintains that Kerry is

a.) consistently winning the military/veteran vote, and

b.) that Kerry consistently not only does better among Democrats than Bush does among Republicans, but that Kerry consistently does better among Republicans than Bush does among Democrats.

SUSA has been pretty consistently wacky for the last couple of weeks.