Will these PA Candidates lose their seats/flip parties?

[TeePee4Prez]

Kathy Dahlkemper- Not likely.  She fits the district well.

Jason Altmire-  See Dahlkemper, except he.

PA-6-  Democrats are soaring, but is ancestrally Republican with a deep bench.  Possible divisive GOP Primary. I think Doug Pike narrowly wins. +1D

PA-7-  Like PA-6, Democrats are doing better, but not as much.  Rising star State Rep. Bryan Lentz on the DEM side vs. popular attorney Pat Meehan on GOP side.  Would flip with a 2002 GOP favored political climate, but not likely.  Lentz pulls it off by 4.

Chris Carney-  He's holding is own even in a strong, but not overly GOP district.  Wins by 10.

Paul Kanjorski- Corey O'Brien may knock this joker off in the primary.  Then it's on to Lou Barletta.  Barletta is too well known for O'Brien and even if Kanjorski wins the primary, he needed Biden/Clinton help in a favorable climate with Obama winning a 94% white, supermajority H. Clinton primary result district.  Not happening this time. O'Brien would actually make it closer. +1R

Jack Murtha- Despite his stupidity, this district knows they need his pork.  Bill Russell may grease him a little more, but Murtha holds by 5.

Charlie Dent- Possible upset with stronger challengers.  It's a lean Democratic district in a normal year.  I think Dent holds due to incumbency.

Conclusion:  Pennsylvania will break even with PA 6 -> D and PA 11 -> R.

[TeePee4Prez]

With the exception of Kanjorski, you will probably not see a Democrat elected between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.  I'd expect Meehan to take Delco, even if the GOP there are morons.

You would pick Kanjorski over Holden?  HAHAHHAHAHAHA.  Wow.  Really?  All seriousness why?

PA-7 has moved too much in the Democratic column for the GOP to have a shot unless the Dem had corruption issues.  With an even match like Lentz vs. Meehan, I'm gonna have to go Lentz by default.

PA-6 voted heavily for Obama.  It's arguably the 4th or 5th most socially liberal district in the state, possibly tied with the 13th.  Mind you Curt Schroder may have more name rec than Doug Pike, but it won't matter much.

Just like PA would only go Obama by 2 points.... right!  Funny, I even underestimated PA in 2008, but knew which areas would shift which way.  I just underestimated how much.  It seems the white ethnic Dem areas shifted right and west of Philadelphia, including Lancaster, Berks, and Chester Counties shifted drastically to the left over the past decade.  Look at Joe Pitts' district (PA-16) for crying out loud.  Obama was within 3 and he's a conservanut.  The Dems should eventually target him, but mind you the guy would have to be a Blue Dog/DLCer at least.

[TeePee4Prez]

Any first termer is vulnerable particulary if the climate shifts from DEm to Rep. The only exception is if the GOP candidate is horrible. So that puts PA-03 in the competative category. I think that as of right now it is likely that both PA-06 and PA-07 will vote the same way as the other. They are both marginal to lean Dem, both open, and both have reasonably strong contenders on both sides.

PA-10 is definately not a district you want to take for granted. If a wave of even 5% or more strikes it will definately rear its head in this district.


PA-11, I will agree with Flyers

PA-12 McCain was the first Repub to win this district in years. Murtha's nonense alone and Russell's strong fundraising alone would make it a 5% seat like Flyers said, however, the possibility of even a slight wave must be considered and it wouldn't take much of a wave to flip over a seat that would be so close anyways.

PA-15. If you couldn't swipe it in 2006 or 2008, its probably not going in 2010. Though I would keep my eye on it to be safe.

I'm only putting the 15th on radar.  Dent is not invincible, but likely to win.

PA-12 is even with what I think of 2010.  It's about a Murtha +7 on a normalized year.  But we shall see what Jack comes up with.  I'd like to see someone knock him off.

[TeePee4Prez]

With J. J. it certainly has become interesting but this thread would be a world more interesting if a certain poster from Phill was here lol

It will be a national election, like 1994.  Murtha, who would normally be the strongest, is under investigation.

If it were a 1994, then yeah it would be hard for Dems to win from Pittsburgh to Philadelphia.  One, it's not happening.  Two, the state is more Democratic than the national average.  It would take a miracle to defeat Murphy and Holden at this point.  Carney established himself nicely.  Dahlkemper/Altmire might have issues due to their newness, but they fit their districts well. Of course, PA 6/7 are solid GOP possibilities and only Kanjorski and Murtha really need worry.  Then again PA 6/7 are pretty liberal and social conservatives Schroder and Meehan have some convincing to do on those issues.  The GOP's best bets in the state are knocking off Kanjorski and Murtha- not quite liberal areas, incumbents have major issues.

[TeePee4Prez]

With the exception of Kanjorski, you will probably not see a Democrat elected between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.  I'd expect Meehan to take Delco, even if the GOP there are morons.

Do you include Pat Murphy in PA-08 there?  

Speaking of PA-07, I hear through the grapevine that both national and state Democrats are begging Sestak to drop his primary challenge to Specter and run for reelection. 

That'd be dumb. Sestak is a far stronger candidate than Specter.

Agreed, but Pat Meehan is no one to take lightly.

[TeePee4Prez]

Murtha was cleared in his ethics inquiry:

http://www.tribune-democrat.com/local/local_story_354231438.html

I'd say Kanjo will probably lose, Republicans have a better than 50% chance of picking up PA-07, Democrats have a 50/50 shot at PA-06, Dahlkemper and Dent are slight favorites to be re-elected, and the others will be re-elected. 1-2 net Republican pickups.

I'm still not sold on PA-7 for the GOP.  The Democrats have a solid base there and a field of candidates.  I'd be far more afraid if Pat Murphy in PA-8 were to give up his seat.

[TeePee4Prez]

Murtha was cleared in his ethics inquiry:

http://www.tribune-democrat.com/local/local_story_354231438.html

I'd say Kanjo will probably lose, Republicans have a better than 50% chance of picking up PA-07, Democrats have a 50/50 shot at PA-06, Dahlkemper and Dent are slight favorites to be re-elected, and the others will be re-elected. 1-2 net Republican pickups.

I'm still not sold on PA-7 for the GOP.  The Democrats have a solid base there and a field of candidates.  I'd be far more afraid if Pat Murphy in PA-8 were to give up his seat.

I dunno. If Barletta could get a 48-52 result in 2008 with massive Obama coattails in the district, what is the likely result in 2010?

Barletta also lost by double digits in 2002, which was a very good Republican year. 

But obvious per the 2008 results, Kanjorski has problems of his own.  Obama actually outperformed him there, which I was shocked with.  The district is 94% white and older than the national average.

[TeePee4Prez]

Kathy Dahlkemper- no good challengers, so a fairly comfortable reelection for dahlkemper

Jason Altmire-  He'll be fine, unless former u.s. attorney mary beth buchanan enters the race.  If she runs, i think she can pull off an upset and defeat altmire.

PA-6- Doug Pike wins narrowly

PA-7- Pat Meehan wins 51-47

Chris Carney-  comfortably reelected

Paul Kanjorski- unless kanjorski loses in the primary (doubtful), I think Barletta wins

Jack Murtha- I think Russell will take out Murtha this election.  Will be doing some work for the Russell campaign

Charlie Dent- If Dent survived 06 and 08, he'll make it through 2010.

I'll say it again, Meehan is overrated, Lentz is underrated.  PA-7 is moving left.  Stays DEM.

Murtha provides too much for PA-12 and his politics fit perfect.  Russell is waaaaay too far to the right for any PA district except PA-9.  No dice.

Otherwise, I agree.

[TeePee4Prez]

Charlie Dent- Possible upset with stronger challengers.  It's a lean Democratic district in a normal year.  I think Dent holds due to incumbency.

Charlie Dent's district is getting more and more Republican by the second.  With a perfect challenger and a perfect Democratic year, he might accidentally lose, but the guy is a veteran politico from a State Senate district including Allentown.

I mean, seriously.  Last year, his opponent spent about $1,000,000 to lose by seventeen points.  This isn't happening for Dems.  Period.

You mean the district is getting more Democratic by the second right?

Obama did better than Kerry by a little bit there.  In-migration from NYC and Philly should help the area become more Democratic.  The Lehigh Valley is a very politically eclectic place that could make any politicos head spin.  You have exurbs, suburbs, rusting union areas, rural farms, pro-life Dems, pro-choice Repubs.  It could be hard to tell what would happen from one year to the next there.  A true swing area- A Pat Toomey could easily win as much as a Jennifer Mann.

This is one area that really is hard to tell the trends because it has urban-exurban migration, but at the same time the populist shift to the GOP.

[TeePee4Prez]

Yes, because you know, going from a 50-50 district in 2004 to a 56-43 district in 2008 certainly spells doom for the Democrats.

This is a D+2 district. The DCCC put some money here in 2008. The Democratic candidate spent a million dollars. Obama won the district in a "break Democratic" year.

And Charlie Dent still won by 17.

That's what spells doom for Democrats.

Though I'll be very interested in hearing where you think those 18 points of Democratic performance are going to come from!

Charlie Dent is also one of the more liberal Republicans in the House, both economically and socially.