Will North Carolina be more Democratic than Ohio, Florida in 2012?

[DemocratsVictory2008]

It may seem a bit absurd now but NC has maybe the biggest generational divide in the country. Obama won 74% of the 18-29 vote in 2008 and even 56% of whites in this group. McCain won all other age groups easily but one can only wonder if the state has an inevitable trend toward the dems, unlike ohio and florida which trended slightly GOP from 2000-08

[RIP Robert H Bork]

No.

[California8429]

no. Why do you have two posts of the same thing?

[Psychic Octopus]

No.

[ConservativeIllini]

I think it's definitely possible.  Already, the polls are showing NC closer than Ohio and FL.  Obviously, one can't derive much from election polls just under 3 years out, but I've been thinking for a few months that your scenario is a possibility. 

I'll put it at 70% being more democratic than Florida, and 20% chance of being more democratic than Ohio. 

[California8429]

Obviously, one can't derive much from election polls just under 3 years out

[ConservativeIllini]

Obviously, one can't derive much from election polls just under 3 years out

I guess I discounted my entire analysis with that, didn't I?

[Boris]

Obviously, one can't derive much from election polls just under 3 years out

I guess I discounted my entire analysis with that, didn't I?

do you go to UIUC?

[ConservativeIllini]

Obviously, one can't derive much from election polls just under 3 years out

I guess I discounted my entire analysis with that, didn't I?

do you go to UIUC?

Just graduated this past fall, why do you ask?

[Devilman88]

Maybe, we will have to see.

[Badger]

I think it's definitely possible.  Already, the polls are showing NC closer than Ohio and FL.  Obviously, one can't derive much from election polls just under 3 years out, but I've been thinking for a few months that your scenario is a possibility. 

I'll put it at 7040% being more democratic than Florida, and 20% chance of being more democratic than Ohio. 

Over optomistic for Florida, IMHO, but hardly impossible.

Standard warnings re: MoE in small subsamples apply of course. Recall Kerry winning an ungodly share of the under 30 vote in Mississippi according to CNN?