A new statewide poll by a Virginia-based Republican polling firm gives Sen. John McCain a 20-point lead over possible primary challenger J.D. Hayworth.
The Dec. 8-10 Tarrance Group poll of 600 likely Arizona Republican primary voters paints a better picture for the four-term incumbent McCain than a Rasmussen Reports survey released Nov. 20.
That poll had the potential race a dead heat.
The Tarrance Group poll, conducted for a group called the Foundation for a Secure and Prosperous America, which has ties to McCain supporters, had McCain leading Hayworth, 56 percent to 36 percent. After unfavorable details about Hayworth's 1995-2007 tenure in Congress were disclosed, McCain's lead grew to 62 percent to 29 percent.
The Tarrance Group's margin of error was plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
"McCain is push polling? Hmmmmmm.... I wonder why?" Hayworth, now a KFYI radio talk-show host, tweeted on Thursday as word spread about the poll.
Ed Goeas, the GOP pollster and strategist who worked on the Tarrance poll, acknowledged that respondents were asked about negative information about Hayworth but emphatically denied that it was "a push poll," a term that usually applies to smear campaigns disguised as legitimate polls. Goeas also said the poll is not connected to McCain or his re-election.
The "informational questions" didn't matter much in the end, Goeas said, given that McCain was up by 20 points on the first ballot.
One of the "informational questions" said Hayworth "never returned any campaign contributions that he received from Jack Abramoff, a convicted felon" but did not reveal that Hayworth eventually gave the money to charity. Hayworth was never charged.
http://www.azcentral.com/12news/news/articles/2009/12/15/20091215mccain1215-CP.html
