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Author Topic: Sam Spade's 2010 Predictions  (Read 27851 times)
Mr. Morden
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« Reply #125 on: July 02, 2010, 06:12:37 pm »
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Sam, for the governors' races, you seem to have listed Illinois twice, in toss-up and lean R.
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« Reply #126 on: July 02, 2010, 08:12:45 pm »
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Sam, for the governors' races, you seem to have listed Illinois twice, in toss-up and lean R.


Should be Lean R.  Will correct.
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« Reply #127 on: July 02, 2010, 09:09:00 pm »
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I think it is really neat that the top the bell curve these days is close to an even House, with all the wheeling and dealing, and back stabbing, and ugly deals, and government jobs, and so forth buzzing around below the surface, as the parties jockey for power, and Darrel Issa pines for the subpoena power he so desperately wants, to scrub every sh*t everyone in the executive branch has ever taken, with probably some technical crimes involved committed in all of the horse trading, sounds like fun!  Go for it!
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« Reply #128 on: July 03, 2010, 04:06:26 pm »
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Any particular reason why Rhode Island isn't lean Independent?
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« Reply #129 on: July 03, 2010, 04:07:45 pm »
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Any particular reason why Rhode Island isn't lean Independent?

"Moderate Party" self-funder & Caprio is a strong candidate.
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« Reply #130 on: July 03, 2010, 04:35:00 pm »
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Just bumping this up so I don't lose it when I want to update.  Couple of points...

House should really be bumped up to a 30-35 seat call now. 

In the Senate, I'm really only sensing cosmetic changes right now.  Nothing big.

Governor's races are still wide-open in some sense, but in general I'm seeing a potential Dem massacre really setting up here, perhaps moreso than in other places.  Go figure.

Hate beating a dead horse, but does your already extensive analysis extend to state legislatures, or would that be spreading yourself too thin? 
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« Reply #131 on: July 03, 2010, 06:16:41 pm »
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WI Governor: I think it will be barely Democrat
FL governor: If Rick Scott nominee slight Democrat but otherwise safe McCollum
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« Reply #132 on: July 22, 2010, 04:05:52 pm »
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I've updated Senate and Governor.  House will come this weekend.

I'm very close to making a few changes that I note below.

Senate
NY-Sen (Gillibrand): Am very close to putting this one in Safe.  Probably will next time.
CT-Sen:  I want to see what happens post-primary, but so long as Blumenthal stays safely above 50%, you can expect it in Safe soon enough.
WA-Sen:  We need more polls, though I am pretty close to putting into Toss-up.
WI-Sen:  I put it into toss-up because enough evidence (for me) has been provided that the race is probably within MOE (even though Wisconsin polls and summer polls suck!)
AR-Sen:  Lincoln is not going to put into Safe anytime soon because of the amount of money she has.  Polling-wise, it would fit of course.
DE-Sen:  Another poll like the Rasmussen iteration and it'll go into Lean R.  I wonder how much effect the primary is having here that will resolve itself prior to the election.
LA-Sen:  Part of me wants to put this into Lean R and part doesn't.  I really need more polling.
ND-Sen:  I decided to put Hoeven in Safe b/c nothing has been presented to me that says otherwise, even for an open seat.

Governor
AR-Gov:  Beebe's numbers are likely having to do with a bad Dem year.  He's not in any danger unless he falls below 50% consistently, of course.
NY-Gov:  I'm putting Cuomo in safe - though don't be surprised if the numbers being produced are both a top and bottom.
CO-Gov:  I want to see how the McInnis thing plays out before making a change.  Right now, Dems should be reaping benefits.  We'll see.
ME-Gov:  Just where I believe the race is although I'd love to have more polling.
MD-Gov:  Am close to putting in toss-up.
CA-Gov:  Moving to toss-up because the polling says so.
FL-Gov:  We'll see what happens - but moving to toss-up seems reasonable for now.
GA-Gov:  Moving to toss-up and reevaluating after the runoff.
IL-Gov:  Closer to going into tossup, but not there yet - need another tied poll or poll showing Quinn ahead.
TX-Gov:  See above.
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« Reply #133 on: July 22, 2010, 09:49:23 pm »
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I've updated Senate and Governor.  House will come this weekend.

I'm very close to making a few changes that I note below.

Senate
NY-Sen (Gillibrand): Am very close to putting this one in Safe.  Probably will next time.
CT-Sen:  I want to see what happens post-primary, but so long as Blumenthal stays safely above 50%, you can expect it in Safe soon enough.
WA-Sen:  We need more polls, though I am pretty close to putting into Toss-up.
WI-Sen:  I put it into toss-up because enough evidence (for me) has been provided that the race is probably within MOE (even though Wisconsin polls and summer polls suck!)
AR-Sen:  Lincoln is not going to put into Safe anytime soon because of the amount of money she has.  Polling-wise, it would fit of course.
DE-Sen:  Another poll like the Rasmussen iteration and it'll go into Lean R.  I wonder how much effect the primary is having here that will resolve itself prior to the election.
LA-Sen:  Part of me wants to put this into Lean R and part doesn't.  I really need more polling.
ND-Sen:  I decided to put Hoeven in Safe b/c nothing has been presented to me that says otherwise, even for an open seat.

Governor
AR-Gov:  Beebe's numbers are likely having to do with a bad Dem year.  He's not in any danger unless he falls below 50% consistently, of course.
NY-Gov:  I'm putting Cuomo in safe - though don't be surprised if the numbers being produced are both a top and bottom.
CO-Gov:  I want to see how the McInnis thing plays out before making a change.  Right now, Dems should be reaping benefits.  We'll see.
ME-Gov:  Just where I believe the race is although I'd love to have more polling.
MD-Gov:  Am close to putting in toss-up.
CA-Gov:  Moving to toss-up because the polling says so.
FL-Gov:  We'll see what happens - but moving to toss-up seems reasonable for now.
GA-Gov:  Moving to toss-up and reevaluating after the runoff.
IL-Gov:  Closer to going into tossup, but not there yet - need another tied poll or poll showing Quinn ahead.
TX-Gov:  See above.

You may want to update the "updated" date at the top of the most for these races. It still points at May, and a casual observer won't notice the edit date at the bottom or the posts at the end of the thread.
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« Reply #134 on: July 24, 2010, 01:41:15 pm »
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House updated (finally)

As an overview, my thoughts are that the GOP chances of taking the House are presently somewhere between a 1 in 3 chance (33%) to a 2 in 5 (40%) chance.  An argument can be made for a 50-50 chance, but I'm not making it yet.

I didn't note this earlier, but the GOP chance of taking the Senate is probably at 1 in 10 right now.

Notes on individual races after the line:

AR-02:  Congrats Dems on nominating a black liberal from Little Rock.  Say goodbye to this seat.
AZ-01:  I've said a lot about what Obama is doing to AZ Dems before.
CA-18:  Berryhill raised enough money and can self-fund enough to make this watchable.
CA-44:  Gave up on Hedrick.  No fundraising.
CT-04:  Good fundraising by Debicella.  He's obviously going to need a lot more, but I suspect places like this may be the most surprising in the upcoming election (as will be certain other areas in the opposite direction).
FL-02:  Boyd has a lot of dough.  But he's been acting like someone who's in a lot of trouble, not just from his primary.  DCCC putting him on the list made me finally make this move (and no, I haven't forgotten about the released internal earlier).
FL-12:  Dropped from the list b/c Edwards fundraising continues to be awful in a bad Dem year.
FL-22:  West has a lot of money is this polarized seat.  'nough said.
IA-01:  Not that I believe Braley's in any danger, but this rounds out the watch list among the other seats I could have listed.
IA-02:  I expect to get a certain amount of laughs on this.  But I have a couple of reasons for watching here (even moreso than IA-01) - what do you think they are?
ID-01:  Everything says 'push this race down a level.'  So I have.
IL-11:  Kinzinger is fundraising quite well.
IL-17:  Even before the R poll, this one was going into the Watch List b/c Schilling has fundraised pretty well and Hare has no mountain of dough to back him up.
IN-02:  Walorski had better fundraising than Donnelly this past quarter.  More importantly, if there's any place in the world that's susceptible to waves, it's Indiana.
KS-04:  Lost in the hustle and bustle a bit was SUSA's poll that the non-fundraising black preacher Tillman was beating Raj Goyle in the primary.  Which answers why Raj is spending money already.  Raj can raise money, of course, but I just don't see it happening in a R+13 seat in this year.  Especially when he might get Greened.
KY-03:  Maybe a bit of a surprise from not on Watch List to Likely D.  A few things:  Kelly outraised Yarmuth last quarter and Yarmuth doesn't have a mound of cash.  More importantly, I keep reading rumors from decent sources that the blacks are not particularly happy with Yarmuth.
KY-06:  There's actually a decent case this should go to Lean D as Cook and Rothenberg have it.  As Chandler still has a mound of cash, I disagree, for now.
MA-10:  I tend to agree with the general analysis on this race posted on the forum and have moved accordingly.
MI-03:  Pat Miles is still outraising the Republicans here, fyi.
MS-01:  Both Childers and Nunnelee have raised a good bit of money.  And Childers is quite talented.  But I've been reexamining the demographic makeup of this CD, and with someone from Tupelo running, things just become very difficult for the Dem.  Add to that the fact that there are no top-ballot races, and well, I just think this is the better call, for now...
MN-01:  Good fundraising quarter from Hemmer.
NC-02:  I tend to think this ship has sailed, but we'll give it a month to see.
NC-07:  Pantano had a very good fundraising quarter.
NC-08:  Kissell has no money and no D'Annuzio to run against.
NE-02:  Poor fundraising quarter from White.
NJ-03:  If you have MAS117 utilizing political tactics for your campaign...
NY-19:  Hall continues to get outraised by Hayworth (even if personal money is being partially used).  Considering the makeup of this CD in this year (and where it's located), I think tossup is the appropriate call.
NY-20:  Excellent fundraising quarter by Gibson.
NY-23:  Lots of Republican infighting here makes me downgrade this race.
NY-24:  Arcuri got outraised and has been generally looking like a disaster in everything he does.
NY-29*:  Reed has not been a great fundraiser, but his opponent has raised nothing and this seat always has had a fairly strong GOP tilt anyway.
OH-02:  Schmidt can't raise money but neither can her opponent with the foreign-sounding name.  In this CD, both of these facts = curtains.
OH-13:  As I've mentioned before, this seat is not *that* Democratic and Sutton's given me no reason to think she's not going to get completely drowned out by ads in the upcoming months.
OH-16:  Renacci fundraised the socks off of Boccieri the past quarter.
OR-01:  JLT's feelings kinda sum up mine here.
PA-03:  Yes, I know - Kelly's fundraising was terrible.  And I don't trust internals very much (though they're always at the back of my mind when they show the incumbent down double-digits and I see no incumbent response).  Two things - both Cook and Rothenberg recently moved Dahlkemper to tossup and Dems are still setting up ad time regardless of the clear fundraising disparity.
PA-11:  I don't really trust polling from this area of the world.  That being said, Kanjorski's done nothing to show me that he is anything but the underdog here, IMO.
PA-12:  Burns raised no money this quarter.  He does have personal wealth, but...
SC-05:  Given the environment, this movement feels right.
VA-02:  Both candidates are fundraising well.  Gut feel is really behind this move.
VA-05:  Out of all the Dem wins in 2008, this one was perhaps most due to turnout.  SUSA's recent poll in comparison with 2006 and 2008 makes this crystal clear.
WI-08:  Once again, more of a national/state movement call than anything else.
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« Reply #135 on: July 24, 2010, 01:48:05 pm »
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SENATE

Current Prediction: GOP +5 to 7 seats
(if wave occurs with this map set-up = GOP +7 to 9 seats)

(updated 7/22/2010)

Symbols for Changes
! Republican movement
# Democratic movement

Safe D
Hawaii
Maryland
New York (Schumer)
Oregon

Likely D
Connecticut*
New York (Gillibrand)

Lean D
California
Washington

Toss-up
Colorado (D)
Florida* (R)
Illinois* (D)
Missouri* (R)
Nevada (D)
Ohio* (R)
Pennsylvania* (D)
Wisconsin (D)!

Lean R
Indiana* (D)
Kentucky*
New Hampshire*
North Carolina

Likely R
Arizona
Arkansas (D)
Delaware* (D)
Louisiana

Safe R
Alabama
Alaska
Georgia
Idaho
Iowa
Kansas*
Oklahoma
North Dakota* (D)!
South Carolina
South Dakota
Utah*

I guess I largely agree with this list.  I'd put Wisconsin at Lean D, Arizona is Safe R, but those are quibbles

Agree with the conflicting signals on Delaware and Louisiana. 
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« Reply #136 on: July 24, 2010, 01:59:17 pm »
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Arizona at Safe R b/c Hayworth has no chance - I could buy that interpretation (and may be close to doing so).
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« Reply #137 on: July 24, 2010, 03:06:59 pm »
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I'm surprised to see IL-08 still on the watch list. I thought with the whole Joe Walsh trainwreck, you would've taken it off. I'm also not feeling the WI-08 move; the candidates running against Kagen seem pretty uninspiring.

I've been thinking about the Iowa seats; they just don't look likely enough to flip, though. IA-02 has the better candidate, but it's also the more liberal district.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #138 on: July 28, 2010, 06:05:29 pm »
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So which seats have received DCCC independent ad time buys for the fall?  It's early, of course, and this will change as circumstances do...

DEMS (GOP Targets) (78 seats/25 Watch List)

Likely R 4 seats
AR-02*
LA-03*
NY-29*
TN-06*

Lean R 13 seats
CO-04
IN-08*
KS-03*
MD-01
MS-01
NH-02*
NM-02
NY-24
OH-01
OH-15
PA-11
VA-02
VA-05

Toss-up 24 seats
AL-02
AR-01*
FL-02
FL-08
FL-24
IL-14
IN-09
MI-01*
MI-07
NC-08
ND-AL
NH-01
NV-03
NY-19
OH-16
PA-03
PA-07*
SC-05
SD-AL
TN-08*
TX-17
WA-03*
WI-07*
WV-01*

Lean D 24 seats
AZ-01
AZ-05
AZ-08
CA-11
FL-22
GA-08
IA-03
ID-01
IL-11
IN-02
MA-10*
MO-04
NJ-03
NM-01
NY-01
NY-20
NY-23
OH-13
OH-18
PA-08
TN-04
VA-09
VA-11
WI-08

Likely D 13 seats
CO-03
CT-04
CT-05
IL-17
KY-03
KY-06
NY-13
OR-05
PA-04
PA-10
PA-12
PA-17
TX-23

Watch List 25 seats
AR-04
CA-18
CA-47
CO-07
GA-02
GA-12
IA-01
IA-02
IL-08
MI-09
MN-01
MS-04
MO-03
NC-02
NC-07
NC-11
NJ-12
NY-25
OH-06
OK-02
OR-01
UT-02
WA-02
WV-03
WI-03

GOP (DEM Targets) (10 seats/6 Watch List)

Likely D (1 seat)
LA-02

Lean D (1 seat)
DE-AL*

Toss-up (2 seats)
HI-01
IL-10*

Lean R (5 seats)
CA-03
FL-25*
PA-06
PA-15
WA-08

Likely R (1 seat)
NE-02

Watch List (6 seats)
AZ-03*
CA-45
MI-03*
MN-06
OH-12
SC-02
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« Reply #139 on: July 28, 2010, 06:09:35 pm »
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Yeah, I was comparing the list to mine as well. The only one that really surprised me was Kurt Schrader in OR-05; he doesn't seem to be in that much trouble.
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« Reply #140 on: July 28, 2010, 06:11:02 pm »
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Shrader's district is only D+1, but still a bit surprising? 

Anyway, Sam's list House list here seems really solid.  At least I looked for every race in which I am opinionated about and completely agreed with its ranking
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« Reply #141 on: July 29, 2010, 10:18:19 am »
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Per Sam's latest list, I come up with a projected 30 seat GOP gain.

(4*1)+(13*0.67)+(24*0.5)+(24*0.33)+(13*0.1)=33.93
                                       (-1*1)+(-2*.5)+(-5*.33)=-3.65
                                                                                30.28

                                                                                 
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« Reply #142 on: July 29, 2010, 10:48:04 am »
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Per Sam's latest list, I come up with a projected 30 seat GOP gain.

(4*1)+(13*0.67)+(24*0.5)+(24*0.33)+(13*0.1)=33.93
                                       (-1*1)+(-2*.5)+(-5*.33)=-3.65
                                                                                30.28

                                                                                 

Isn't that what the list says at top?
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« Reply #143 on: July 29, 2010, 10:52:43 am »
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Yours says 30-35 now that I have checked, Sam, and mine says 30.28, so no, it doesn't. Tongue
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« Reply #144 on: July 29, 2010, 03:22:50 pm »
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Per Sam's latest list, I come up with a projected 30 seat GOP gain.

(4*1)+(13*0.67)+(24*0.5)+(24*0.33)+(13*0.1)=33.93
                                       (-1*1)+(-2*.5)+(-5*.33)=-3.65
                                                                                30.28

                                                                                 

This is far too generous to the dems.
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« Reply #145 on: July 29, 2010, 04:03:04 pm »
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Yours says 30-35 now that I have checked, Sam, and mine says 30.28, so no, it doesn't. Tongue

I've been saying that since January.  I still do expect a takeover, at the polls, of either House.
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« Reply #146 on: July 29, 2010, 08:37:00 pm »
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Yours says 30-35 now that I have checked, Sam, and mine says 30.28, so no, it doesn't. Tongue

I've been saying that since January.  I still do expect a takeover, at the polls, of either House.

Dont or do?
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« Reply #147 on: July 31, 2010, 09:46:45 am »
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Just noting that Charlie Cook's guys changed their prediction a couple of days ago to this:

House:  GOP +32 to 42
Senate:  GOP +5 to 7
Governors:  GOP +3 to 5

In the House, Stu Rothenberg's map and his present prediction is 28-33 seats, so that's less bullish for the GOP than Cook, but not too far off, and roughly about where I see it.

In addition, Rothenberg recently said that his present prediction is GOP +5 to 8 in the Senate, so we're all in agreement there too.

Governors ratings are where I think Cook's people are off.  Rothenberg's map would translate into a 6-10 seat gain for the GOP, and right now I'm calling for 6-8, so it's obvious who I side with for now.
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« Reply #148 on: July 31, 2010, 03:09:48 pm »
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My prediction 23 net loss of House seats, 2-3 senate seats and 2-3 governorships.
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« Reply #149 on: July 31, 2010, 07:05:34 pm »
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Ive currently got a loss of 27 in the House for Dems, a four seat loss in the Senate and a net loss of three in governorships.  I almost nailed 2006 and 2008 right on the nose.  In 2008, I overestimated Dem gains in the House and in 2006, I underestimated them.
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