Sam Spade's 2010 Predictions

[Sam Spade]

FINAL SENATE RANKINGS

Safe D
Connecticut*
Delaware*
Hawaii
Maryland
New York (Gillibrand)
New York (Schumer)
Oregon

Lean D
California

Toss-up/Tilt D
West Virginia* (D)

Pure Toss-up
Colorado (D)
Illinois* (D)
Washington (D)

Toss-up/Tilt R
Nevada (D)
Pennsylvania* (D)

Lean R
Alaska*

Safe R
Alabama
Arizona
Arkansas (D)
Florida*
Georgia
Idaho
Indiana* (D)
Iowa
Kansas*
Kentucky*
Louisiana
Missouri*
New Hampshire*
North Carolina
North Dakota* (D)
Ohio*
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Utah*
Wisconsin (D)

FINAL SENATE PREDICTIONS (GOP gains 9, Dems gain 0, GOP +9 = 50 GOP, 48 DEM, 2 IND)

Alabama:  Shelby (R) 66, Barnes (D) 34 (GOP HOLD)
Alaska:  Miller (R) 40, McAdams (D) 29, Murkowski (I) 29, Other 2 (GOP HOLD)
Arizona:  McCain (R) 57, Glassman (D) 38, Other 5 (GOP HOLD)
Arkansas:  Boozman (R) 58, Lincoln (D) 39, Other 3 (GOP PICKUP)
California:  Boxer (D) 50, Fiorina (R) 46, Other 4 (DEM HOLD)
Colorado*:  Buck (R) 51, Bennet (D) 47, Other 2 (GOP PICKUP)
Connecticut*:  Blumenthal (D) 54, McMahon (R) 44, Other 2 (DEM HOLD)
Delaware* (Kaufman):  Coons (D) 53, O’Donnell (R) 43, Other 4 (DEM HOLD)
Florida*:  Rubio (R) 48, Crist (I) 28, Meek (D) 22, Other 2 (GOP HOLD)
Georgia:  Isakson (R) 59, Thurmond (D) 38, Other 3 (GOP HOLD)
Hawaii:  Inouye (D) 68, Cavasso (R) 27, Other 5 (DEM HOLD)
Idaho:  Crapo (R) 70, Sullivan (D) 26, Other 4 (GOP HOLD)
Illinois*:  Kirk (R) 48, Giannoulias (D) 47, Other 5 (GOP PICKUP)
Indiana*:  Coats (R) 56, Ellsworth (D) 41, Other 3 (GOP PICKUP)
Iowa:  Grassley (R) 61, Conlin (D) 37, Other 2 (GOP HOLD)
Kansas*:  Moran (R) 68, Huelskamp (D) 28, Other 4 (GOP HOLD)
Kentucky*:  Paul (R) 56, Conway (D) 44 (GOP HOLD)
Louisiana:  Vitter (R) 54, Melancon (D) 41, Other 5 (GOP HOLD)
Maryland:  Mikulski (D) 59, Wargotz (R) 39, Other 2 (DEM HOLD)
Missouri*:  Blunt (R) 53, Carnahan (D) 44, Other 3 (GOP HOLD)
Nevada:  Angle (R) 50, Reid (D) 47, Other 3 (GOP PICKUP)
New Hampshire*:  Ayotte (R) 55, Hodes (D) 41, Other 4 (GOP HOLD)
New York (Gillibrand):  Gillibrand (D) 57, Dioguardi 38, Other 5 (DEM HOLD)
New York (Schumer):  Schumer (D) 62, Townsend (R) 35, Other 3 (DEM HOLD)
North Carolina:  Burr (R) 54, Marshall (D) 42, Other 4 (GOP HOLD)
North Dakota*:  Hoeven (R) 71, Potter (D) 26, Other 3 (GOP PICKUP)
Ohio*:  Portman (R) 58, Fisher (D) 40, Other 2 (GOP HOLD)
Oklahoma:  Coburn (R) 69, Rogers (D) 28, Other 3 (GOP HOLD)
Oregon:  Wyden (D) 55, Huffman (R) 40, Other 5 (DEM HOLD)
Pennsylvania:  Toomey (R) 53, Sestak (D) 47 (GOP PICKUP)
South Carolina:  DeMint (R) 62, Greene (D) 29, Other 9 (GOP HOLD)
South Dakota:  Thune (R) 100 (GOP HOLD)
Utah*:  Lee (R) 60, Granato (D) 34, Other 6 (GOP HOLD)
Vermont:  Leahy (D) 64, Britton 30, Other 6 (DEM HOLD)
Washington:  Rossi (R) 50.3, Murray (D) 49.7 (GOP PICKUP)
West Virginia* (Goodwin):  Manchin 51, Raese 47, Other 2 (DEM HOLD)
Wisconsin:  Johnson (R) 53, Feingold (D) 46, Other 1 (GOP PICKUP)

[Sam Spade]

FINAL HOUSE RANKINGS

DEMS (GOP Targets) (100 seats/25 Watch List)

Going R (15 seats)
AR-02*
CO-04
FL-08
FL-24
KS-03*
IL-11
IN-08*
LA-03*
NM-02
NY-29*
OH-01
OH-15
PA-03
TN-06*
TN-08*

Lean R (20 seats)
AZ-01
FL-02
GA-08
MD-01
MI-01*
MS-01
ND-AL
NH-01
NV-03
OH-16
OH-18
OR-05
PA-08
SC-05
TX-17
VA-02
VA-05
WA-03*
WI-07*
WI-08

Toss-up/Tilt R (15 seats)
AL-02
AR-01*
AZ-05
CA-11
CO-03
IL-14
IL-17
IN-09
NJ-03
NY-19
NY-20
PA-07*
PA-11
SD-AL

Pure Toss-up (15 seats)
AZ-08
CA-20
FL-22
GA-02
IN-02
MA-10*
MO-04
MS-04
NM-01
NY-23
OH-06
TN-04
TX-23
VA-09
WV-01*

Toss-up/Tilt D (15 seats)
CT-05
IA-01
IA-02
ID-01
KY-06
MI-07
NC-02
NC-07
NC-08
NH-02*
NY-01
NY-24
PA-10
PA-12
VA-11

Lean D (20 seats)
AZ-07
CA-47
CO-07
CT-04
IA-03
KY-03
ME-01
ME-02
MI-09
MN-01
MN-08
NC-11
NY-22
NY-25
PA-04
RI-01*
TX-27
WA-02
WI-03

Watch List (25 seats)
AR-04
CA-18
GA-12
IL-08
MA-04
MA-05
MA-06
MN-07
MO-03
NM-03
NJ-06
NJ-12
NY-02
NY-04
NY-13
OH-10
OH-13
OK-02
OR-01
OR-04
PA-17
TN-05
TX-25
UT-02
WA-09
WV-03

GOP (DEM Targets) (9 seats/6 Watch List)

Going D (2 seats)
DE-AL
LA-02

Toss-up/Tilt D (1 seats)
IL-10*

Toss-up/Tilt R (2 seats)
HI-01
FL-25*

Lean R (4 seats)
AZ-03*
CA-03
FL-12*
WA-08

Watch List (6 seats)
CA-45
MI-03*
MN-06
NE-02
PA-06
PA-15

FINAL HOUSE PREDICTIONS (NOT FINAL FOR NOW - may be less)

GOP PICKUPS (74 seats)
AL-02
AR-01*
AR-02*
AZ-01
AZ-05
AZ-08
CA-11
CA-20
CO-03
CO-04
CT-04!
CT-05
FL-02
FL-08
FL-22
FL-24
GA-02
GA-08
IA-01!
IA-02
ID-01!
IL-08!
IL-11
IL-14!
IL-17
IN-02!
IN-08*
IN-09
LA-03*
MD-01
MI-01*
MI-07!
MI-09!
MN-08!
MO-04
MS-01
MS-04
NC-02!
NC-07!
NC-08
ND-AL!
NH-01
NJ-03
NM-01!
NM-02
NV-03
NY-01!
NY-19
NY-20!
NY-23!
NY-29*
OH-01
OH-15
OH-16
OH-18
OR-05
PA-03
PA-07*
PA-08
PA-10!
SC-05
SD-AL
TN-04
TN-06*
TN-08*
TX-17
TX-23
VA-02
VA-05
VA-11
WA-03*
WI-03!
WI-07*
WI-08

DEM PICKUPS (3 seats)
DE-AL*
IL-10
LA-02

[Sam Spade]

FINAL GOVERNOR RANKINGS

Safe D
Arkansas
California* (R)
Maryland
New York*

Lean D
Colorado*
Minnesota* (R)
Massachusetts
New Hampshire

Toss-up/Tilt D
Hawaii* (R)

Pure Toss-up
Connecticut* (R)
Florida* (R)
Ohio (D)
Oregon* (D)
Vermont* (R)

Toss-up/Tilt R
Illinois* (D)

Lean R
Georgia*
Maine* (D)
Pennsylvania* (D)
South Carolina*

Safe R
Alabama*
Alaska
Arizona
Kansas*
Idaho
Iowa (D)
Michigan* (D)
Nebraska
New Mexico* (D)
Nevada*
Oklahoma* (D)
South Dakota*
Tennessee* (D)
Texas
Wisconsin* (D)
Utah
Wyoming* (D)

Tossup/Tilt I
Rhode Island* (R)

FINAL GOVERNOR PREDICTIONS (GOP gains 12, DEM gains 5, GOP +7)

Alabama*:  Bentley (R) 61, Sparks (D) 39 (GOP HOLD)
Alaska:  Parnell (R) 60, Berkowitz (D) 35, Other 5 (GOP HOLD)
Arizona:  Brewer (R) 55, Goddard (D) 43, Other 2 (GOP HOLD)
Arkansas:  Beebe (D) 58, Keet (D) 39, Other 3 (DEM HOLD)
California*:  Brown (D) 51, Whitman (R) 45, Other 4 (DEM PICKUP)
Colorado*:  Hickenlooper (D) 47, Tancredo (I) 45, Maes (R) 6, Other 2 (DEM HOLD)
Connecticut*:  Foley (R) 49, Malloy (D) 48, Other 3 (GOP HOLD)
Florida*:  Scott (R) 48.4, Sink (D) 48.2, Other 3.4 (GOP HOLD) - I'm going against M-D here, I expect to be wrong.
Georgia*:  Deal (R) 52, Barnes (D) 43, Other 5 (GOP HOLD)
Hawaii*:  Abercrombie (D) 51, Aiona (R) 47, Other 2 (DEM PICKUP)
Idaho:  Otter (R) 59, Allred (D) 37, Other 4 (GOP HOLD)
Illinois:  Brady (R) 48, Quinn (D) 42, Other 10 (GOP PICKUP)
Iowa:  Branstad (R) 55, Culver (D) 42, Other 3 (GOP PICKUP)
Kansas*:  Brownback (R) 62, Holland 35, Other 3 (GOP PICKUP)
Maine*:  LePage (R) 43, Mitchell (D) 27, Cutler (I) 27, Other 3 (GOP PICKUP)
Maryland:  O’Malley (D) 54, Ehrlich (R) 44, Other 2 (DEM HOLD)
Massachusetts:  Patrick (D) 47, Baker (R) 45, Cahill (I) 6, Other 2 (DEM HOLD)
Michigan*:  Snyder (R) 58, Bernero (D) 40, Other 2 (GOP PICKUP)
Minnesota:  Dayton (D) 43, Emmer (R) 42, Horner (I) 14, Other 1 (DEM PICKUP)
Nebraska:  Heineman (R) 74, Meister (D) 26 (GOP HOLD)
Nevada*:  Sandoval (R) 57, Reid (D) 39, Other 4 (GOP HOLD)
New Hampshire:  Lynch (D) 51, Stephen (R) 48, Other 1 (DEM HOLD)
New Mexico*:  Martinez (R) 54, Denish (D) 46 (GOP PICKUP)
New York*:  Cuomo (D) 56, Paladino (R) 39, Other 5 (DEM HOLD)
Ohio:  Kasich (R) 51, Strickland (D) 48, Other 1 (GOP PICKUP)
Oklahoma*:  Fallin (R) 59, Askins (D) 41 (GOP PICKUP)
Oregon*:  Kitzhaber (D) 48.2, Dudley 48.0, Other 3.8 (DEM HOLD)
Pennsylvania*:  Corbett (R) 54, Onorato (D) 46 (GOP PICKUP)
Rhode Island*:  Caprio (D) 35, Chafee (I) 33, Robataille (R) 30, Other 2 (DEM PICKUP) - surprise call of the evening, I expect this to be wrong...
South Carolina*:  Haley (R) 53, Shaheen (D) 45, Other 2 (GOP HOLD)
South Dakota*:  Daugaard (R) 60, Heidepreim (D) 40 (GOP HOLD)
Tennessee*:  Haslam (R) 61, McWherter (D) 35, Other 4 (GOP PICKUP)
Texas:  Perry (R) 53, White (D) 44, Other 3 (GOP HOLD)
Utah:  Herbert (R) 61, Corroon (D) 35, Other 4 (GOP HOLD)
Vermont*:  Shumlin (D) 51, Dubie (R) 44, Other 5 (DEM PICKUP)
Wisconsin*:  Walker (R) 54, Barrett (D) 44, Other 2 (GOP PICKUP)
Wyoming*:  Mead (R) 64, Petersen (D) 34, Other 2 (GOP PICKUP)

[Sam Spade]

I thought Freundenthal was term-limited.

It's kind of complicated - basically the Wyoming Supreme Court ruled term limits were unconstitutional with regards to some other state office (I forget which one) but didn't touch the Governor's office. 

Still, it's been assumed that the Governor's office term limits are unconstitutional, but Freundenthal would have to challenge it and he said he'd let us know by March.  The Republicans who control Wyoming have basically been happy with his leadership, so he might not get a serious challenge, who knows...

[Sam Spade]

Made a few changes to the Senate races with the news.  Blumenthal makes CT Likely D for me and Hoeven makes ND Likely R for me until I see something which makes me think otherwise.  I also put MA at Likely R because even though I believe it's safe - races that I happen to believe are within 10 points I find very hard to put in Safe (i.e. it's a technical change).

My House race material is going to remain unchanged for the next few weeks until all the fundraising stuff comes in - but there are going to be changes when it occurs.

[Sam Spade]

Yes.  Oops 

[Sam Spade]

Why do you see Pat Tiberi as being so vulnerable? That's the one rating on your House list that really jumps out at me.

It should because it should be lower. 

I really need to revise the rankings and move some things around but I'm not going to do it right now.

[Sam Spade]

All these things will be taken care of in due time, folks.  I haven't given a "serious" look at things in a couple of months.  When I do, I'll bump it up.  Today was only for the Senate stuff.

[Sam Spade]

Considering Kirk's continued fundraising advantage, do you now consider IL to be closer to a tossup after what we just saw in MA?  I mean, if the Democrats couldn't count on the MA machine...

I have always considered Illinois a toss-up.  Illinois has some working-class areas, yes...    But they may be less-likely to be open to revolt.

[Sam Spade]

Might as well put all Democratic seats on the watch list now.

lol

I was going to put PA-17 there on the update.  Don't fret.

[Sam Spade]

Might as well put all Democratic seats on the watch list now.

lol

I was going to put PA-17 there on the update.  Don't fret.

Rumor has it a new poll in NY-16 shows Jose Serrano down by 20 points to an unnamed "tea party candidate"....

lol - the reason why PA-17 would be on the watch list, of course, is because Holden has got what looks to me to be serious challenge.

[Sam Spade]

I know. NY-16 should at least be considered lean Dem.

In all seriousness I do agree on PA-17, though at this point I'd say every district with a PVI of R+5 or greater really should automatically be considered watch list until further evidence proves otherwise.

Fair enough - I've given thought to that myself of the past couple of weeks.

[Sam Spade]

Updated Senate today.

Will update Governors tomorrow and probably House later this week (it takes the most time).

I did switch Indiana to Likely D, but I will move to Lean D if Pence actually runs (just a suspicion).

[Sam Spade]

with the damages to white working-class voters in  MA, I wonder if PA is actually Lean (R) until the Democrats can show some strength with the type

Maybe. 

This is actually a pretty conservative (in terms of calls, not ideology) prediction, all told.  But I tend to be that way until primaries start hitting us because the polling presently has too many undecideds IMO.

A more liberal prediction (where I think things are headed and what the polls appear to be telling me) would put Indiana in Lean D; Colorado, Kentucky and Pennsylvania in Lean R (I see nothing but trouble for Dems in Colorado) and Florida in Likely R (even with Meek's fundraising haul). 

Heck, a more liberal call would put Delaware in Likely R given the lack of serious opponent.

[Sam Spade]

Updated Governor, moved Indiana to lean D on the news that Coats is running.

New House list will be done sometime soon, I hope.

[Sam Spade]

Uploaded the updated House stuff - without exact numbers, just more of in a group, and all...

I expect and await criticism, naturally.

[Sam Spade]

It is a set of anti-wave predictions, which in the end, I consider more likely than wave predictions. However, in the Senate, putting Kentucky for example as a toss up is interesting. It must be the latest poll or something.  Anyway, Sam, with this set of predictions, the GOP would be lucky to gain four seats. It looks like a 20 seat or so gain in the House for the GOP from this set of predictions. That might be the top of the bell curve, but I suspect the non symmetrical tails suggest something a bit more. I would be surprised however if the GOP gains more than 30 seats in the House absent a robust wave. And I lack confidence in the GOP to manage effecting a wave, absent the economy remaining comatose. Heath care alone won't cut it. The GOP just hasn't been skilled or persuasive enough to present a case of the kind that I would present I suspect, on that one, and my case is more long term, and voters just don't have that kind of time horizon.

The real wild card at the margins, is whether there will be a disproportionate GOP turnout. Who knows?

KY should be in Lean R, given latest polls.  I just haven't changed it.  Today's modifications were House.  Sorry.

I have said now, about 3-4 times in the past few days, that if the election were held today, the GOP would gain about 20-25 seats.  Of course, that's today and not six months from now (whether good or bad for both parties).  And that goes for all the predictions.

I agree that without a wave, the GOP top is about 30 seats.  Problem is that nearly of the set factors I look at which are needed for a wave to actually occur at this point are in alignment (which means that I agree with Cook on that point - not necessarily on its conclusion).

I also agree with you about the GOP's incompetence in message.  However, while a set factor and one of the few that's not in alignment, that's not, imo, a necessary factor to a wave, and perhaps more interestingly, usually doesn't come into alignment until later on.

[Sam Spade]

Made some changes to Senate/Governor today.  Also created Toss-up/Lean D, Pure Toss-up and Toss-up/Lean R for Senate races only as we're starting to get some idea where things begin there so far.

[Sam Spade]

Made some changes to Senate/Governor today.  Also created Toss-up/Lean D, Pure Toss-up and Toss-up/Lean R for Senate races only as we're starting to get some idea where things begin there so far.

Now I decided to get rid of the Toss-up variations for now.  Flip-flop...

Btw, I am starting to see more of the logic that Al's reaching at in concluding that Republicans, in the end, may have a better shot at taking the Senate than the House.

[Sam Spade]

Too many Dem incumbents at or below the 50% mark (or upside down in terms of approvals).

[Sam Spade]

Too many Dem incumbents at or below the 50% mark (or upside down in terms of approvals).

True, but I'm sure there are quite a few in the House for whom that is true, as well (there just isn't as much polling).

It's problematic for the House, but much more problematic for Senate incumbents, at least historically.  Doesn't necessarily mean anything really bad is definitely going to happen, but it ain't a good sign.

[Sam Spade]

Uploaded the updated House stuff - without exact numbers, just more of in a group, and all...

I expect and await criticism, naturally.

Republicans have third-tier candidates in AR-1 and TN-8 vs. first-tier Democrats. That may be enough in a serious wave election for them to be toss-ups, but for now, we have to see if they even become viable third-tier candidates.

I agree with you on AR-1 to a certain extent.  The GOP candidates suck there - but if there's a place where even a local wave will occur, it'll be Arkansas.  It should probably be moved to Lean D (and MA-10 to toss-up, but I haven't done so yet)

I can't agree on TN-8 - the Republican there is a fundraising machine and nearly all of his contributions come from in the CD.  Honestly, it's only toss-up to me because of the historic Dem nature of the region and the quality of the D candidate.  You'll notice that Mr. Longtorso is less optimistic than I am for Dems there, and I understand why.

[Sam Spade]

I can't agree on TN-8 - the Republican there is a fundraising machine and nearly all of his contributions come from in the CD.  Honestly, it's only toss-up to me because of the historic Dem nature of the region and the quality of the D candidate.  You'll notice that Mr. Longtorso is less optimistic than I am for Dems there, and I understand why.

Which Republican in TN-8 are you referring to? I see two who have raised a fair bit of money, confusingly.

Let me clarify:

Stephen Fincher has raised $620,000 in two quarters, which is roughly about the same as Herron did for both his abandoned governor's campaign and has so far in the House race total.  He's the one the NRCC is hot on and I must admit $620,000 in two quarters for a non-political, non-moneyed candidate in a not-rich district is quite impressive.

Ron Kirkland is his main opponent - he reported $365,000 in one month but didn't disclose whether it was loans, self-funding or what.

I have noticed that George Flinn (Shelby Commissioner) is running too - but he hasn't raised anything.

[Sam Spade]

This isn't addressed to Sam, but I guess I'll post it here.

How's Hodes doing in New Hampshire?  He has never been a strong fundraiser, but Ayotte hasn't seemed as strong in real life as she sounded on paper either.

Hodes is about as close as you can come to having Generic Democrat running for office. So all Ayotte has to do to win is avoid making gaffes.

and win her primary

true, but can't answer that now.

[Sam Spade]

Indeed, it just has never seemed like Hodes will win while Gillibrand, Boxer, and Feingold are  still threatened...but we've heard so little from the state, so the national media hasn't really paid too much attention to this race, or even Hode's votes.  I haven't ever seen an article discussing how Hode's voted, while pretty much every other senatorial or gubernatorial Congressman in a competitive state has generated plenty of media coverage.

He voted for HC - that's all I know.  But I don't really pay close attention to NH politics.

Also - the polling really puts Boxer in quite a different league than Gillibrand and Feingold.