Will these PA Candidates lose their seats/flip parties?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Murtha was cleared in his ethics inquiry:

http://www.tribune-democrat.com/local/local_story_354231438.html

I'd say Kanjo will probably lose, Republicans have a better than 50% chance of picking up PA-07, Democrats have a 50/50 shot at PA-06, Dahlkemper and Dent are slight favorites to be re-elected, and the others will be re-elected. 1-2 net Republican pickups.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Charlie Dent- Possible upset with stronger challengers.  It's a lean Democratic district in a normal year.  I think Dent holds due to incumbency.

Charlie Dent's district is getting more and more Republican by the second.  With a perfect challenger and a perfect Democratic year, he might accidentally lose, but the guy is a veteran politico from a State Senate district including Allentown.

I mean, seriously.  Last year, his opponent spent about $1,000,000 to lose by seventeen points.  This isn't happening for Dems.  Period.

Yes, because you know, going from a 50-50 district in 2004 to a 56-43 district in 2008 certainly spells doom for the Democrats.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Yes, because you know, going from a 50-50 district in 2004 to a 56-43 district in 2008 certainly spells doom for the Democrats.

This is a D+2 district. The DCCC put some money here in 2008. The Democratic candidate spent a million dollars. Obama won the district in a "break Democratic" year.

And Charlie Dent still won by 17.

That's what spells doom for Democrats.

Though I'll be very interested in hearing where you think those 18 points of Democratic performance are going to come from!

Sam Bennett was a bad candidate, from what I remember. I never considered PA-15 to be vulnerable in 2008. You can pour as much money as you want into a race, but if your candidate sucks, you won't win regardless.