Areas trending REP

[5280]

I've noticed how alot of people are saying some parts of the Mountain West are becoming more Democratic and Texas especially is becoming more of a swing state next couple of cycles.

Which areas of the US would you consider trending REP or becoming more conservative?

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

minnesota, wisconsin, oregon? idk.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The outer South (MO, AR, TN, KY, WV).

[fezzyfestoon]

I would say the Rust Belt and Great Lakes areas are probably the least bad area for Republicans right now.

[Хahar 🤔]

minnesota, wisconsin, oregon? idk.

lol

It's not 2001 anymore.

[HappyWarrior]

Mainly the Outer South, as well as LA, this includes KY, TN, AR, and MO.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Mainly the Outer South, as well as LA, this includes KY, TN, AR, and MO.

The only reason they trended Republican in 2008 was because of Obama's color. You can't possibly tell me they were more attracted to McCain than Bush.

[DemocratsVictory2008]

AR, WV, KY, LA, MS, AL,OK, MO are definitely. Western PA, and Northern FL are as well but the states overall have a neutral trend

[HappyWarrior]

Mainly the Outer South, as well as LA, this includes KY, TN, AR, and MO.

The only reason they trended Republican in 2008 was because of Obama's color. You can't possibly tell me they were more attracted to McCain than Bush.

But this tredns began back in 2000, not 2008.

[Vepres]

Minnesota, "outer South"

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota, "outer South"

I thought this ridiculous idea died around 2004.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Mainly the Outer South, as well as LA, this includes KY, TN, AR, and MO.

The only reason they trended Republican in 2008 was because of Obama's color. You can't possibly tell me they were more attracted to McCain than Bush.

But this tredns began back in 2000, not 2008.

Dear god, am I the only one required to use my brain here?  Beyond whatever asinine political insight you think you have, you must understand that there is no magic 'trend' which makes people vote more or less Republican every year. People vote on the individual, their personality, degree of religious faith ect.

The outer south of course was more favorable to Bush then it was to Dole, Bush fit into the region perfectly while Gore did not. 2004 even more so. McCain does not have that type of appeal, so we would expect the 'trend' to regress in 2008. Clinton looked heavily competitive in the region, yet Obama won nothing. Whether it was him being an African American, or him allegedly being a Muslim, the fact remains that this 'trend' was based on results from candidates, not political party alliegence.

Never attempt to correct me again.

[You kip if you want to...]

I've noticed how alot of people are saying some parts of the Mountain West are becoming more Democratic and Texas especially is becoming more of a swing state next couple of cycles.

Which areas of the US would you consider trending REP or becoming more conservative?

The "Clinton-but-not-Obama" states in the south (AR, LA, TN, WV, KY).

[DariusNJ]

Minnesota isnt trending Republican you fools. It's just that they have a Republican Governor and a crazy representative (Bachmann). They have 2 liberal Democratic senators.

If anything, it's a swing state with a 3-5% lean to the Dem.

[Sbane]

Minnesota, "outer South"

I thought this ridiculous idea died around 2004.

It did underperform for Obama in 2008 don't you think? Do you think it was because of the convention? I'm not sure if I buy that. Or do the republicans just have a very high floor in the state?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Minnesota, "outer South"

I thought this ridiculous idea died around 2004.

It did underperform for Obama in 2008 don't you think? Do you think it was because of the convention? I'm not sure if I buy that. Or do the republicans just have a very high floor in the state?

IF I remember correctly, McCain was performing about the same in MN, WI, and MI around Sept or so. Then he pulled all the money from the last two but kept pooring money into MN. So while the other two got more bad polling wise, MN got slightly better.

[War on Want]

Minnesota, "outer South"

I thought this ridiculous idea died around 2004.

It did underperform for Obama in 2008 don't you think? Do you think it was because of the convention? I'm not sure if I buy that. Or do the republicans just have a very high floor in the state?

IF I remember correctly, McCain was performing about the same in MN, WI, and MI around Sept or so. Then he pulled all the money from the last two but kept pooring money into MN. So while the other two got more bad polling wise, MN got slightly better.

Yep, most of the areas that trended towards Obama were in North Dakota's media market, where Obama was spending money:

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota, "outer South"

I thought this ridiculous idea died around 2004.

It did underperform for Obama in 2008 don't you think? Do you think it was because of the convention? I'm not sure if I buy that. Or do the republicans just have a very high floor in the state?

The convention was a non-issue. McCain's spending wasn't. EMD posted the map I was about to bring up. Minnesota is the only state where McCain outspent Obama. In addition to the ND media market bit, please note the Sioux Falls, SD media market in the southwest, and the two most southeastern counties in the La Crosse, WI media market.

Also the answer to the second question is yes.

[President Mitt]

I think the Rust Belt will trend Republican, it will probably never become a Republican region, but the Republicans will probably be a lot more competitive.

[Linus Van Pelt]

I'm not sure where this idea that the industrial midwest is trending GOP comes from. The Appalachian foothills in SW PA & SE OH, maybe, but the rest of the region?

If anything, I suspect that the Tea Party backlash will be less strong in the auto belt than in the rest of the country (except obviously culturally liberal or minority areas). But this will be hard to tell for a while, without a competitive statewide race in MI or IN.

[DS0816]

It takes more than one presidential election to talk about a trend. I recommend differentiating between a shift/swing and a trend. Virginia has trended Democratic. West Virginia has trended Republican. Minnesota and Wisconsin, for 2000 and 2004, were Republican shifts. (And they've since shifted back to the Democrats.)

[Smash255]

Minnesota, "outer South"

I thought this ridiculous idea died around 2004.

It did underperform for Obama in 2008 don't you think? Do you think it was because of the convention? I'm not sure if I buy that. Or do the republicans just have a very high floor in the state?

     It may have underperformed by a couple points, but not that much.  When you look at how a state is trending, you obviously tend to look at how it has trended over several election cycles, not just one.  If a state (or whatever you are talking about) is trending one way against the national average several elections in a row you can make an argument its trending in one direction.  If it saw a sharp movement in one direction compared to the national average and wasn't impacted by the state the candidate is from then perhaps you could make that argument (though you would need to look at some other factors).

However, in the case of Minnesota, none of that is true.   The state trended Republican in the late 80's and early 90's, but after that it has been pretty steady.  Some could argue it trended Rep, during the late 90's, which you could argue, but on either side of that it moved slightly Democratic.  From 92 to 08 the state hasn't trended to either side when compared to the national average for more than one election.  During that period compared to the national average it has moved slightly to the GOP.  However, it moved a total of 3 points to the GOP compared to the national average during that 16 year span.    Without looking it up, I would guess most states have moved more than that in one direction or the other over the past 16 years.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If search was up I'd find my state legislative maps which speak for themselves. The Republicans have gained essentially nothing in Minnesota since 2002. Nothing.

[minionofmidas]

If search was up I'd find my state legislative maps which speak for themselves. The Republicans have gained essentially nothing in Minnesota since 2002. Nothing.

That proves nothing as it's true in most states.

[TeePee4Prez]

I'm not sure where this idea that the industrial midwest is trending GOP comes from. The Appalachian foothills in SW PA & SE OH, maybe, but the rest of the region?

If anything, I suspect that the Tea Party backlash will be less strong in the auto belt than in the rest of the country (except obviously culturally liberal or minority areas). But this will be hard to tell for a while, without a competitive statewide race in MI or IN.

And I also love the PA trending right phenomenon.  I had arguments with supersoulty back in 2004 about this.  He was talking about the older Dems dying off out in western PA.  He was right, but if anything the older folks dying off in Jack Murthastan actually helps the Democrats in Presidential elections because they were socially conservative racists who were trending Republican anyways.   

The only areas I could see are:

Appalachia- SW Pennsylvania/SE Ohio/West Virginia/E Kentucky/Western Virginia
Upper/Outer South- TN, AR, MO, LA, OK

An area I'm familiar with.  Not as sharp as the above 2, but I noticed some kinks here.  And dare I say.. race maybe an issue, but still:
 
Blue collar white Northeast Corridor- Northeast/South Philly, Staten Island, Some parts of NJ, Eastern MA (interesting trends here.  If Bill Delahunt/Steve Lynch were to retire..), Parts of Rhode Island.