Atlas Election 2012: ELECTION DAY

[Joe Republic]

 

E L E C T I O N
2 0 1 2

Welcome to the official campaign thread for the Atlas presidential election of 2012!

This thread will begin with instructions on how the game is played, and will follow with numerous stages building up to Election Day.

Here are the candidates who successfully made it through the primary season to become their respective party's presumptive nominee:

                   

Table of Contents:

1. Overview
2. The election map
3. Earning credits
4. Spending credits
5. Running mates
6. Special Events
7. Campaign schedule
8. Modifying factors
9. Issuing instructions

[Joe Republic]

 

OVERVIEW

As in real life, the objective of a successful presidential campaign is to win a majority of votes in the electoral college.

As you can see, I've decided that this election is set in 2012.  This is mainly to establish some kind of frame of reference, particularly if this becomes a series of games.  Disregard the fact that real-life politicians will be seeking office in that year; this game is set in an alternative reality where those real-life politicians don't exist.

There is, of course, the possibility of a tie in the electoral college at the end of the game.  Should this happen, the winner will be determined by the winner of the most endorsements received from other forum members.


TIME AND MONEY

The game will be divided up into stages, each of which represents a week of campaigning or a specific event.  The first stage will represent the first week of March 2012, at roughly the point where the primary season has wrapped up.  Occasionally these 'weekly' stages will be interspersed with special events, such as the party conventions and the debates.

Each of these campaign stages will be divided into 5 time slots, which may be filled by various types of campaign activity.  It's important to note that time cannot be carried into the next week (just in real life ), so I'd recommend you use all of the time you have available.

The nominees will already be familiar with the currency of 'credits' that we used during the primaries.  This system continues here, although the methods or earning and spending them have changed to reflect the different dynamics of this race.

[Joe Republic]

 

THE MAP

The progress of the election will be measured using the following map, which will be reproduced and updated at the start of each stage.

RATING: Margin: EVs:

STRONG D >10% 150

LEAN D 5-10% 43

SLIGHT D 2-5% 50

TOSSUP <2% 55

SLIGHT R 2-5% 51

LEAN R 5-10% 40

STRONG R >10% 149

XIAO 243

TOSSUP 55

HUDSON 240

As you can see, despite this being the 2012 election, the electoral college portrayed in this map is that used in 2004 and 2008.  The reason is simple: the 2012 map doesn't officially exist yet.

Also, in this game there are no special circumstances for Nebraska and Maine.  Their electoral votes will be apportioned on a winner-take-all basis, as with the other states.

I have tried to balance the strength of both parties as much as possible, but of course it's impossible to get it perfectly level while maintaining some semblance of realism.

The rating of the states as 'strong', 'lean', 'slight' or 'tossup' is dependant on that state's expected percentage margin of victory.  The margins will of course be affected by the candidates' campaign activity.

The specific margins for each state will not be published to the forum at large.  The only way of determining the exact margin is by commissioning a poll; a process that will be explained later.  The overall national margin will be published at the start of each stage, mainly as a guide to the state of the race.

Campaign activity will more often than not tap into the 'undecided' support base, which of course can go either way.  Another minor factor is the 'Other candidates' group.  These are non-playable characters designed mainly to preserve some realism.  At the end of the election, the remaining undecided voters will be divided randomly between the two main candidates and the 'Others'.

Finally, each state is capped so that neither candidate can achieve more than 80% of the vote in any state.  The District of Columbia is an exception to this rule, where the cap is set at 95%.

[Joe Republic]

 

EARNING CREDITS

There are five ways to earn credits:

• Fundraising
• Receiving endorsements from forum members
  
• Leftover credits from the primary race
• Federal funding
• Retiring spin operatives

Any credits earned during a stage will be added to the candidate's balance at the start of the next stage, not before.



FUNDRAISING

Campaign time may be spent on raising additional credits instead of trying to shift popular support.

Each state will have a credit 'value' exactly equal to its number of electoral votes.  Candidates can then choose to raise funds in certain states, where they will receive 1-5 credits (decided randomly).  If a candidate decides to receive federal funding (see below), they cannot receive more than 3 credits each time.  The state's credit value will then be reduced by that number.

There is no limit to the number of fundraisers you can hold in a single state each stage.  However, once a state's funds have been depleted, no more fundraising can be conducted there for the rest of the game.

I'll post an updated map showing the credit values of each state at the start of each stage.


ENDORSEMENTS FROM FORUM MEMBERS

This is another concept carried on from the primaries.  Forum members who have obtained at least 50 posts may cast their vote here in this thread for whichever candidate they'd like to win.

It doesn't matter if a forum member already issued an endorsement during the primaries; they may do so again here.

Each endorsement adds 5 credits to that candidate's balance.  However, if the candidate has opted to receive federal funding (see below), each endorsement will instead be worth 3 credits.

Endorsements issued by the former players of the primaries are doubled.

No endorsements may be split between the two candidates.

I reserve the right to cancel the endorsements of any posters I consider to be suspicious or fraudulent, and my judgement on such cases will be final.


LEFTOVER CREDITS FROM THE PRIMARIES

Both candidates accumulated sizeable credit balances during the primaries.  These have been carried over in full to their general election campaign accounts.

For the record, Xander Xiao had a balance of 186 credits, and Helen Hudson had a balance of 235 credits.

Democratic runner-up Franlin Finch also had a balance of 120 credits.  These will be transferred to whichever candidate he endorses.  If he hasn't endorsed either candidate by the time of the Democratic Convention, his credits will be canceled.


FEDERAL FUNDING

Similar to real life, both candidates may choose to receive FEC funding.

Following each party convention, the nominee will receive 100 credits.

However, by choosing to receive this bonus, throughout the game the amount of credits they receive by fundraising (see above) is limited to 3 per state instead of 5, and the value of endorsements from forum members is reduced from 5 to 3.

The candidates will need to notify me before we begin the game if they would like to receive federal funding or not.  Once their decision has been made, it cannot be changed.


RETIRING SPIN OPERATIVES

The purpose of spin operatives will be explained in a later chapter, but for now, all you need to know is that while they are hired for 5 credits each, they can be retired for a refund of 3 credits each.

[Joe Republic]

 

SPENDING CREDITS

There are plenty of ways to spend your hard-earned credits in order to try and swing the election your way:

• State Visits
• Positive Ads
• Negative Ads
• Barnstorming
• Spin operatives
• Polls
• Neutralizing wildcards

STATE VISITS

Your candidate may spend time and credits campaigning in a particular state in order to swing its electoral votes into your column.

Each visit randomly generates a number between 1 and 5.  The percentage margin in that state will then swing to your candidate at an equivalent level.  So for example, let's say your candidate pays two visits to Ohio.  Those visits randomly produce the numbers 3 and 4, which means that the margin in Ohio would swing to your candidate by a total of 7 percentage points.

Each state visit will occupy one of the five available time slots in each stage, and you may not visit the same state more than three times per stage.

The cost in credits of visiting a state varies depending on its population.  The table below details how much each state will cost:

CREDIT COST		STATE
1		Alaska; Delaware; District of Columbia; Hawaii; Idaho; Maine; Montana; New Hampshire; North Dakota; Rhode Island; South Dakota; Vermont; Wyoming
2		Arkansas; Kansas; Mississippi; Nebraska; Nevada; New Mexico; Utah; West Virginia
3		Connecticut; Iowa; Kentucky; Oklahoma; Oregon; South Carolina
4		Alabama; Arizona; Colorado; Louisiana; Maryland; Minnesota; Wisconsin
5		Indiana; Massachusetts; Missouri; Tennessee; Washington
6		Georgia; Michigan; New Jersey; North Carolina; Virginia
7		Florida; Illinois; Ohio; Pennsylvania
8		New York
9		Texas
10		California

Here's the same table demonstrated as a map:

POSITIVE ADS

You may produce campaign ads in each state promoting your candidate.  Each ad costs one credit, and does not occupy any time slots.  The ad will swing the state's margin to you by one percentage point.  You may only broadcast one positive ad in each state per stage, but you can broadcast them in as many states as you like.

You don't actually have to design and create an ad yourself, but you can if you want.


NEGATIVE ADS

You may also produce ads in each state attacking your opponent.  These cost 2 credits each, and also do not occupy any time slots.

An attack ad will reduce your opponent's support by 3 percentage points, but also your own support by 1 point.  Those votes will be moved back into the 'undecided' column.

(You may wonder what the point of an attack ad is if your own support is weakened as well.  It's important to note that it is far easier to shift support to your campaign from undecided voters than from your opponent's campaign, and thus attack ads will make it easier to eventually swing support back to you.)

Just like positive ads, you may only broadcast one negative ad in each state per turn, but you may broadcast them in as many states as you like.


BARNSTORMING

You can send your candidate on a week-long whistle-stop tour of the country, coordinated with a strategic ad campaign.  Barnstorming occupies all five available time slots per stage, and costs 40 credits.

A random number between 1-5 will be generated, and the national percentage margin will subsequently shift in your favor by that same number.  This shift will be reflected in every state as well.

The effect of barnstorming is not reduced by spin operatives, your opponent's home state advantage, the 'safety' of a state, or most other factors.  This makes it a fearsome weapon in your campaign arsenal, and worthy of the high price tag.


SPIN OPERATIVES

In order to counter the effects of your opponent's activities in states you wish to preserve your strength in, you may hire spin operatives.

Much like campaign visits themselves, each operative generates a number between 1-5.  This total is then deducted from the total produced by your opponent's campaign visits.  If your total exceeds your opponent's, there will be no overall effect on the margin whatsoever; i.e. the campaign visits and spin operatives will have neutralized each other.

Alternatively, any 'unoccupied' spin operatives, i.e. those not being used to defend against campaign visits, can also be used to halve the damage to your candidate caused by negative ads.

Spin operatives cost 5 credits to hire, and may be 'retired' for a refund of 3 credits.  Each operative also costs an additional 1 credit per stage.  You are limited to two spin operatives per state at any time.

Each spin operative you hire will remain in the state you choose to place them in until the end of the campaign or if you retire them.

Presidential candidates will automatically receive two free spin operatives in their home states, and running mates will receive one free operative in their home states.  These may be retired as normal to gain 3 credits each.

A map showing the number and location of spin operatives will be updated at the start of each stage.


POLLS

As mentioned earlier, the specific percentage margin in each state will not be displayed on the forum until Election Day.  Instead, you may commission a poll of that state for 1 credit.  I will then send you the current status of the race in that state in a personal message.

You may choose to share that information with your opponent if you wish, although whether that would be in your interest is up to you.


NEUTRALIZING WILDCARDS

Every so often, the candidates will on an alternating basis receive a 'wildcard'; a random event in the news that will produce an effect that either damages or helps your candidate.  There is a 50% chance that the wildcard will be beneficial to your campaign, and a 50% chance it will be harmful.

Before you get to know what the wildcard will be, you have the chance to cancel any effects (either good or bad) by paying 3 credits.

See the campaign schedule to see when your campaign is due to receive a wildcard.


SUMMARY

This table should help to summarize the different types of campaign activity that may be conducted, along with their expense and effect.

ACTIVITY		CREDIT COST		TIME SLOTS USED		EFFECTS
State Visit		1-10 (Varies by state population)		1		1-5% statewide swing
Positive Ad		1		0		1% statewide swing
Negative Ad		2		0		Reduces opponent's statewide support by 3%; own support by 1%; undecided support increases.
Barnstorming		40		5		1-5% national swing
Spin operatives		5 (another 1 per stage)		N/A		Mitigates effect of opponent's state visits; halves damage inflicted by negative ads.
Polls		1		0		Provides breakdown of support in a particular state.

[Joe Republic]

 

RUNNING MATES

The presidential candidates will be able to select a fellow forum member to play as their running mate.  I will soon set up a thread in which forum members can sign up and adopt a given character.  The presidential nominees will then have the duration of several stages to screen and select their running mate through any process they wish.  The only condition is that the eventual choice must be a member of the same party as the presidential candidate.  (The actual player does not need to be. )

The selection of both running mates will then be officially announced between Weeks 1 and 2 of July, and they will then be able to join the game and conduct campaign activities.  They will also participate in the vice presidential debate.

The presidential nominees do not necessarily have to keep their selections a secret before the official announcements.  However, bear in mind that real-life presidential campaigns often like to keep us all in suspense until the very last minute.

As part of the running mate announcement stage, both tickets will be granted a free barnstorming activity for both members of the ticket and a dual campaign visit to the running mate's home state.  Furthermore, if the running mate is a former primary opponent, the ticket will receive a bonus in this stage equal to their share of the delegates during the primary campaign.  So, for example, if the running mate had attained 17% of the delegates during the primaries, the ticket will subsequently receive a 17% bonus to the effect of their barnstorming during this stage.

Running mates are able to perform any of the available campaign activities.  However, the strength of their effect is reduced by half.  Exceptions to this are spin operatives, which apply to the ticket as a whole, and fundraising, which can still be conducted at normal strength.

The degree of autonomy that the running mates are permitted is for the ticket itself to determine.  I would prefer to receive instructions for the running mate's activities from that particular player, but I will still accept the instructions from the presidential nominee.

If the running mate is replaced for any reason after the official announcement, but before the party convention, then the opposing ticket will be granted one free barnstorming activity.  If it occurs after the convention, the opposing ticket will receive two free barnstorming activities.

[Joe Republic]

 

SPECIAL EVENTS

There are three special events on the campaign schedule:

• Party conventions
• The debates
• Election Day

PARTY CONVENTIONS

Since this is the first election game of this nature, and thus there is no incumbent party, it was determined by a coin toss that the Republican National Convention (RNC) would be first, taking place between Weeks 3 and 4 of July, followed by the Democratic National Convention (DNC) between Weeks 3 and 4 of August.

Both primary campaigns before this campaign produced two winners who both achieved a majority of their respective convention delegates, and thus we will not have to simulate a brokered convention this time.

This stage will be fairly straightforward.  There are two opportunities for a 'convention bump' for both tickets.  The first is a free chance to swing the national margin in an identical manner to a barnstorming activity.  The second is a chance to swing the margin in the state in which the convention is held, identically to a regular state visit.  (Thus, I'll need to know ASAP in which city the candidates want their conventions to be held.)

In both cases, the 'bump' will be affected by one potentially important factor.  A delegate tally will be held, in which all primary runners-up will have a final opportunity to endorse the nominee.  Those who do not endorse the nominee will reduce the effects of both 'bumps' by a percentage equal to their share of the delegates.  So, for example, a candidate who attained 24% of the delegates and who does not endorse the eventual nominee will reduce the convention bump by 24%.


THE DEBATES

Rather than conduct actual debates between the candidates, I've instead settled for an alternative activity that remains consistent with this game's focus on chance and strategy rather than creativity and subjective judgements.

As in real life in recent years, there will be three presidential debates and one vice presidential debate.  In all four cases, they will be conducted as follows:

As the debate stage begins, the candidate places a wager of any amount of credits they choose.  If they win, they will double their own wager and receive their opponent's wager.  If there is a tie, both candidates will have their wagers refunded.  Each candidate has a 33% chance of winning, losing or drawing.  Therefore, they have a 67% chance of at least winning back their wager.  The verdict of the debate will, as always, be determined by pure chance.

The candidates are free to conduct their own actual debate for fun if they wish, but it won't have any effect on the race.


ELECTION DAY

The final day of the campaign, and the most important of course, will take place on November 5th after four days of final campaigning activities.

No campaigning will be conducted in this stage, as it will be devoted entirely to the calculation and announcement of the results.

I will aim for it to take place on a Tuesday if possible, but I'm willing to change this if the players need it.  I will also conduct the results in real time as closely as possible.

[Joe Republic]

 

CAMPAIGN SCHEDULE

As previously mentioned, the campaign is divided into stages each representing a single week, or a special event.  The last four campaign stages are an exception, as they each represent a single day.

Each campaign stage is divided into 5 time slots, which will be filled by various campaign activities.

The schedule is detailed below:

MARCH	Week 1
	Week 2
	Week 3
	Week 4
APRIL	Week 1 *
	Week 2 *
	Week 3 *
	Week 4 *
MAY	Week 1 *
	Week 2 *
	Week 3 *
	Week 4 *
JUNE	Week 1 *
	Week 2 *
	Week 3 *
	Week 4 *
JULY	Week 1 *
	RUNNING MATE SELECTION ANNOUNCEMENTS
	Week 2 *
	Week 3 *
	REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION -- Detroit, MI
	Week 4 *
AUGUST	Week 1 *
	Week 2 *
	Week 3 *
	DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION -- Cleveland, OH
	Week 4 *
SEPTEMBER	Week 1 *
	Week 2 *
	Week 3 *
	1ST PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE
	Week 4 *
	VICE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE
OCTOBER	Week 1 *
	2ND PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE
	Week 2 *
	3RD PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE
	Week 3 *
	Week 4 *
NOVEMBER	Day 1
	Day 2
	Day 3
	Day 4
	ELECTION DAY

*  Democratic wildcard
*  Republican wildcard

[Joe Republic]

 

MODIFYING FACTORS

There are a number of factors that will affect the power of your candidate's state visits and campaign ads, either for better or worse:

• Home state advantages
• Political safety of states
• 'Decided' voters
• Weakness of running mates

HOME STATE ADVANTAGES

Various campaign activities in certain states may have a bonus added to it, depending on the state's proximity to the candidate's home state.

The following map displays the percentage bonus that Xander Xiao of California and Helen Hudson of Arkansas will receive for state visits, positive and negative ads, and spin operatives.  The bonus will simply be added to whatever effect those campaign activities produce in the relevant state.

Note: the seemingly unfair advantage to Hudson is due to the unfortunate fact that the South has historically had an intra-regional bias, moreso than any other political region.

Barnstorming and fundraising are not affected by home state advantages.


POLITICAL SAFETY OF STATES

At the start of each stage, the predicted election map will be updated to reflect the expected vote margins of the states.  States that have 'strong' or 'lean' leads for one candidate will effect a reduction in their opponent's efforts to swing the state towards them.

In states that have a 'strong' lead for their opponent, the effect of candidate's campaign visits, ads and spin operatives is reduced by 50%.

In states that 'lean' towards their opponent, the effect of candidate's campaign visits, ads and spin operatives is reduced by 25%.

There is no such reduction in the 'tossup' states or those where an opponent has a 'slight' lead.

Barnstorming and fundraising are not affected by any leads one way or another in any state.


'DECIDED' VOTERS

Following a campaign visit or a positive ad, I'll put the swing towards your candidate (if any) into effect by transferring support from the 'undecided' column to yours.

However, once the undecided support has reached a minimum of 1% of the state's electorate, I will then continue transferring support from the 'Other' candidates at a two-thirds rate.

Once the Other candidates have also reached a minimum of 1% of the state's electorate, I will then continue transferring support from your major party opponent at a one-third rate.

Therefore, the effect of your campaigning is reduced if there are not enough undecided voters, and reduced further if there is not enough support for Other candidates.  Remember, you can use negative ads to increase the number of undecided voters.


WEAKNESS OF RUNNING MATES

To reiterate, the overall effect of any activity by the running mates (except fundraising) is further reduced by 50%.

[Joe Republic]

 

ISSUING CAMPAIGN INSTRUCTIONS

The first thing to take on board when issuing instructions is to send them in a personal message to me.  DO NOT post them in this thread.  The only reason for this is to expedite the game a little, and not have the two tickets engage in post-editing wars once both sets of instructions have been posted.

The following are a few examples of how you should submit your instructions.  Note that the activities that occupy time slots (i.e. state visits, fundraising and barnstorming) do not exceed the limit of five per stage.


EXAMPLE 1

"State Visit to Kentucky and Illinois.
One fundraiser in Texas, and two in New York.
Positive ads in Texas, Minnesota, Florida and California.
Negative ads in the same states plus New York and North Carolina."

(The five time slots have been filled by the two state visits and three fundraisers.  The state visits will cost 3 credits for Kentucky and 7 for Illinois, so 10 credits in total.  The fundraisers produce 2 credits from Texas, and 5 and 1 from New York.  The four positive ads (1 credit each) will cost 4 credits in total, and the six negative ads (2 credits each) will cost 12 credits in total.)


EXAMPLE 2

"I'd like a poll of Ohio."

[Response sent: "46 D; 45 R; 2 Oth; 7 Und."]

"Three state visits to Ohio, one in Pennsylvania.
One fundraiser in Arizona.
Hire one more spin operatives in Ohio, and two for Missouri.
Positive ad in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Iowa."

(The five time slots have been filled by the four state visits and one fundraiser.  The state visits will cost 21 credits for Ohio (7 credits each) and 7 for Pennsylvania, so 28 credits in total.  The fundraiser produces 4 credits from Arizona.  The spin operatives will cost 5 credits each, so 15 in total.  The three positive ads will cost 3 credits in total.)


EXAMPLE 2

"Let's go barnstorming.
Negative ads in Washington and Illinois."

(All five time slots have been occupied by the barnstorming, and will cost 40 credits.  The two negative ads will cost 4 credits in total.)


Remember, submit your instructions to me in a personal message.

Hopefully you've understood everything I've explained so far.  If not, feel free to ask me and I'll clarify as best I can.

[Joe Republic]

 

MARCH
WEEK 1

ELECTION POLLS

XIAO 48%

HUDSON 48%

OTHERS 2%

UNDECIDED 3%

RATING: Margin: EVs:

STRONG D >10% 150

LEAN D 5-10% 43

SLIGHT D 2-5% 50

TOSSUP <2% 55

SLIGHT R 2-5% 51

LEAN R 5-10% 40

STRONG R >10% 149

XIAO 243

TOSSUP 55

HUDSON 240

FUNDRAISING AVAILABILITY

SPIN OPERATIVE LOCATIONS

CREDIT BALANCES

186		235

[Joe Republic]

Just some quick reminders:

I need to know before we can officially begin if you want to receive federal funding or not.  See the 'Earning credits' section above if you're not sure.

I also need you two to pick the location of your conventions.  I've limited the choices to the following:

Atlanta, GA
Baltimore, MD
Boston, MA
Chicago, IL
Cincinnati, OH
Cleveland, OH
Columbus, OH
Dallas, TX
Denver, CO
Detroit, MI
Honolulu, HI
Houston, TX
Indianapolis, IN
Jacksonville, FL
Las Vegas, NV
Los Angeles, CA
Memphis, TN
Miami, FL
Milwaukee, WI
Minneapolis, MN
New Orleans, LA
New York, NY
Oklahoma City, OK
Philadelphia, PA
Phoenix, AZ
Pittsburgh, PA
Portland, OR
Raleigh, NC
San Diego, CA
San Francisco, CA
San Jose, CA
Seattle, WA
St. Louis, MO
Washington, DC

And one last thing, forum members can post their endorsement choices right here in this thread.

[Јas]

Wow, Joe. Kudos on this which is obviously a very significant effort on your part.
I enjoyed the primary threads, so hopefully the fun continues.

Thanks for the work!

[Devilman88]

I endorse Helen Hudson

[President Marokai]

Good luck Xahar, he's going to need it given the current slant to Hudson.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I endorse Xander Xiao for President

Anyway, Joe, keep up the tremendous work. Finally we have a realistic simulation of a presidential election, President Forever doesn't count any more. I'm sure I'm not the only one, but I hope there will be a 2016 election cycle if you have the time, of course.

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

I endorse Xiao o/c

[A-Bob]

I endorse Helen Hudson.

Great game! Hope there is another one after this election cycle.

[Vepres]

Wow, Joe. Kudos on this which is obviously a very significant effort on your part.
I enjoyed the primary threads, so hopefully the fun continues.

Thanks for the work!

[Vepres]

I hope future elections won't necessarily be 50/50, just so that it is more real.

[President Marokai]

I hope future elections won't necessarily be 50/50, just so that it is more real.

I don't really call this match 50/50

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

I endorse Xander Xiao

[HappyWarrior]

Despite the hard-fought primary I endorse Xiao.

[Shilly]

I shall endorse Xiao.

[President Marokai]

I don't know if I have to endorse Xiao again but I will just to be sure.