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Author Topic: Sam Spade's 2010 Predictions  (Read 27161 times)
Sam Spade
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« Reply #150 on: August 07, 2010, 12:46:04 pm »
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I generally hate making changes in summer (July 4 - Labor Day is summer), when polling really sucks, but a couple must be made based on overwhelming evidence in my mind.  I've also added a little note as to whether I consider to Tossup pure or Tilt D or R.

Senate

AZ Sen:  Since Hayworth is definitely now dead - to safe this goes.
CO Sen:  I consider it pure Tossup, regardless of what Ras says.
DE Sen:  Castle is still on the edge of Likely R, but my own formula says keep him there and I really want to see what happens primary and post-primary before doing anything.
FL-Sen:  Consider it a pure Tossup.
IL-Sen:  I consider this a pure Tossup b/c self-destruction is a beautiful thing.
LA-Sen:  Really in the same boat as DE Sen.
MO-Sen:  The polling says Tossup/Tilt R.  Maybe even close to Lean R (the closest of any of these, btw), given Missouri history, but I'm not there yet.
NC-Sen:  Given the contours of this race and of North Carolina generally...
NH-Sen:  Not gonna move this one until I start seeing tied polls or leads for the D with rest of polls saying 5 or under (mostly).
NV-Sen:  I consider this pure Tossup, for obvious reasons.
OH-Sen:  I consider this Tossup/Tilt R b/c Fisher has no money at all.
PA-Sen:  Note that I consider it a Pure Tossup.
WA Sen:  I really toyed around with putting this in tossup last time and I'm going to do it this time b/c I really see a distinction between WA and WI vs. CA.  To be fair, I'm putting in the fact that you should consider it Tossup/Tilt D in the Rothenberg lexicon, as it is the better fit, but I'm not really creating those categories yet.  Smiley
WI Sen:  Same - Tossup/Tilt D.
WV Sen:  Added as Likely D.

Governors

AL Gov:  Ron Sparks is the wrong candidate for a state like Alabama and I can't ignore the rural/suburban split in the GOP primary, which is usually the way Dems win here.
CA Gov:  I consider this Tossup/Tilt D.
CO Gov:  Moved to Lean D after the Tancredo entrance and polling for obvious reasons.  Let's see how the CO GOP plays this one now and how the Tancredo support moves.
CT Gov:  Q continues to have this a different race than Rasmussen.  For now, until something plays out for sure - Tossup/Tilt D, but could well be Lean D.
FL Gov:  Pure tossup for now.
GA Gov:  Dittos Florida, until I the primary is done - this one will likely be a real urban/rural split, so watch out...
KS-Gov:  Post-primary, and given Brownback's status, I see no reason to not put in Safe now.
IA Gov:  With Vander Platts announcing no 3rd party bid and every poll (sans R2K) having had Branstad above 50%, Likely R is where it goes for now.
IL Gov:  Show me a tied poll and I'll change the ranking...  Smiley
MD Gov:  I really should have moved this to Tossup (Tilt D) last time after a tied poll appeared and rest of polls continue to show margin under 5 - doing so now.
ME Gov: Rasmussen says should be Tossup (Tilt R) perhaps Lean R.  In general, LePage has been making a number of gaffes recently, so I'm keeping Tossup (Pure) for now.
MN Gov: Moved to Lean D, given the polling.
NM Gov:  Pure tossup for now.
OH Gov:  Pure tossup for now.  I never think highly of incumbents in Strickland's position, but Kasich's campaign so far..., well, but less said about it.
OR Gov:  Pure tossup because of Oregon's predilections.  That being said, the polling really leans toward Tossup/Tilt R.
RI Gov:  Pure tossup for now.
SC Gov:  I'm thinking this is probably Likely R, but I want another non-Rasmussen poll to do anything.
SD Gov:  Post-primary, I see no reason to not put this in safe now.  Democrats haven't controlled this since the late 1970s anyway.
VT Gov:  I have it in Tossup/Tilt R for no other reason than Rothenberg agrees.  Tell me otherwise.
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« Reply #151 on: August 10, 2010, 01:42:47 pm »
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A POS GOP internal has the GOP guy beating the Dem in Ill-11 by 11%.  Check out campaign spot.
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« Reply #152 on: August 10, 2010, 01:54:59 pm »
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A POS GOP internal has the GOP guy beating the Dem in Ill-11 by 11%.  Check out campaign spot.

He's attractive and serving in the AF doesn't hurt, but he's from the wrong part of the district and has never run for anything more than county board. Wave potential until something changes, I'd say.
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« Reply #153 on: August 10, 2010, 02:12:49 pm »
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A POS GOP internal has the GOP guy beating the Dem in Ill-11 by 11%.  Check out campaign spot.

He's attractive and serving in the AF doesn't hurt, but he's from the wrong part of the district and has never run for anything more than county board. Wave potential until something changes, I'd say.

Well, then either you think the poll sucks, or the Dem will recover, no? I mean 11% margin is pretty big, and might be hard to explain away, even in an internal, unless it is like that Washington State poll, that has now been exposed as gigo.
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« Reply #154 on: August 10, 2010, 02:43:47 pm »
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Well, then either you think the poll sucks, or the Dem will recover, no? I mean 11% margin is pretty big, and might be hard to explain away, even in an internal, unless it is like that Washington State poll, that has now been exposed as gigo.

I think there is always a presumption of suckage with internal polls until there is some confirmation of some element of it. There is zero quality control and they could be swinging for the fences to bring in money and attention. For confirmation, I'd look for a neutral poll showing Obama's rating in the toilet in this district, or Halvorson's rating in the toilet, or Halvorson tied with Kinzinger, or some other reason Halvorson should be doing so badly against an unknown generic R other than that she's a Democrat, which isn't enough in this district.

Of course if the internal poll showed him losing narrowly and with 31% of the vote, that would be an indicator that the numbers for himself are bad. There's still the potential he's doing well, but that's it.
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« Reply #155 on: August 10, 2010, 05:39:43 pm »
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Wasn't he the one who was raising a ton of money a few months ago?


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« Reply #156 on: August 10, 2010, 08:37:32 pm »
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Wasn't he the one who was raising a ton of money a few months ago?

http://www.pantagraph.com/news/state-and-regional/illinois/article_86c57c88-9047-11df-b7dd-001cc4c002e0.html

He raised $325,000 last quarter, she raised $300,000, but she's got $840,000 more than he does. He's in the game but I wouldn't call that big money.
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« Reply #157 on: August 10, 2010, 10:19:35 pm »
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The way things are going, I suspect money will be rolling in to GOP candidates big time, particularly with campaign contribution limits largely dead. Money follows the smell of power.
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« Reply #158 on: August 10, 2010, 10:31:52 pm »
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The way things are going, I suspect money will be rolling in to GOP candidates big time, particularly with campaign contribution limits largely dead. Money follows the smell of power.

True, Obama's ineptitude and Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission are a perfect storm for the party of crazy.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #159 on: August 19, 2010, 03:31:33 pm »
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Made some changes to Governor and Senate today.  House probably not until Labor Day and I doubt many more changes until then.
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« Reply #160 on: August 19, 2010, 04:22:46 pm »
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Apparently some mickey mouse outfit has Skelton in trouble.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #161 on: August 19, 2010, 04:38:01 pm »
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Apparently some mickey mouse outfit has Skelton in trouble.

Ya, I saw that crap. 

Basically I suspect the story with Skelton is the same as the story with Boucher in the SUSA poll a few months ago (and I suspect the same with a lot of old-time Dem incumbents in these types of seats).  Both are getting 25-30% of Republicans and splitting Independents.  So long as this continues, they'll be fine, but with narrower margins in the past.  If that breaks down, well then...
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« Reply #162 on: August 19, 2010, 10:29:10 pm »
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Well, then either you think the poll sucks, or the Dem will recover, no? I mean 11% margin is pretty big, and might be hard to explain away, even in an internal, unless it is like that Washington State poll, that has now been exposed as gigo.

I think there is always a presumption of suckage with internal polls until there is some confirmation of some element of it. There is zero quality control and they could be swinging for the fences to bring in money and attention. For confirmation, I'd look for a neutral poll showing Obama's rating in the toilet in this district, or Halvorson's rating in the toilet, or Halvorson tied with Kinzinger, or some other reason Halvorson should be doing so badly against an unknown generic R other than that she's a Democrat, which isn't enough in this district.

Of course if the internal poll showed him losing narrowly and with 31% of the vote, that would be an indicator that the numbers for himself are bad. There's still the potential he's doing well, but that's it.

Well one clue today comes from Halvorson's side.

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U.S. Rep. Debbie Halvorson has fired her campaign manager, less than three months before the November general election.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #163 on: August 28, 2010, 09:22:48 am »
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updated
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« Reply #164 on: August 28, 2010, 09:29:14 am »
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I note a lot of '!' symbols.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #165 on: August 28, 2010, 09:49:13 am »
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I note a lot of '!' symbols.

Kinda been that way all year.
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« Reply #166 on: August 28, 2010, 10:04:35 am »
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Yeah. Situation now totally out of control?
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« Reply #167 on: August 28, 2010, 10:24:57 am »
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updated

It looks like that if things stay the same, that you are joining the GOP is more likely than not to take over the House club. Assuming there is quite a bit of correlation between the seats that are really up in the air, that creates it looks like, if your calls are right, a swing of from about 40-55 to 60 seats, depending on the exact size of the wave, and to the extent the size varies by region, where it just chews up the beach, and where it also takes all out the beach houses.

Am I reading your tea leaves (and sometimes well camouflaged mind) correctly?  Smiley
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #168 on: August 28, 2010, 10:53:17 am »
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Yeah. Situation now totally out of control?

Almost, in my mind.

I've always thought that you can get a grip around where an election is headed sometime around Labor Day though the Washington insiders never will act on this until early October (maybe late September).

Basically, I am close to thinking 5 Senate seats and 25-30 House seats are pretty much gone right now.  Republicans are hyperenthused and Independents (in my best judgment) have turned away from Dems.  The latter I am sure of, the former, probably only about 90% sure, henceforth the caveat.  Dems are also non-enthused, which can be affected.

In the Senate, I still think Dems can focus in on a couple of the open Senate seats (KY, OH, maybe FL), though I am starting to think more and more that MO and NH are lost.  Otherwise, they need to focus on WA, WI and CO (maybe PA - though Toomey is quite strong in an excellent GOP environment).  NV and IL, are in a certain sense, out of their control, even though clearly winnable.  You know my opinion on CA.

In the House, looking at the Likely R/Lean R list, these seats (with one exception) are either filled with young incumbents or are open, and more importantly, Dems in these seats are going to require more than just "getting the Dem base out" in order to win.  If Indys have turned away, they're dead.  And it's highly unlikely that Republicans have developed any fondness to these incumbents to provide any replacement.

To me, this means that the Dems should be preparing a firewall strategy at my tossup/Lean D level in the House where the incumbents are stronger/older or the demographics are more favorable in order to save it - now!  This is the type of election where a loss of 60-70 seats is certainly within the realm of possibilities and must be taken seriously IMHO (in other words, greater than a 10% chance).  Even losing 40-50 would be better than that end result.

Just FYI, Republicans actually did a halfway-reasonable (i.e. mediocre) firewall strategy in 2006 early enough which saved them about ten seats (most of which they lost in 2008 anyway).  A better firewall could save more, possibly.

Also - commentary - Obama, over the last few months, has been the most clueless and out-of-touch president I've ever seen.  Definitely moreso than Bush at his worst and maybe even worse than Carter.  He's emphasizing issues that he can never win (i.e. he's on the side of Michael Bloomberg) and these issues are the type which galvanize people against him horribly.  Moreover, and I must make this comment for all those who think otherwise, if he wants people to think he's a Muslim, he's done a better job of it in his actions than I could have ever thought possible.

Add this to the bad economy - which btw Republicans being in power will change nothing on that front, as I've said for a couple of years now - and you get this.
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« Reply #169 on: August 28, 2010, 12:12:16 pm »
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I am wondering if MN-8 should be put on a watch list. I mean, the CD is getting rather marginal in its partisan balance these days (look at the MN 2008 Leips trend map for POTUS), and the right to lifers are heading up there to trash Oberstar as a traitor to the cause over the deal he brokered to get HCR passed with pro life Dem votes. And the GOP candidate appears highly presentable to me, fwiw. What I would watch for is money suddenly coming over the transom, and/or independent expenditures. In other words, in a big wave, this seat has some potential to be in play perhaps. We shall see if the money has the same perception.

MN-1 meanwhile has gone beyond watch list to me. It is more like, likely to lean Dem, to me.
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« Reply #170 on: August 28, 2010, 12:20:41 pm »
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You can tell a party is desperate when the bring up issues that help them, but aren't relevant to the election. If you've notice, Democrats have brought up Social Security a lot lately. So even they know they're screwed.
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« Reply #171 on: August 28, 2010, 12:21:25 pm »
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The DFL vote in that part of Minnesota is very solid and has never shown any signs of scattering in the past. If that one were to fall, we'd be looking at over a hundred Republican gains.
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« Reply #172 on: August 28, 2010, 12:29:58 pm »
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The DFL vote in that part of Minnesota is very solid and has never shown any signs of scattering in the past. If that one were to fall, we'd be looking at over a hundred Republican gains.

More likely than not, I agree, but that is solely because Oberstar heretofore has been held in high esteem (he is a very nice man, and a class act btw on a personal level), and is very well entrenched. Sure, St. Louis County is reliably Dem, but vis a vis the national partisan balance, regressing some towards the mean, and the Southern part of the CD is GOP, including 3-4 exurban counties, and the demographic balance is slowly moving south.

This is how MN-8 voted in 2008:

Obama 195,147
McCain 163,520

Oh, and including the watch list, Sam has 105 Dem seats in play, so he met your 100 number and raised you. Smiley
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #173 on: August 28, 2010, 12:41:40 pm »
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I've certainly been giving thought to pushing MN-01 up to Likely D, most certainly.

With MN-08, I've got about 5-10 CDs I'd put on the watch list before it in my view, though I agree the candidate is presentable.

Though I agree with Al too - if MN-08 falls, 100 seats are falling, and probably every one in Iowa, just to get my drift.  We're not there, at all, imo.
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« Reply #174 on: August 28, 2010, 12:43:18 pm »
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I've certainly been giving thought to pushing MN-01 up to Likely D, most certainly.

With MN-08, I've got about 5-10 CDs I'd put on the watch list before it in my view, though I agree the candidate is presentable.

Though I agree with Al too - if MN-08 falls, 100 seats are falling, and probably every one in Iowa, just to get my drift.  We're not there, at all, imo.

Even the Iowa City CD? 
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