Notes about the changes:House
1. LA-03*: Republicans got a top-notch candidate to run here. Louisiana can be odd in its politics, but with a decent candidate, hard to see how Republicans lose here this year.
2. CO-04: Basically, everything's starting to look harder for Dems in Colorado this year and the GOP should have never lost this seat in the first place. Other than that, I'm not going to give a reason for the move, just that it should be done.
3. IN-08*: I moved every seat in Indiana up a notch after this week's primary. Primary results, to me, are basically worthless. However, I saw the same patterns that I saw in 2006 pop up again this week and Indiana is, and shall always be, a weird state that acts funny.
4. MD-01: Harris outraised Kratovil in 1Q2010. GOP should have never lost this seat in the first place either and got another break when Ehrlich announced.
5. NY-29*: GOP united behind Reed. The Dem candidate may have, may not. Regardless, this is another seat the GOP should never have lost in the first place.
6. OH-15: Stivers' performance in the primary last Tuesday was the most impressive of the evening. Everything else I've seen out of that campaign has been above par too. Just a feeling.
7. AR-01*: Rick Crawford fundraised just as well as his Dem opponents and won't have to face that primary clusterf-ck. Besides, it's Arkansas right now...
8. FL-24: Both Rothenberg and Cook moved this race to toss-up because the Republicans have someone who can self-fund a bit now in the race. I concur.
9. IL-14: Somewhat similar to FL-24 in that Rothenberg and Cook moved it to toss-up. Hultgren also had his best fundraising quarter in 1Q2010 but is still behind in fundraising. I'm tempted to put it in Lean D, but for now will give into conventional thinking...
10. IN-09: See IN-08. Young got money from Blankenship, which I guess could make a difference. He is, however, new blood, has raised the most money and this CD's demographics continue to get worse for Hill imo.
11. PA-12* (special): I realized that I overreacted putting it in Lean R. This area of the world is nearly impossible to poll, anyways, so why am I putting faith in polls?
FWIW, I think HI-01 is almost close to being a lost cause (unless the polling is wrong, always possible in Hawaii), whereas this is the one where Dems will pin their hopes.
12. VA-05: The GOP candidates aren't raising any money here and look weak, whereas Perriello is raising a lot of cash. The environment may well doom him anyway, but the candidate quality could let him sneak by.
13. WI-07*: Seat opened up. Obvious call.
14. WV-01: There's about a 50-50 chance Mollohan won't get through the primary. The GOP is having a similar drag-out brawl, but both candidates have money, so here we go. Last Tuesday's results, btw, suggest to me problems with Dems in Appalachia. I want to see PA-12 before saying for sure, however, even though special elections are often less predictive than primaries.
15. GA-08: Austin Scott moved from the Governor's primary to this race last week and can presumably move at least some of funds here too. Marshall is never going to be "safe" in this seat imo, but much less so when he has a legit opponent.
16. NM-01: Barela had a strong fundraising quarter in 1Q2010 (after a weak one before) and this seat has always been less Democratic than it probably should be (2008 excepted).
17. NY-01: As Lunar mentioned, the giant primary fight and the possibility of split tickets should push this one down a notch. Though if things mend up in the end for the NY GOP, Bishop will probably be in a decent amount of anger because there's a lot of money flowing here.
18. OH-18: The RNCs choice pick got through the primary mess, Space has money but doesn't seem as strong as a few months ago. Moreover, as mentioned above with WV-01, I didn't see much good news for Dems in Appalachia last Tuesday.
19. PA-08: Fitz pulled nearly $500K in 1Q2010. So did Murphy, but that's extremely impressive in my book.
20. VA-09: Morgan Griffith pulled $100K in his first two weeks. Boucher's got a ton of money, of course, but Appalachia and the candidate's haul (not to mention that Griffith is a strong candidate) pulls the ranking up from where it was.
21. VA-11: The GOPers are raising a respectable amount of money here. But more important than that (and this goes with all Virginia races this year), there's no Senate/Governor's race this year to boost turnout.
22. AZ-01: Kirkpatrick has a major fundraising advantage, of course. But it just feels to me like it should be in Likely D not Watch List. Freshman incumbent also matters.
23. FL-02: Boyd has a ton of money. However, the main GOPer that the NRCC seems to be uniting around, Steve Southerland, had a pretty strong quarter in 1Q2010. Thus, because of the generics of this CD, I feel it should be bumped up a notch.
24. IL-11: Kinzinger pulled in as much funds as Halvorson last quarter, and seems to have a decent following. Freshman incumbent too.
25. IN-02: See IN-08 and IN-09. Also, Walorski's primary performance was the second most impressive of last Tuesday's, imo.
26. NJ-03: Runyan's fundraising sucked 1Q2010 and Adler has gobs of money, which takes this one down a notch.
27. NY-13: The GOPers here are actually fundraising pretty well enough for me to move it up a bit. Freshman incumbent.
28. NY-20: Republicans finally coalesced around a candidate, who doesn't look that bad. Not terrible fundraising either for being in the race a few weeks. Murphy is fundraising well imo. Freshman incumbent. Still deserves the move up.
29. OH-13: I saw that Sutton's CD is only D+5, which surprised me (thought it was more). Ganley seems willing to spend a fortune and for that, I'm willing to move him up (also realizing it was only D+5). His primary showing was also pretty strong, and that's another reason.
30. OR-05: Schrader got outraised by Bruun last quarter, though he still has a 7-1 CoH advantage. That's kind-of a warning sign to me, especially for a freshman incumbent, so I've moving it up a notch.
31. PA-10: Merino, for all his touting, had a bad fundraising quarter. I doubt this CD gets moved lower than this, unless the wave threat fades, because this seat is particularly vulnerable to waves IMO.
32. PA-17: Argall's fundraising was also weak, but I think I put this one too low to start off with.
33. CT-04: In contrast with PA-17, I think I put this one too high, and am now moving it back to a more appropriate position. Still deserves to be watched, with freshman incumbent and all.
34. GA-02: Really deserves to be on the Watch List, IMO. No one else is paying attention to it.
35. RI-01: The Republican has raised some money and the Dem is as crooked as a three-dollar bill. It's still Rhode Island, but it should be watched.
36. DE-AL: Republicans have a couple of self-funders in the race now. Henceforth...
37. FL-25: Just feel that this should be ranked higher because of candidates. We'll see if that holds.
38. MN-06: Unlikely this year.
39. OH-02: Ditto.