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| | |-+  What republican has the best chance to win Patty Murray's senate seat?
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Author Topic: What republican has the best chance to win Patty Murray's senate seat?  (Read 6189 times)
redcommander
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« on: December 26, 2009, 09:51:48 pm »
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Out of possible and already declared Republican candidates, which stands a chanced of winning the seat? Personally, I am hoping for someone else to enter the race. The field right now doesn't appear extremely electable to me at the moment. Reichert and McKenna are not going to run most likely. What about someone like Susan Hutchison? I realize she lost the King County Executive race, but she managed to pull over 40% in a county which McCain got less than 30% percent of the vote in. She could build on her bi-partisan endorsements, despite almost certainly having to show her conservative true colors in a senate race, and could rack up enough votes in the rest of the state to offset a King County win for Murray.
« Last Edit: December 26, 2009, 10:25:56 pm by redcommander »Logged
Smash255
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« Reply #1 on: December 26, 2009, 10:29:37 pm »
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none, no chance in hell.
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Lunar
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« Reply #2 on: December 27, 2009, 02:22:17 am »
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Utah could end up being more competitive (but probably won't).

I'm not sure if this race is the top 20.
« Last Edit: December 27, 2009, 02:47:59 am by Lunar »Logged

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bgwah
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« Reply #3 on: December 27, 2009, 02:43:23 am »
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Cathy McMorris Rodgers or Rob McKenna. But they would still probably lose.
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Bo
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« Reply #4 on: December 27, 2009, 02:37:17 pm »
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Jaime Herrera.
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bgwah
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« Reply #5 on: December 28, 2009, 01:51:47 am »
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Jaime Herrera.

She's already running for something else. Tongue

But as an attractive young Hispanic woman, she should instantly become the star of the Washington GOP when she wins a House seat next November.
« Last Edit: December 28, 2009, 01:53:32 am by bgwah »Logged

Bo
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« Reply #6 on: December 28, 2009, 02:36:42 am »
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Jaime Herrera.

She's already running for something else. Tongue

But as an attractive young Hispanic woman, she should instantly become the star of the Washington GOP when she wins a House seat next November.

I wasn't talking about 2010. I was talking about 2016, 2022, or even later than that.
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Lunar
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« Reply #7 on: December 28, 2009, 02:37:09 am »
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I believe Silver at 538 once did an analysis of this, but really I do not believe there is a significant advantage for rising-star Representatives to waiting before they run for higher office.  However, I'm pretty sure they universally have to win higher office first.

There are exceptions, neither Biden nor Obama were ever Representatives.  I think Biden had one of the lowest pre-Senate profiles in the Senate, forcing awkard comparisons to Ted Kennedy and Al Franken for who had the least qualifications before they ran.  
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bgwah
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« Reply #8 on: December 28, 2009, 06:18:42 pm »
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Jaime Herrera.

She's already running for something else. Tongue

But as an attractive young Hispanic woman, she should instantly become the star of the Washington GOP when she wins a House seat next November.

I wasn't talking about 2010. I was talking about 2016, 2022, or even later than that.

But you are posting in the 2010 sub-forum... Tongue
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redcommander
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« Reply #9 on: December 28, 2009, 11:35:04 pm »
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What about getting a businessman or woman to run? Are there any prominent Republicans who could possibly throw their hat in? Many of the elected Republicans in the state seem to be avoiding to run. I heard someone on a blog bring up John Stanton's name. He has a good enough resume.

John Stanton is a wireless industry pioneer co-founding three top 10 wireless operators during his nearly 25 year history in the industry. Early in his career, John helped found McCaw Cellular Communications in 1982 where he served as Chief Operating Officer and Vice Chairman.

Beginning in 1989, John formed a series of private entities that in 1994 were combined to form Western Wireless Corporation, where he served as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer from 1989 to 2005. Western Wireless, which was the nationís seventh largest independent cellular company when it merged with Alltel Corporation in August 2005.

Western Wireless formed VoiceStream Wireless as a subsidiary in 1995, and spun off as an independent public company in May 1999. John served as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of VoiceStream until it was sold to Deutsche Telekom in 2001. At the time, VoiceStream was the sixth largest wireless company in the U.S. Deutsche Telekom subsequently changed the name to T-Mobile. John served as Chairman and CEO of VoiceStream and T-Mobile USA from 1995 to 2003.

In 2006 John and several colleagues formed Trilogy Equity Partners, which invests in small wireless related companies, and Trilogy International Partners which operates wireless systems in south and central America.

John served as chairman of national wireless associations three times, once each during the 1980ís representing McCaw, the 1990ís representing Western Wireless and in 2000-2001 representing VoiceStream/T-Mobile. He presently serves as a board member of Advanced Digital Information Corporation, Hutchison Telecommunications International, Columbia Sportswear and as a Trustee of Whitman College. A Seattle native, John graduated from Whitman College with a Bachelor of Arts in Political Science. He received his M.B.A. from Harvard Business School.
http://bschool.washington.edu/corp/breakfast_series/stanton.shtml
« Last Edit: December 28, 2009, 11:40:01 pm by redcommander »Logged
Joe Republic
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« Reply #10 on: December 28, 2009, 11:48:28 pm »

I hate to burst your bubble, but this seat has been rated as safely Democratic by every single major analyst:

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball
Cook Political Report
CQ Politics
Rothenberg Political Report
Swing State Project
Campaign Diaries
FiveThirtyEight

A 52-40 approval rating for a Democrat in a Democratic state is more than enough.
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« Reply #11 on: December 28, 2009, 11:56:33 pm »
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Dino Rossi
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« Reply #12 on: December 29, 2009, 01:30:41 am »
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Take it from someone living in the state -- defeating Patty Murray is a fool's errand.  Rob McKenna would have the best chance insofar as he would lose by the smallest/least embarrassing margin.  No one is lining up to take her on because they know it's a guaranteed loss.



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Bo
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« Reply #13 on: December 29, 2009, 01:57:32 am »
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Jaime Herrera.

She's already running for something else. Tongue

But as an attractive young Hispanic woman, she should instantly become the star of the Washington GOP when she wins a House seat next November.

I wasn't talking about 2010. I was talking about 2016, 2022, or even later than that.

But you are posting in the 2010 sub-forum... Tongue

Yes but this question didn't specifically ask about 2010? If it did, I would have said "No Republican because they'll all lose."
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #14 on: December 29, 2009, 08:06:54 am »
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What about getting a businessman or woman to run? Are there any prominent Republicans who could possibly throw their hat in? Many of the elected Republicans in the state seem to be avoiding to run. I heard someone on a blog bring up John Stanton's name. He has a good enough resume.

John Stanton is a wireless industry pioneer co-founding three top 10 wireless operators during his nearly 25 year history in the industry. Early in his career, John helped found McCaw Cellular Communications in 1982 where he served as Chief Operating Officer and Vice Chairman.

Beginning in 1989, John formed a series of private entities that in 1994 were combined to form Western Wireless Corporation, where he served as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer from 1989 to 2005. Western Wireless, which was the nationís seventh largest independent cellular company when it merged with Alltel Corporation in August 2005.

Western Wireless formed VoiceStream Wireless as a subsidiary in 1995, and spun off as an independent public company in May 1999. John served as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of VoiceStream until it was sold to Deutsche Telekom in 2001. At the time, VoiceStream was the sixth largest wireless company in the U.S. Deutsche Telekom subsequently changed the name to T-Mobile. John served as Chairman and CEO of VoiceStream and T-Mobile USA from 1995 to 2003.

In 2006 John and several colleagues formed Trilogy Equity Partners, which invests in small wireless related companies, and Trilogy International Partners which operates wireless systems in south and central America.

John served as chairman of national wireless associations three times, once each during the 1980ís representing McCaw, the 1990ís representing Western Wireless and in 2000-2001 representing VoiceStream/T-Mobile. He presently serves as a board member of Advanced Digital Information Corporation, Hutchison Telecommunications International, Columbia Sportswear and as a Trustee of Whitman College. A Seattle native, John graduated from Whitman College with a Bachelor of Arts in Political Science. He received his M.B.A. from Harvard Business School.
http://bschool.washington.edu/corp/breakfast_series/stanton.shtml


They tried a businessman in 2006 against Maria Cantwell. Result: 40% of the vote.

They tried a woman in 1998 against Murray. Result: 42% of the vote.
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« Reply #15 on: December 29, 2009, 05:54:47 pm »
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I believe Silver at 538 once did an analysis of this, but really I do not believe there is a significant advantage for rising-star Representatives to waiting before they run for higher office. However, I'm pretty sure they universally have to win higher office first.

I think it depends.  If you're going to run for an open Senate seat it may not necessarily help to have a lot of years in the House.  If, however, you're going to challenge an incumbent, more years in the House may be helpful.  It all depends on who you're running against, and where.
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« Reply #16 on: December 29, 2009, 11:53:01 pm »
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none, no chance in hell.
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Jensen
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« Reply #17 on: January 30, 2010, 04:32:09 am »
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Dino Rossi seems to be having some poll success.
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Lunar
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« Reply #18 on: February 04, 2010, 01:11:09 am »
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Dino Rossi seems to be having some poll success.

Yet without his knowledge until after the poll hits the media.  A little unusual for luring candidates.
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Lunar
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« Reply #19 on: February 04, 2010, 01:12:58 am »
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I believe Silver at 538 once did an analysis of this, but really I do not believe there is a significant advantage for rising-star Representatives to waiting before they run for higher office. However, I'm pretty sure they universally have to win higher office first.

I think it depends.  If you're going to run for an open Senate seat it may not necessarily help to have a lot of years in the House.  If, however, you're going to challenge an incumbent, more years in the House may be helpful.  It all depends on who you're running against, and where.

Well, why would having more terms help you?  It just gives your opponents more votes and stated positions and speeches to pour through.  Maybe in years where Congress doesn't have record-low popularity, being an insider isn't as bad, but still, most of the advantages of being an insider come from institutional and fundraising support, not from the image of being an insider

In a partisan state like WA, in the current national climate especially, I see no real advantage to being a respected establishment Republican.  Well, there's that one, but besides him.
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« Reply #20 on: March 13, 2010, 01:33:17 am »
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Dino Rossi seems to be having some poll success.

The first poll was done by Moore Research, an obscure GOP pollster with a terrible track record on the few polls they have done.  That was followed by two polls by Rasmussen, which conveniently helped create a "narrative."  If Murray is as weak as they claim, I wonder why Rossi has not declared yet.  It is getting very late.
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