Iron County, MO

[Husker]

This county seems to be bucking the trend of a lot of other places in the upper South region of the U.S. Like many other upper southern counties, it swung republican a little in '96 and strongy republican in '00. However, the swing to Bush in 2004 was negligible and in 2008 it swung to Obama (a shift of around 9 points). Granted, this was just outside the area where counties were shifting to McCain but the demographics of this Missouri county are like most other in this region: relatively poor, low rate of high school graduates, heavily southern baptist, and 95% white.

Any theories or substantiated evidence as to why this county has bucked the trend of so many other counties in the "White South"?

[Alcon]

Not much to go on here, but the Wikipedia politics section is unusually impressive:

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[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The state has been trending republican since 2000, when Talent came very close to defeating Bob Holden, and Bob Holden lost in 2004.

The county more or less is like areas is like  some democratic areas of West Virginia.  This county voted for McCaskill over Talent in 2006 and usually bucks the state trend and goes with the national trend. My guess is that since Obama was winning , nationally, then it went to Obama.

[Hash]

I suppose a name like 'Iron County' entails some old mining activity, so that would explain the Democratic lean.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Iron County is in the Lead Belt region of Missouri where the lead and iron mining industry and unions still plays a pivotal role. The county is, like most counties in Southeast Missouri, overwhelmingly Democratic at the local level with Democrats controlling every elected office in Iron County but one. At the state level, it is represented by a Democrat in the Missouri House of Representatives (J.C. Kluesner) and although it is represented by a Republican in the Missouri Senate, his margins of victories are always close in Iron County. The county also went handily for Jay Nixon and most if not all other statewide officials that year. Claire McCaskill carried the county in her 2006 Senatorial bid, as did Susan Montee in the State Auditor's race. At the federal level, although it is a part of Missouri's 8th Congressional District, the county often gives Jo Ann Emerson her lowest margins of victory.

One wouldn't think this county would be so Democratic. Its neighbor to the north, Washington County, is also an anomaly as well. Obama won the county by just five votes in 2008 and its demographics are similar to Iron County, which is predominantly white, impoverished and overwhelmingly Southern Baptist. But voters in the Lead Belt region normally do not vote with their Bibles. They are more concerned about their economic security and jobs as opposed to preserving the "sanctity" of life and marriage.

Both Iron and Washington counties also gave Hillary Clinton over 70 percent of the vote in the Missouri Democratic Primary as well.

There was an article written by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch after the election entitled "The Splash of Blue in Missouri," which did an excellent analysis of why Iron County voted for Obama. I think a lot of it just had to do with dissatisfaction with John McCain (Mike Huckabee won Iron County in the Missouri GOP Primary) and Sarah Palin (perhaps a lot of the Hillary voters there saw this as an insult?). However, that being said, I don't want to contradict myself. Like I said, most counties in Southeast Missouri are predominantly Democratic at the local level. But when you look at the counties in the Bootheel (Dunklin, Pemiscot, New Madrid, Mississippi) which are anywhere from 10-25% African American, these counties swung even more Republican in 2008, which I'm sure racism was the reason, but the demographics are similar to Iron County minus the heavy concentration of African Americans, so apparently there's something else different about Iron County that sets it apart from Southeast Missouri.

[DennisB]

Being a resident of Iron county, I can tell you that it is more progressive then some of its neighbors. Unemployment is high and industry is virtually nonexistent (most people are retired or work in a different area of the state), but it has strong ties culturally and economically to St. Louis. This I believe is why it tends to "buck the trend". Economically: most people in this county work in St.Louis, or the tourist industry (it really is beautiful country here, and has several state parks) which tends to cater to the predominantly St. Louis crowd. Culturally: All but a few television and radio stations (we get) are based in St.Louis, so news tends to be focused on what is important there. Being so tied to St. Louis has caused the citizens of this county to basically adopt a similar political viewpoint. Believing that what is good for St.Louis is good for Iron county.

[minionofmidas]

Welcome to the Forum!

A fortuitous* cross of the wider area's (a corridor from St Louis down to the state border. Shows up on most maps of the state. I think that may be the historical mining belt here) Democratic traditions and modern metropolitan influence, then... although for now the metro is merely close enough to keep people from moving away, not yet getting them to move in and fill the county with brandnew subdivisions (in which case the Democraticness might soon be over)?

* I wrote a footnote here since it's obviously not fortuitu... damn, now I'm not sure anymore if I spelt it right... if you prefer your map all-Republican.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Being a resident of Iron county, I can tell you that it is more progressive then some of its neighbors. Unemployment is high and industry is virtually nonexistent (most people are retired or work in a different area of the state), but it has strong ties culturally and economically to St. Louis. This I believe is why it tends to "buck the trend". Economically: most people in this county work in St.Louis, or the tourist industry (it really is beautiful country here, and has several state parks) which tends to cater to the predominantly St. Louis crowd. Culturally: All but a few television and radio stations (we get) are based in St.Louis, so news tends to be focused on what is important there. Being so tied to St. Louis has caused the citizens of this county to basically adopt a similar political viewpoint. Believing that what is good for St.Louis is good for Iron county.

Welcome to the forum, neighbor. I'm about two counties over from you

I agree somewhat about the proximity to St. Louis, but if that were true, then the county would have voted for Obama in the primary (or less so for Hillary) seeing as how he won St. Louis by strong margins but instead voters in Iron County gave Hillary over 70 percent of the vote. Also, if that were true, then neighboring St. Francois County (Farmington) would have voted for Obama too, right, but it went very narrowly to McCain.

I still think, being situated in the Lead Belt, that it's more so a combination of old blue-collar Reagan Democrats who belong to labor unions in the mining industry. You brought up a good point about the tourism. I've been through Iron County and it is beautiful and there are lots of state parks here, including Elephant Rocks State Park (went there in fourth grade on a field trip). I'm sure that most of the people employed either work in the mines or the parks, which could probably explain the tilt to the Democrats.

However, it is interesting to me how different the county is when compared to many other rural counties throughout Missouri that share its demographics of being heavily white, poor, and predominantly Southern Baptist with less-educated voters and high unemployment. I've been through Iron County (Arcadia, Ironton and Pilot Knob mostly) and I never saw any pro-life yard signs or bulletin boards or any messages on church signs warning against "the gay." I wouldn't say that the county is really "progressive" in terms of being socially liberal in that voters still overwhelmingly rejected same-sex marriage in 2004, but I do think that people in Iron County are genuinely more concerned about their jobs and economic security and vote with their checkbooks as opposed to being worried about the killing of babies and the homosexual agenda and the government coming to take their guns and that's probably why the county is so Democratic.

[minionofmidas]

I've been through Iron County (Arcadia, Ironton and Pilot Knob mostly) and I never saw any pro-life yard signs or bulletin boards or any messages on church signs warning against "the gay." I wouldn't say that the county is really "progressive" in terms of being socially liberal in that voters still overwhelmingly rejected same-sex marriage in 2004, but I do think that people in Iron County are genuinely more concerned about their jobs and economic security and vote with their checkbooks as opposed to being worried about the killing of babies and the homosexual agenda and the government coming to take their guns.

And why is that so?
St Louis cultural influence sounds not a bad explanation...

[jbtornado]

Wonderful to see this discussion:

I actually spent a week last month in New Haven Missouri which is not far from this area at all and I find the entire state of Missouri really fascinating as it is so diverse and different from Southern and Southeast Missouri to Northern...

My take is that the entire St.Louis area is going to grow more liberal with time.. This even includes the rural counties outlying it.. Many there are very concerned about taking care of there own, seeing how St.Louis has had issues with losing industry, crime, urban decline and other issues for quite some time.

Springfield and Branson are going to be the exact opposite.. Just adjacent to them is NW Arkansas which is growing extremely fast and doing quite well.. Springfield and SW Missouri are doing the same.. As one can already tell, Arkansas votes conservative especially for national offices, but likes voting more democrat locally.. I would guess this trend continues for SW Missouri

Kansas City has always seemed to be more conservative for a metro area due to its nature.. It obviously still has a very liberal core like most major cities.. For example, Kansas City seems to  have alot more issues in getting something done like mass transportation,  while St. Louis has voted in new transit issues and seems to be alot easier to put in more progressive projects. Due to Kansas City's proximiy to Kansas which is very conservative, I think it will always have a more conservative pull.. But this can vary and Jackson county Missouri is still a major grab for Missouri for democratic votes!!

Northwest Missouri has declined for a long time.. Its very difficult for me to get a read of... I know the rural NW Missouri counties kind of have that Kansas and Nebraska attitude... But yet St. Joseph with its struggles for quite a long time has really trended democratic..

Northeast Missouri seems to have that more Illinois feel.. I think its proximity to SE Iowa and areas of Illinois almost give it more of a liberal feel like you have in Illinois and Iowa...


And Columbia's area is interesting yet again to me because while yes, a college town is very liberal, the areas that seem to be growing around it are probably conservative.. So its hard to  really get a feel for this too!

Southeast Missouri I guess has more similarities to Kentucky and Tenneesee.. So obviously they will vote more Republican.. But that area is projected to lose population over time too and has struggled for quite a while..

If someone can ever capture the true identity of Missouri on anything, please tell me! I literallly see blends of so many states there its really amazing.. I cant say I see this in other states nearly as much and its more amazing its happening in a state in the middle of the country..

[HAnnA MArin County]

I'm glad you find our state so fascinating. I'll try to give my own personal analysis of my state but if any other Missourians on here feel like repudiating or adding to my own explanations, feel free to do so.

Missouri is still a bellwether despite narrowly voting for John McCain in 2008 by less than 4,000 votes. We are, like the nation, a center-right state. At the presidential level, elections are historically always close. We are pretty much a 50-50 state. While Republicans control the state legislature, Democrats hold the Governor's Mansion and all other statewide offices except one (Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder).

Demographically speaking, we are not ideally a microcosm for the nation. According to 2008 U.S. Census estimates, the racial breakdown of our state (compared to the nation at large) is - 83.90 (74.35)% White/Caucasian; 3.06 (15.08)% Hispanic/Latino; 11.16 (12.33)% Black/African American; 0.99 (5.82)% Some Other Race; 1.44 (4.37)% Asian; 2.03 (2.18)% Two or More Races; 0.39 (0.80)% Native American; 0.08 (0.15) Pacific Islander.

Socioeconomically, we are one of the poorer states in the country. According to 2008 U.S. Census estimates, the median household income in Missouri is $46,408 (37); median family income is $57,593 (36); per capita income is $24,760 (35).

In terms of religion, most of the state is included within the Bible Belt. According to the 2000 survey, Missouri is a plurality evangelical Protestant state, mostly Southern Baptist.

Now, politically, I think you did a pretty good job at dividing the state into its respective geo-stratum zones but I'll agree to disagree with some of your assessment of the political cultures in each region. Here goes.

I'll start with Southeast Missouri because I live here. Now at the local level, Southeast Missouri is pretty Democratic - Democrats control a majority of local/county offices here. The Bootheel is heavily Democratic and contains some of the blackest counties in the state and is also some of the poorest counties in the state as well. The Lead Belt is another stronghold for Democrats in Southeast Missouri. This area, stretching from north around Potosi and Farmington and going down as far south as Ellington, as the name suggests, contains a core constituency of unionized lead mining. There are also several state parks in this area as well, particularly in Iron County, so I'd hypothesize that tourism plays a slightly minor role as to why this area is so Democratic. Ironically, the largest city in Southeast Missouri, Cape Girardeau, in the county that shares its name, is fairly conservative. Cape Girardeau County is one of the staunchest Republican counties in Missouri and is notoriously the home of conservative radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh. Cape Girardeau County is the most affluent county in Southeast Missouri with smaller enclaves outside of the city including Jackson and Gordonville that have median household and family incomes above the state numbers. Southeast Missouri State University is located in Cape Girardeau, but as a graduate of this university, I can say that most of the students at this university are not too politically active: both the College Republicans and College Democrats are pretty much nonexistent. Southeast Missouri, or this part of Missouri, is very similar to Northeast Arkansas in that it is much more Democratic than the western parts of the states.

Which brings me to Southwest Missouri. This is the most conservative part of the state, not surprising seeing as how it neighbors Kansas, Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas, all of which are Republican strongholds in of themselves. Republicans control a supermajority and almost all local/county offices in this area. There are only two Democrats from Southwest Missouri in the state House, both of whom represent the city of Springfield, which is the most Democratic part of Southwest Missouri due to the presence of Missouri State University (formerly Southwest Missouri State University) but is still very Republican. Social conservatism probably explains why this area is so Republican. Evangelical Protestantism is the majority religion in many if not all of the counties. It also contains the popular tourist destination of Branson but this city is becoming mostly a retirement village for older people and seeks to promote "family fun." The counties along the Missouri-Kansas border in this area, in particular Jasper, Newton (contains the extremely conservative city of Joplin) and Barton counties, are among the most conservative in the state. Even the popular Secretary of State Robin Carnahan could not crack 40 percent in these counties, despite winning all but ten counties in the state in her 2008 reelection bid.
 
I'm not too familiar with the northern parts of the state, but I won't argue too much with your points made about them. However, at the presidential level, Northern Missouri is more Democratic than Southern Missouri. Consider the following presidential results by congressional districts as evidence of this:
*MO-06 (Northwest Missouri): McCain 53.58, Obama 44.67 = R+ 8.91 (CPVI R+7)
*MO-09 (Northeast Missouri): McCain 54.77, Obama 43.66 = R+ 11.11 (CPVI R+9)
*MO-08 (Southeast Missouri): McCain 61.92, Obama 36.42 = R+ 25.50 (CPVI R+15)
*MO-07 (Southwest Missouri): McCain 63.07, Obama 35.39 = R+27.68 (CPVI R+17)

This could be the fact that Northwest Missouri/MO-06 is anchored in the Kansas City Metro Area and contains many of its suburbs, including St. Joseph/Buchanan County which Obama narrowly won. It also contains Maryville, a college town in Nodaway County that contains Northwest Missouri State University. Northeast Missouri is anchored in Boone County which contains Columbia and is, as you pointed out, pretty liberal because of the University of Missouri (Mizzou). There's also another college in Northeast Missouri, Truman State University (a predominantly female college), in Kirksville/Adair County. As for the rural counties, I'd figure they would be, like you said, pretty identical to Iowa more so than Illinois.

Then you have the Democratic strongholds in Missouri: the cities of St. Louis and Kansas City. The cities themselves do not need much explanation; the rural/urban divide is alive and well in Missouri. However, the suburbs is another story. The St. Louis suburbs are trending Democratic - St. Louis County contains many of them. They are typical of your suburban culture anywhere else: predominantly white, affluent, highly educated and more urban in nature. The Wikipedia page on St. Louis County gives a pretty accurate description of the breakdowns of this county by region (West County, North County and South County). Jefferson County south of St. Louis City is also fairly Democratic as well. I'd still classify this as a suburban county more so than an exurban county. The county below it, Ste. Genevieve County, was one of four counties that voted for John Kerry in 2004. It contains the oldest settlement in Missouri (Ste. Genevieve) and is named after the patroness of France, so I'd imagine that the county is rich in French heritage, which may explain why it's so Democratic. Moving back north, St. Charles County (the wealthiest county in Missouri) is a part of the St. Louis Metro Area but is generally a Republican stronghold. It is still pretty suburban in nature, although some argue that it's more exurban. The Kansas City suburbs do tend to be a little more conservative, and I'm not too entirely sure of why this is. Maybe it's because they're more closely identified with Kansas as opposed to the St. Louis suburbanites who are more closely identified with Illinois. Kansas City itself is what makes Jackson County so blue; the city voted strongly for Obama in both the primary and the general - McCain narrowly won the county outside of the city.

In conclusion, as I mentioned above, Missouri is just typical of the rural-urban divide in that it has its blue "coasts" of Kansas City and St. Louis and it's red "Middle America" of the rural areas throughout. In many of the rural areas throughout Missouri, agriculture and farming plays a pivotal role in the economy and daily lives of the people who live there. Religion is obviously important to many of the people who live in the rural areas as well, so it's not unlikely for them to be influenced by or hold strong feelings about cultural issues. Hunting, fishing and camping are also all but ways of life in the rural areas, too.

I hope this analysis has helped you somewhat understand our state more.  

[Derek]

Missouri has been trending GOP since 1988. Look up the margins of victory and compare it to the national average. Bush Sr. won a somewhat close race there even though he won the election in a landslide. Clinton won it by more than he did nationally in 1992, but in 1996 Bob Dole was within a few points. MO was outside of the amount Bush won by in 2000 and in 2004 it wasn't even close in Bush's favor. The last election when McCain lost by a moderate margin, it still voted Republican. It's no longer purple, but a Republican battleground state. I don't expect it to be close in 2012.