Will Sarkozy get reelected in 2012? If no, who will defeat him?
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  Will Sarkozy get reelected in 2012? If no, who will defeat him?
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Yes
 
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No
 
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Author Topic: Will Sarkozy get reelected in 2012? If no, who will defeat him?  (Read 5588 times)
Bo
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« on: December 25, 2009, 05:32:17 PM »

I'd say Yes, but I could be wrong.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1 on: December 26, 2009, 06:20:53 PM »

Strauss-Khan or Delanoe can defeat him. Anyone else would probably lose, except if the politic situation keeps worsening as it's doing.
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Bo
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« Reply #2 on: December 27, 2009, 01:10:34 PM »

Strauss-Khan or Delanoe can defeat him. Anyone else would probably lose, except if the politic situation keeps worsening as it's doing.

Will either of them get nominated though? I think Royal or Aubry has a much greater chance of being the Socialist Party nominee in 2012. I got to admit though, it would be kinda cool if France had a gay president (Delanoe). The U.S. is at least several decades away from electing one.
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Hash
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« Reply #3 on: December 27, 2009, 02:01:51 PM »

I already answered this question in another thread, but anyways.

Sarkozy's only chance to get re-elected in 2012 is if the left manages to nominate a twit or if the left is hopelessly divided in a way that prevents reconciliation. While that seems rather difficult, it's much simpler than it seems. And so far, the field for 2012 looks much like that. Royal has favourability ratings below those of Sarkozy, Aubry is useless and lacks charisma, Hollande is much the same and carries the 'old' baggage around, and the youngies are significantly overrated in that in the end they're the worst hacks imaginable. Only Moscovici is decent within the 'young generation', and he has little hope.

Delanoë is overrated. He's a moderate hero at best, and his political skills are awful. He had his chance in Reims, but he self-sabotaged it away. I doubt he'll even run, since he's realized that his political limelight has passed and if he did he wouldn't win since his political machine is as heterogeneous and fake as was Vargas' Liberal Alliance in 1930.

Only Strauss-Kahn, in my mind, is the candidate who pretty much guarantees the PS a 55%+ chance to win. That said, it remains to be seen whether or not he'll give up the fabulous perks of being IMF director in Washington to return to France.

However, if Sarkozy keeps stumbling and being an incompetent President, then the chances for even the twits in the PS lineup improve. After all, Mitterrand only won re-election in 1988 because Chirac's government was one of the worst governments since 1958, and that Mitterrand out-maneuvered him and got the upper hand of it all. His ratings in 1985 and 1986 were not solid (though not as bad, iirc, as Sarkozy's ratings are today) and, imo, he would have lost in 1988 if it was not for the cohabitation. Chirac only won re-election in 2002 because of Le Pen, since he would have had a very close runoff otherwise with Jospin and if Jospin had ended up narrowly losing it would be more because Jospin's approvals were slipping than a plebiscite for Chirac. I would not dare say that France is pro-incumbent, never to the level the US and other Anglosphere countries tend to be.

Sarkozy has no cohabitation to gain advantage of, like Mitterrand did in 1988, and he's been a poor President and his policies and style have alienated the opposition but also many centrists and right-leaning voters.
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #4 on: January 11, 2010, 04:03:59 PM »
« Edited: January 11, 2010, 04:24:36 PM by Bon écoute, non, [wagon] arrête, hiérarchise... »

The only possibility for Sarkozy to win in 2012 is a big abstention. His image is just out in the country. And Villepin could run.

The only possibility to have a big abstention depends of the popular participation in the Left's Primaries.

A fail of participation remains very possible, but it could be the opposite too. That's today my main interrogation mark.

The 3 PS candidates in primaries will be:

Hollande
Royal
Valls

Aubry is the best of the 'old school generation', but she is too modest and constructive and hasn't enough personal ego to run the battle, she will let the place to Hollande to represent this part of the PS. Strauss Kahn is totally overrated, he is the opposite of a French presidential elections, it amuses journalist and the elite, period.

Valls will represent all the nervous arrogant youngies. Highly uninteresting for me.

Royal will represent the new way to do politics, she'll run for the popular vote. She is the only one to be able to handle such a thing as primaries, she also the only one to be able to handle a big popular vote, she is the only one who know what to do of her ego.

There may be one from EE (Europe Ecologie), but if so they know they would just run to make some figures, which they will certainly make, but not to get the sit, the FDG (Front De Gauche) could do the same, but less sure, NPA, LCR would of course stay out.

The arrogant kitty, Valls, will obviously do a ridiculous score.

The fight between Hollande and Royal would be nasty as hell, and would get the spotlights of the whole West, but Hollande will be of course out. Royal will win. And if she wins with a big participation during primaries she'll win 2012.

I could give other developments, which could be pretty interesting, and which could even lead to deep changes in French politics, but depends in part of Greens, let's see regionals first.

Okay, now you know what will happen, you just have to sit, facing your TV/Computer, and wait to make it match.



Héhé, sure, I can't be pretend having the truth, do the hell what you want of this...



Oh, a Copé-Hollande debate will just begin, let's watch it...
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #5 on: January 11, 2010, 04:35:30 PM »

Hollande remains Hollande, but it's good to see that Copé found someone to deal with, that he doesn't smash in 2 sentences.
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Frodo
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« Reply #6 on: May 26, 2011, 07:17:09 PM »

Bump -in the wake of DSK's dramatic fall from grace, Sarkozy's chances certainly look much brighter. 
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #7 on: May 26, 2011, 11:01:43 PM »

Bump -in the wake of DSK's dramatic fall from grace, Sarkozy's chances certainly look much brighter. 

They certainly do.  I excpect Royale to make anothe run. 
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #8 on: May 27, 2011, 05:25:14 AM »

If the election were held today, Sarkozy would almost certainly be defeated in a landslide. Both major candidates lead him by 3-5 points in the 1st round and trounce him in the second. Every poll goes in that direction.

With that said, my guts say in the end it will be far closer than that. My main fear are the PS primaries, because socialists have an outstanding ability in killing each other and transform an assured victory in a defeat. There will be an extremely bitter fight between Hollande and Aubry, and both are dumb enough to make silly attacks that will hurt the winner in the general election.

So far, I'd give a prudent answer and say Sarkozy has 50% chances to win. Maybe I'm overly pessimistic but I really fear the PS losing machine.
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Franzl
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« Reply #9 on: May 27, 2011, 06:41:58 AM »

Not pretending I know anything about French politics, but I can't help but believe the PS will f**k things up Smiley
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Hash
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« Reply #10 on: May 27, 2011, 07:45:03 AM »

there's already a thread about 2012. Use it.
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Pingvin
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« Reply #11 on: May 27, 2011, 11:24:15 AM »

I hope that Marine Le Pen would kick UMP and PS asses.
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Franzl
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« Reply #12 on: May 27, 2011, 11:37:09 AM »

I hope that Marine Le Pen would kick UMP and PS asses.

Why would any reasonable person hope that?
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Pingvin
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« Reply #13 on: May 27, 2011, 11:54:54 AM »

I hope that Marine Le Pen would kick UMP and PS asses.

Why would any reasonable person hope that?
Because it is sick : UMP, PS, UMP, PS...
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Franzl
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« Reply #14 on: May 27, 2011, 11:59:47 AM »

I hope that Marine Le Pen would kick UMP and PS asses.

Why would any reasonable person hope that?
Because it is sick : UMP, PS, UMP, PS...


Ah ok, you've got a point. I guess fascism is better than the boring UMP-PS back-and-forth.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #15 on: May 27, 2011, 12:01:52 PM »

I hope that Marine Le Pen would kick UMP and PS asses.

You are an idiot.
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Pingvin
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« Reply #16 on: May 27, 2011, 12:22:43 PM »

So, somebody who isn't agree is automatically idiot? Good point.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #17 on: May 27, 2011, 01:19:37 PM »

So, somebody who isn't agree is automatically idiot? Good point.

No, you're and idiot, a fascist, a racist and something more Wink
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