Sam Spade's 2010 Predictions

[Brittain33]

Uploaded the updated House stuff - without exact numbers, just more of in a group, and all...

I expect and await criticism, naturally.

Republicans have third-tier candidates in AR-1 and TN-8 vs. first-tier Democrats. That may be enough in a serious wave election for them to be toss-ups, but for now, we have to see if they even become viable third-tier candidates.

[Brittain33]

I can't agree on TN-8 - the Republican there is a fundraising machine and nearly all of his contributions come from in the CD.  Honestly, it's only toss-up to me because of the historic Dem nature of the region and the quality of the D candidate.  You'll notice that Mr. Longtorso is less optimistic than I am for Dems there, and I understand why.

Which Republican in TN-8 are you referring to? I see two who have raised a fair bit of money, confusingly.

[Brittain33]

If this year turns into a 9-10 seat gain for the R's, the D's could have modest losses in 2012 and 2014 and be at 40 or below.

Interesting. You're predicting the largest Senate majority for Republicans since the aftermath of the Treaty of Versailles failure in 1921.

[Brittain33]

Indeed, it just has never seemed like Hodes will win while Gillibrand, Boxer, and Feingold are  still threatened...but we've heard so little from the state, so the national media hasn't really paid too much attention to this race, or even Hode's votes.  I haven't ever seen an article discussing how Hode's voted, while pretty much every other senatorial or gubernatorial Congressman in a competitive state has generated plenty of media coverage.

I've seen nothing in the Boston Globe. But if there was anyone who should take fright from Scott Brown's win, it's him. I wouldn't trust N.H. to vote Democratic any further than I could throw it. (Can I say that?)

[Brittain33]

A POS GOP internal has the GOP guy beating the Dem in Ill-11 by 11%.  Check out campaign spot.

He's attractive and serving in the AF doesn't hurt, but he's from the wrong part of the district and has never run for anything more than county board. Wave potential until something changes, I'd say.

[Brittain33]

Well, then either you think the poll sucks, or the Dem will recover, no? I mean 11% margin is pretty big, and might be hard to explain away, even in an internal, unless it is like that Washington State poll, that has now been exposed as gigo.

I think there is always a presumption of suckage with internal polls until there is some confirmation of some element of it. There is zero quality control and they could be swinging for the fences to bring in money and attention. For confirmation, I'd look for a neutral poll showing Obama's rating in the toilet in this district, or Halvorson's rating in the toilet, or Halvorson tied with Kinzinger, or some other reason Halvorson should be doing so badly against an unknown generic R other than that she's a Democrat, which isn't enough in this district.

Of course if the internal poll showed him losing narrowly and with 31% of the vote, that would be an indicator that the numbers for himself are bad. There's still the potential he's doing well, but that's it.

[Brittain33]

Wasn't he the one who was raising a ton of money a few months ago?

http://www.pantagraph.com/news/state-and-regional/illinois/article_86c57c88-9047-11df-b7dd-001cc4c002e0.html

He raised $325,000 last quarter, she raised $300,000, but she's got $840,000 more than he does. He's in the game but I wouldn't call that big money.