Clinton vs. Jeb Bush 2000

[Bo]

Mario Cuomo defeats Bush Sr. in 1992 and gets reelected in 1996. His VP, Bill Clinton, is the Democratic nominee is 2000. The Republicans nominate Jeb Bush, who was elected Governor or Florida in 1994 and was reelected in 1998. The economy is in good shape, but stock prices are falling throughout 2000, which many analysts believe indicates a recession is coming very soon. However, unemployment is still low at 4.1% on election day and inflation is also low. How would this election turn out? I'm thinking Clinton will narrowly win.

Discuss, with maps.

[Vosem]

Bush's Floridian strength frees up time for him to campaign in other states. Clinton, unlike Gore, works to keep Appalachia on his side.

Clinton 270
Bush 268

Clinton wins the election narrowly, while Bush wins the popular vote.

[Bo]

Bush's Floridian strength frees up time for him to campaign in other states. Clinton, unlike Gore, works to keep Appalachia on his side.

Clinton 270
Bush 268

Clinton wins the election narrowly, while Bush wins the popular vote.

This map seems about right, except I would give NH, WI, IA, and OH to Clinton due to his charisma and the good economy.

[GLPman]

Would've been very close and probably could have gone either way. I gave it to Clinton for the hell of it.

William J. Clinton (D-AR) / Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH): 276 EV
John E. "Jeb" Bus (R-FL) / A. Lamar Alexander (R-TN): 262 EV

[Bo]

Would've been very close and probably could have gone either way. I gave it to Clinton for the hell of it.

William J. Clinton (D-AR) / Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH): 276 EV
John E. "Jeb" Bus (R-FL) / A. Lamar Alexander (R-TN): 262 EV

If Shaheen is on the Democratic ticket, wouldn't that swing NH to Clinton? Also, wouldn't picking Shaheen energize the women's vote and allow Clinton to win several more states than you have shown? (I think if Gore would have picked a woman in 2000 in RL he would have definitely won, assuming that woman was competent).

[GLPman]

Would've been very close and probably could have gone either way. I gave it to Clinton for the hell of it.

William J. Clinton (D-AR) / Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH): 276 EV
John E. "Jeb" Bus (R-FL) / A. Lamar Alexander (R-TN): 262 EV

If Shaheen is on the Democratic ticket, wouldn't that swing NH to Clinton? Also, wouldn't picking Shaheen energize the women's vote and allow Clinton to win several more states than you have shown? (I think if Gore would have picked a woman in 2000 in RL he would have definitely won, assuming that woman was competent).

A ticket's VP doesn't always pull the state. Remember Gore in 2000? Edwards in 2004? And yes, Shaheen DID energize the women's vote, which is why Clinton carried Ohio and held onto states like Oregon, and Minnesota. Keep in mind that in this scenario, the Democrats have been in charge for the past 8 years, so favor lies with the Republicans. Furthermore, Jeb Bush was a much more successful and competent governor than George W. Bush; his campaign would have been better.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think this is a better map of Clinton and Shaheen

[Bo]

I think this is a better map of Clinton and Shaheen

This map is about right, just flip NV to Clinton. I think Clinton's charisma, the large Latino voting pool, and the women's vote being energized by having one of their own on the ticket would allow Clinton to carry NV.