Sam Spade's 2010 Predictions

[Sam Spade]

I still don't trust Hawaii polling, but with the DCCC pulling out and all - should be Lean R.

[Lunar]

I still don't trust Hawaii polling, but with the DCCC pulling out and all - should be Lean R.

Basically my feeling.  I would probably be the least surprised person in the room if something crazy happened and 'busa ended up winning.  But if they're giving up completely, I see no reason to hold out hope.

[Sam Spade]

updated putting TX-17 in toss-up, FL-02 in Lean D, PA-12 in Likely D and NE-02 in Lean R.

Nothing else for this second.

[Sam Spade]

A few changes made to Governor/Senate/House.  I'll probably add one more seat to the House Watch List to keep the number even, but I need to look at my off the chart list again.

[Sam Spade]

Made some changes and here are some real observations on the Senate races, instead of the games that I usually play:

AR-Sen:  I'd be very surprised if Halter loses.  Blanche Lincoln is the dead incumbent of this cycle (i.e. the Santorum) and rather than nominate a dead person, Dems would like to nominate someone with a chance.  That being said, Halter can also perform worse than Lincoln (incumbents have this amusing way of pulling closer towards the end of a campaign), in addition to better than her, and quite frankly I think his chances are not that good in general regardless.

CA-Sen:  Carly is going to be the nominee.  I hate her b/c she's incompetent.  Boxer's approvals are weak, though she runs better in the horse race numbers, which seems to be traditional for California.  Key is to see where the race is about 4-6 weeks after the primary.

CT-Sen:  Guess the Blumenthal stuff didn't mean a thing to CT voters.  The state is always a little strange in its voting patterns, so I'll chalk it up to that. 

FL-Sen:  Crist is getting a bit more institutional Dem support, which means his chances increase.  Of course, he's also hiring Bloomberg people, which probably cancels that out.  His position changes are getting pretty amusing to the unbiased observer.

IA-Sen:  I really don't know about my placement of this one.  I do remember how women tend to perform in Iowa.

IN-Sen:  It's the race of the unknowns, which is highly amusing.  Honestly though, if Ras and SUSA are right and Indiana swings back to the pre-2006 Indiana, it's gonna be tough for Ellsworth, even though Coats really sucks as a candidate.

KY-Sen:  The polling says Lean R, but I'd be surprised if Paul wins it by more than 10.  Quite frankly, I'd be not surprised with less than 5 or even really close, but in recent years KY Senate races have been fool's gold for Dems, regardless of who the Republicans put up.

MO-Sen:  What have I been saying about MO for the last year.  Of course, the environment hints that it should go a particular way, but you have to wait until the time actually occurs.

NV-Sen:  The hemming and hawing over this race still ignores the fact that Harry Reid looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and talks like a duck, which probably means he is one.  Regardless of which Republican is nominated, and I'd be surprised if it's not Angle (Lowden is a real incompetent bad candidate), ducks tend to get shot down most of the time, though they often get close to the nest before they do.

NY-Sen:  NY GOP is really incompetent aren't they.  I'm about *this* close to putting it in safe.  Which is rather sad.

OH-Sen:  I'm still trying to figure out why Dems are excited considering their candidate is tied and the GOP candidate is barely known with a ton of money to spend and a good geographic base for the state (historically).

PA-Sen:  Quite frankly, I thought Sestak looked bad on the whole recent you-know-what, and appeared NRFPT.  Of course, Specter was another duck-in-waiting, so the Dems decided they would take their chances with the non-duck (smart).  I still think that, in this environment, this one will be close until the end.

WI-Sen:  Although I don't believe Rasmussen's recent take, folks should be aware that Feingold (I like the guy actually) has never been the model of a strong incumbent, and I'm quite impressed with Johnson's campaign so far.  Another poll showing Feingold under 50% and Johnson within ten would push this one to Lean D in my mind.

[Lunar]

FL-Sen:  Crist is getting a bit more institutional Dem support, which means his chances increase.  Of course, he's also hiring Bloomberg people, which probably cancels that out.  His position changes are getting pretty amusing to the unbiased observer.

lol, we've been noticing the same thing.  But SKD Knickerbocker includes some NY powerhouses like Jennifer Cunningham  (think Cuomo) and is partnered with a Washington powerhouse named Anita Dunn

Shouldn't be surprising that the most talented people left who would be willing to work with Crist are of the Bloomberg/Lieberman crowd.  

Crist's leftward lurch has surprised me.  I'm not sure who the hell is running Meek's campaign, but they are idiots unless they start spending money RIGHT NOW to improve his name recognition, or the Democratic establishment, obsessed with over-interpreting said poll numbers this early in the cycle, will abandon him.  Meek also needs Bill Clinton to do more than just raise money for him, and Bill Clinton is waisting his time campaigning in Arkansas anyway. 

[Sam Spade]

Crist's leftward lurch has surprised me.

Why?  I thought it rather obvious that was going to happen.

[Lunar]

Crist's leftward lurch has surprised me.

Why?  I thought it rather obvious that was going to happen.

I guess I expected his support to collapse, rather than reaching for oxygen among Democrats who have never heard of Meek.  Of course, I guess that would have been obvious had I thought about it more.  It's depressing how many Democrats here are willing to get behind Crist, and we're made up of hyper-informed voters.  I'd vote for Rubio before Crist.

Either way -- why flip flop on DADT?  I don't see the reason.

[Beet]

Lunar, Kendrick Meek is a loser. He would be a loser if Charlie Crist had never run for Senate, or if Charlie Crist had never stepped foot in/been born in Florida. Please do not blame Kendrick Meek's loserdom on Charlie Crist. The only thing Kendrick Meek may be successful at is handing the Florida Senate race to the tea baggers.

[Sam Spade]

Crist's leftward lurch has surprised me.

Why?  I thought it rather obvious that was going to happen.

I guess I expected his support to collapse, rather than reaching for oxygen among Democrats who have never heard of Meek.

Either way -- why flip flop on DADT?  I don't see the reason.

The only way Crist can win is by becoming the defacto Dem candidate.  Of course, the danger is that that game will cause Rubio's "base" support to increase and I really don't know how many Dems in FL will vote Dem just because...  I suspect it's more than the number of GOP who vote GOP because based on underanalysis on my part probably.

Another danger for Dems with the Crist games is that the Dem turnout may crater, "sinking" the ship and other up-ballot candidates as well as creating big issues for the various vulnerable Congressfolk.

[Lunar]

Another danger for Dems with the Crist games is that the Dem turnout may crater, "sinking" the ship and other up-ballot candidates as well as creating big issues for the various vulnerable Congressfolk.

Would have been better if you said "Sink"-ing.

[Lunar]

Lunar, Kendrick Meek is a loser. He would be a loser if Charlie Crist had never run for Senate, or if Charlie Crist had never stepped foot in/been born in Florida. Please do not blame Kendrick Meek's loserdom on Charlie Crist. The only thing Kendrick Meek may be successful at is handing the Florida Senate race to the tea baggers.

Get behind Mike Tyson then, not Charlie Crist.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Lunar, Kendrick Meek is a loser. He would be a loser if Charlie Crist had never run for Senate, or if Charlie Crist had never stepped foot in/been born in Florida. Please do not blame Kendrick Meek's loserdom on Charlie Crist. The only thing Kendrick Meek may be successful at is handing the Florida Senate race to the tea baggers.

We actually agree here.

Fun fact: Kendrick Meek has never faced a general election opponent. Ever. Unless you count a declared write-in candidate in 2006 who got less than 1%. And he was only challenged in the primary by a complete joke in 2006. He basically inherited the seat from his mother and hasn't had to lift a finger to hold it since. The guy is not a campaigning genius.

[Badger]

OH-Sen:  I'm still trying to figure out why Dems are excited considering their candidate is tied and the GOP candidate is barely known with a ton of money to spend and a good geographic base for the state (historically).

Because in this year, plus with at least 2 OH Dem House members and even Strickland seriously challenged for reelection, Fisher's position is relatively optimistic news. Key word: relatively.

[Sam Spade]

a few changes to the Governor's race pile b/c enough recent polling has presented itself.

House changes probably upcoming fairly soon.

[Sam Spade]

Just bumping this up so I don't lose it when I want to update.  Couple of points...

House should really be bumped up to a 30-35 seat call now. 

In the Senate, I'm really only sensing cosmetic changes right now.  Nothing big.

Governor's races are still wide-open in some sense, but in general I'm seeing a potential Dem massacre really setting up here, perhaps moreso than in other places.  Go figure.

[Torie]

Just bumping this up so I don't lose it when I want to update.  Couple of points...

House should really be bumped up to a 30-35 seat call now. 

In the Senate, I'm really only sensing cosmetic changes right now.  Nothing big.

Governor's races are still wide-open in some sense, but in general I'm seeing a potential Dem massacre really setting up here, perhaps moreso than in other places.  Go figure.

That is because states are in fiscal extremis, and it is time for more hard ass daddy rule, don't you think, is what is in play here, on the gubernatorial level?

[Sam Spade]

Just bumping this up so I don't lose it when I want to update.  Couple of points...

House should really be bumped up to a 30-35 seat call now. 

In the Senate, I'm really only sensing cosmetic changes right now.  Nothing big.

Governor's races are still wide-open in some sense, but in general I'm seeing a potential Dem massacre really setting up here, perhaps moreso than in other places.  Go figure.

That is because states are in fiscal extremis, and it is time for more hard ass daddy rule, don't you think, is what is in play here, on the gubernatorial level?

It's certainly a good reason. 

I wasn't really going into the reasons why, just what the polls are saying.

[Lunar]

Strickland is looking safer since his impressive fundraising totals, his NRA endorsement, and a series of missteps by Kasich -- making fun of Strickland's rural roots and publicly saying that you're not engaged in keeping Lebron James in Ohio?  He's in damage controlmode

[Sam Spade]

Strickland is looking safer since his impressive fundraising totals, his NRA endorsement, and a series of missteps by Kasich -- making fun of Strickland's rural roots and publicly saying that you're not engaged in keeping Lebron James in Ohio?  He's in damage controlmode

Oh, I definitely agree Strickland's position looks better than in December or January and Kasich has done a number of stupid things lately, but looking safer is perhaps a bit too much - looking stronger maybe...  (I don't usually say safer until I see the 10-point lead or something).

Let me say my above comment this way - right now there's really only two Dem governorships that I would call safe or anywhere close to safe (Ark and NY).  Hawaii and NH are the closest to being there otherwise, but honestly NH is much closer to lean D than likely D at this point.  And with the exception of MA, I really can't put together that good of an argument for the other 4 in Lean D not being in toss-up (and Oregon should clearly be in toss-up, based on the polling, which will be changed soon).

What does all this mean?  That there is the real danger Dems could be 15 or under in terms of governorship post-2010.  Not likely yet, at all, but it is a very real danger.

[Mr.Phips]

Strickland is looking safer since his impressive fundraising totals, his NRA endorsement, and a series of missteps by Kasich -- making fun of Strickland's rural roots and publicly saying that you're not engaged in keeping Lebron James in Ohio?  He's in damage controlmode

Oh, I definitely agree Strickland's position looks better than in December or January and Kasich has done a number of stupid things lately, but looking safer is perhaps a bit too much - looking stronger maybe...  (I don't usually say safer until I see the 10-point lead or something).

Let me say my above comment this way - right now there's really only two Dem governorships that I would call safe or anywhere close to safe (Ark and NY).  Hawaii and NH are the closest to being there otherwise, but honestly NH is much closer to lean D than likely D at this point.  And with the exception of MA, I really can't put together that good of an argument for the other 4 in Lean D not being in toss-up (and Oregon should clearly be in toss-up, based on the polling, which will be changed soon).

What does all this mean?  That there is the real danger Dems could be 15 or under in terms of governorship post-2010.  Not likely yet, at all, but it is a very real danger.

Being under 15 means post Watergate like Republican numbers for Democrats.  And Obama didnt even resign like Nixon.

[Sam Spade]

I updated Senate and Governor today.

Expect House once we get the full slate of fundraising numbers.

Notes are below the line.
AR-Sen:  Yes, I know.  Only one Rasmussen poll post-primary.  Just a gut feeling.
AZ-Sen:  What Obama is doing is destined to do the Dems tons of damage in Arizona this year.  Once Hayworth is dead, this one goes in Safe, though honestly I suspect even Hayworth would be a pretty clear favorite.
IA-Sen:  Since the R2K flareup, we should put this one where it belongs for now.  Though I was probably going to do it anyways.
OR-Sen:  Wyden is just on the edge of going to Likely R, scary as it might sound to Dems.  An argument can certainly be made for it, fyi.
WA-Sen:  Honestly, I am about this close to putting this race in toss-up, seeing SUSA's primary poll.  Not yet, of course.
WI-Sen:  The polls say this change must be made.

AZ-Gov:  Another gut feeling call - see AZ-Sen for why.
CO-Gov:  Very close to being in Lean R after the iterations from SUSA, PPP and Ras.  One more outside poll saying the same thing will probably push me.
FL-Gov:  Honestly, I suspect Florida's a toss-up (with a slight R lean).  But since no poll has ever put a Dem ahead...
HI-Gov:  Another gut feeling call.  Though I never trust Hawaii polling.
MD-Gov:  Am about this close to putting this one in Toss-up.
ME-Gov:  Another poll showing a tight race and toss-up this goes too.
NH-Gov:  We get a poll showing a 10% or less margin, it goes in Lean D.  Though I'm halfway towards doing that anyways.
NV-Gov:  I'm moving to Likely R.  Sandoval has never polled under 50% against Reid and Nevada always has a perceptible GOP lean at the state level so...
OR-Gov:  When all the polls say tie or small R lead, Lean D is not longer the place.
PA-Gov:  I can make a good case for Corbett being in Likely R.  Get another independent poll with a 10%+ lead, then...
WI-Gov:  Moving to Lean R - PPP and Rasmussen confirm here too.  Though don't trust Wisconsin polling much, it's a strange state.

[Lunar]

OR-Sen:  Wyden is just on the edge of going to Likely R, scary as it might sound to Dems.

Scary indeed

[War on Want]

OR-Sen:  Wyden is just on the edge of going to Likely R, scary as it might sound to Dems.

Scary indeed

Does he mean Likely D?

[Lunar]

No, whoever his opponent is [I can't quite remember] is likely to be your next Senator from Oregon.

Okay I'll stop now.