Predctions on Election 2004

[John]

Here is My
Al: BUSH
Alaska: Bush
Arizona: Toss up
AK: Toss UP
CA: Kerry
CO: Bush
CONN: Kerry
DE: Kerry
DC: Kerry
Florida: Toss UP
GA: Toss UP
HA: Kerry
Idho: Bush
liiionis: Kerry
ID: Bush
Iowa: Toss Up
Kasnas: Bush
Kentucky: Bush
LA: Toss Up
Maine: Kerry
Maryland: Kerry
Mass: Kerry
Michgan: Kerry
Minnestoa: Kerry
Missississp: Bush
Missiour: Toss Up
Montan: Bush
NAbraska: Bush
NV: Toss Up
NH: Kerry
NJ: Kerry
NM: Toss Up
NY: Kerry
NC: Bush
ND: Bush
Ohio: Toss Up
OK: Bush
OR: Kerry
PA: Kerry
Rl: Kerry
SC: Bush
SD: Bush
Tennesse: Toss Up
Texas: Bush
Utah: Bush
Vermont: Kerry
Virginia: Bush
WA: Kerry
WV: Toss Up
WI: Kerry
WY: Bush

[Gustaf]

Here is My
Al: BUSH
Alaska: Bush
Arizona: Toss up
AK: Toss UP
CA: Kerry
CO: Bush
CONN: Kerry
DE: Kerry
DC: Kerry
Florida: Toss UP
GA: Toss UP
HA: Kerry
Idho: Bush
liiionis: Kerry
ID: Bush
Iowa: Toss Up
Kasnas: Bush
Kentucky: Bush
LA: Toss Up
Maine: Kerry
Maryland: Kerry
Mass: Kerry
Michgan: Kerry
Minnestoa: Kerry
Missississp: Bush
Missiour: Toss Up
Montan: Bush
NAbraska: Bush
NV: Toss Up
NH: Kerry
NJ: Kerry
NM: Toss Up
NY: Kerry
NC: Bush
ND: Bush
Ohio: Toss Up
OK: Bush
OR: Kerry
PA: Kerry
Rl: Kerry
SC: Bush
SD: Bush
Tennesse: Toss Up
Texas: Bush
Utah: Bush
Vermont: Kerry
Virginia: Bush
WA: Kerry
WV: Toss Up
WI: Kerry
WY: Bush

Hard to see GA as a tossup...also ID and Idaho are the same, as are AK and Alaska. And it's HI, not HA, etc. Just a few thoughts...

[Ben.]

Sorry But I’m going to bite…and I’ll call every state rather than give some as tossups…  


Alabama: Bush  
Alaska: Bush  
Arizona: Bush  
Arkansas: Bush  
California: Kerry  
Colorado: Bush  
Connecticut: Kerry
Delaware: Kerry  
District of Columbia: Kerry  
Florida: Bush
Georgia: Bush  
Hawaii: Kerry  
Idaho: Bush  
Illinois: Kerry  
Indiana: Bush  
Iowa: Bush  
Kansas: Bush  
Kentucky: Bush  
Louisiana: Bush
Maine: Kerry  
Maryland: Kerry  
Massachusetts: Kerry  
Michigan: Kerry  
Minnesota: Kerry  
Mississippi: Bush  
Missouri: Bush  
Montana: Bush  
Nebraska: Bush  
Nevada: Bush  
New Hampshire: Kerry  
New Jersey: Kerry  
New Mexico: Bush  
New York: Kerry  
North Carolina: Bush  
North Dakota: Bush  
Ohio: Kerry  
Oklahoma: Bush  
Oregon: Kerry  
Pennsylvania: Kerry  
Rhode Island: Kerry  
South Carolina: Bush
South Dakota: Bush
Tennessee: Bush
Texas: Bush
Utah: Bush
Vermont: Kerry  
Virginia: Bush
Washington: Kerry
West Virginia: Bush  
Wisconsin: Kerry
Wyoming: Bush

Note: States that are tossups in my view are…

New Hampshire (leads to Kerry)
Ohio (true tossup)
Florida (leans to Bush, but Nelson or Graham could change that)
Iowa (leans to Bush)
New Mexico (leans to Bush)
Nevada (leans to Bush)
Wisconsin (leans to Kerry)
Missouri (leans to Bush)      

[Gustaf]

Sorry But I’m going to bite…and I’ll call every state rather than give some as tossups…  


Alabama: Bush  
Alaska: Bush  
Arizona: Bush  
Arkansas: Bush  
California: Kerry  
Colorado: Bush  
Connecticut: Kerry
Delaware: Kerry  
District of Columbia: Kerry  
Florida: Bush
Georgia: Bush  
Hawaii: Kerry  
Idaho: Bush  
Illinois: Kerry  
Indiana: Bush  
Iowa: Bush  
Kansas: Bush  
Kentucky: Bush  
Louisiana: Bush
Maine: Kerry  
Maryland: Kerry  
Massachusetts: Kerry  
Michigan: Kerry  
Minnesota: Kerry  
Mississippi: Bush  
Missouri: Bush  
Montana: Bush  
Nebraska: Bush  
Nevada: Bush  
New Hampshire: Kerry  
New Jersey: Kerry  
New Mexico: Bush  
New York: Kerry  
North Carolina: Bush  
North Dakota: Bush  
Ohio: Kerry  
Oklahoma: Bush  
Oregon: Kerry  
Pennsylvania: Kerry  
Rhode Island: Kerry  
South Carolina: Bush
South Dakota: Bush
Tennessee: Bush
Texas: Bush
Utah: Bush
Vermont: Kerry  
Virginia: Bush
Washington: Kerry
West Virginia: Bush  
Wisconsin: Kerry
Wyoming: Bush

Note: States that are tossups in my view are…

New Hampshire (leads to Kerry)
Ohio (true tossup)
Florida (leans to Bush, but Nelson or Graham could change that)
Iowa (leans to Bush)
New Mexico (leans to Bush)
Nevada (leans to Bush)
Wisconsin (leans to Kerry)
Missouri (leans to Bush)      

Ev-total please?

[© tweed]

Good job john

I like "Missississp"

[Ben.]

Sorry Gustaf forget to post the total…Doh!... here your are…

Kerry/?(Dem) 272 Electoral votes.
Bush/ Cheney (Rep) 266 Electoral votes.  

[FIK]

Kerry/?(Dem) 272 Electoral votes.
Bush/ Cheney (Rep) 266 Electoral votes.  

I made exactly the same prediction like yours:



Bush: 266
Kerry: 272

possible tossup:
NV, MO, WV, FL, IA, NM (leaning Bush)
OH, OR, NH, WI (leaning Kerry)

[zachman]

Wow! You only picked two states without a plurality. Crossfire is about to talk about Tom Brokaw.

[7,052,770]

Yeah!  Iiiinois!

[Ben.]

Kerry/?(Dem) 272 Electoral votes.
Bush/ Cheney (Rep) 266 Electoral votes.  

I made exactly the same prediction like yours:



Bush: 266
Kerry: 272

possible tossup:
NV, MO, WV, FL, IA, NM (leaning Bush)
OH, OR, NH, WI (leaning Kerry)

Wow man!... great minds...

But you know I see Bush being able to win NM with his blatant wooing of the Hispanic vote while in Iowa he came really, really  close last time and i recon that with some of his conservative populism and despite Nader not being as big a spoiler as in 2000 he should without Buchanan be able to win the state... In Mn I doubt he'll win in 2000 the strong Green showing made the state much closer than it would have been and in 2002 strong liberal third party candidates also cost the Democrats the election... I see Bush social conservatism helping him to hold on to WV but with the steel tariffs issue it will be close and Kerry could still win it though Bush has the edge... Ohio in more diverse than WV and with a good moderate VP and with the steel tariff issue Kerry should get pushed over the top in the end in that state, in New Hampshire Kerry should win party because of geography and party because of the evidence of the massive independent turnout in the Dem primaries and the polling I’ve see all seems to suggest a firm Kerry advantage... sorry to be so brief... gota go...  

[zachman]

Anyone who voted for Buchanan wouldn't have voted for Bush or Gore.

[Ben.]

If I was a Buchanan voter I'd sure vote for Bush over Kerry... I wouldn’t expect them to stay home... many of them would have been put off by Bush's "compassionate conservatism" and will now be far more comfortable with Bush than they where before... so I'd say a tiny boost from these voters for Bush (basically the same as Kerry gets from penitent Nader voters from 2000)... but i still think that both NM and IA are leaning towards Bush as of now and by the same token Ohio and New Hampshire are leaning to Kerry (Ohio is going to be very very close though)...

[zachman]

Buchannan came close to a no name libertarian candidate.

[classical liberal]

GOP-114
DEM-424

Bush has alienated the Libertarian and Fiscal Conservative wings of the GOP.  He will loose for lack of turnout by his disgruntled base.

[Dave from Michigan]

 

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maybe so but he's NOT going to lose 424-114
 
 
 
 

 
 
 

[Kghadial]

Few democrats would think Kentucky, Indiana, the Carolinas, and probably Tennessee are anywhere close to in reach.

[John]

Sorry Gustaf forget to post the total…Doh!... here your are…

Kerry/?(Dem) 272 Electoral votes.
Bush/ Cheney (Rep) 266 Electoral votes.  

That a Good Number

[Jacob]

Here are my guesses:


Alabama: Bush  
Alaska: Bush  
Arizona: Bush  
Arkansas: Bush  
California: Kerry  
Colorado: Bush  
Connecticut: Kerry
Delaware: Kerry  
District of Columbia: Kerry  
Florida: Kerry
Georgia: Bush  
Hawaii: Kerry  
Idaho: Bush  
Illinois: Kerry  
Indiana: Bush  
Iowa: Kerry
Kansas: Bush  
Kentucky: Bush  
Louisiana: Bush
Maine: Kerry  
Maryland: Kerry  
Massachusetts: Kerry  
Michigan: Kerry  
Minnesota: Kerry  
Mississippi: Bush  
Missouri: Kerry
Montana: Bush  
Nebraska: Bush  
Nevada: Kerry
New Hampshire: Kerry  
New Jersey: Kerry  
New Mexico: Kerry
New York: Kerry  
North Carolina: Bush  
North Dakota: Bush  
Ohio: Kerry  
Oklahoma: Bush  
Oregon: Kerry  
Pennsylvania: Kerry  
Rhode Island: Kerry  
South Carolina: Bush
South Dakota: Bush
Tennessee: Bush
Texas: Bush
Utah: Bush
Vermont: Kerry  
Virginia: Bush
Washington: Kerry
West Virginia: Kerry
Wisconsin: Kerry
Wyoming: Bush

Note: States that are tossups in my view are…

New Hampshire (leads to Kerry)
Ohio (true tossup)
Florida (leans to Bush, but Nelson or Graham could change that)
Iowa (leans to Bush)
New Mexico (leans to Bush)
Nevada (leans to Bush)
Wisconsin (leans to Kerry)
Missouri (leans to Bush)  


Electoral vote totals:

Kerry 312
Bush 226

A solid win for Kerry. Kerry wins all of the states that Gore won in 2000(because the Nader factor is not so influential), and adds Florida, New Hampshire, Missouri, Nevada and Ohio to his column. I consider these 4 tossup states but I would say that they are leaning Kerry at the moment.

If the election were held today, Kerry would almost certainly win. Unfortunately, the election was not held today, so we still have around 12 or 13 states nationwide that can honestly be considered tossups.

Anyway, there are my guesses. Make of them what you will.
 
 
 
 

[Ben.]

 Wait a minute

[Gustaf]

Wait a minute

How long a minute?

To 9Iron: it COULD happen, but I agree that it's very unlikely.

[??????????]

Yes, Americans want a president who will end the war on terror. Good job democrats. Typical, exactly why 9/11 happened in the first place. Clinton not caring about terrorism.

[Wakie]

Yes, Americans want a president who will end the war on terror. Good job democrats. Typical, exactly why 9/11 happened in the first place. Clinton not caring about terrorism.

I find it exceedingly ignorant to blame 9/11 on any one individual.  Prior to 9/11 grand scale terrorism was hypothetical in the US.  Yet Clinton more than doubled the counter-terrorism budgets of more than 20 organizations.

While the GOP was crying about a missile shield, Clinton was focusing on terrorism in a number of his highest profile speeches, including addressing the UN.

I don't blame the Bush administration for 9/11.  I don't blame anyone but the terrorists.  But I will say I think it is a shame that it took 9/11 to wake the Bush administration up to the threat of terrorism and make them realize that a missile shield is a secondary concern.

[??????????]

Oh yes, I remember how Clinton fought terrorism. He knew about Osama Bin Laden and his exact location...nothing. Nigeria (I believe) told the CIA where they could find him....nothing. The USS Cole was bombed....nothing. Good job Clinton, I'm glad to see launching a few missles did something. Bush was only sworn in Jan of 2001, he was still building his Administration when we were attacked on 9/11. If it happened 9/11/02 or 03 I might agree with you.

[Wakie]

Oh yes, I remember how Clinton fought terrorism. He knew about Osama Bin Laden and his exact location...nothing. Nigeria (I believe) told the CIA where they could find him....nothing. The USS Cole was bombed....nothing. Good job Clinton, I'm glad to see launching a few missles did something. Bush was only sworn in Jan of 2001, he was still building his Administration when we were attacked on 9/11. If it happened 9/11/02 or 03 I might agree with you.

So do you also think Reagan was soft on terrorism?  I mean come on, marine barracks in Lebanon get bombed ... nothing.  Heck, all he did was drop a few bombs on Tripoli.

And I would like to repeat that I do not blame the Bush administration for 9/11.  But lets consider their rhetoric during the election and the rhetoric out of Congress.  A missile shield was the biggest security concern to them.

[??????????]

Oh yes, I remember how Clinton fought terrorism. He knew about Osama Bin Laden and his exact location...nothing. Nigeria (I believe) told the CIA where they could find him....nothing. The USS Cole was bombed....nothing. Good job Clinton, I'm glad to see launching a few missles did something. Bush was only sworn in Jan of 2001, he was still building his Administration when we were attacked on 9/11. If it happened 9/11/02 or 03 I might agree with you.

So do you also think Reagan was soft on terrorism?  I mean come on, marine barracks in Lebanon get bombed ... nothing.  Heck, all he did was drop a few bombs on Tripoli.

And I would like to repeat that I do not blame the Bush administration for 9/11.  But lets consider their rhetoric during the election and the rhetoric out of Congress.  A missile shield was the biggest security concern to them.

Yes! I agree 100% Reagan was soft on terrorism! But I'll also contend that it wasnt to the extent it is now until after the fall of the Soviet Union. The US trained Osama and many of our current enemies. But that was the times and the number one priority was defeating communism. A missle shield is still a very good idea, considering North Korea and possibly Iran. Things change, a lot of things did after 9/11. What Bush did before that and after should be put into consideration. Did many common Americans think a major attack was coming?