JLT's House Predictin' Thread 2010

[JohnnyLongtorso]

2008 thread here, to see how I did (decently).

This was originally posted on the 2010 Elections board, but that was a mistake, so I'm reposting it here. The Republican list is noticeably shorter; I'd be surprised if the Democrats manage to make ten Republican districts competitive in the end.

Asterisk denotes open seat.

Seats Held By Democrats

Likely Republican Takeover (12 seats)

AR-02* (Vic Snyder)
CO-04 (Betsy Markey)
IN-08* (Brad Ellsworth)
KS-03* (Dennis Moore)
LA-03* (Charlie Melancon)
OH-01 (Steve Driehaus)
OH-15 (Mary Jo Kilroy)
MD-01 (Frank Kratovil)
NY-29* (Eric Massa)
TN-06* (Bart Gordon)
TX-17 (Chet Edwards)
VA-05 (Tom Perriello)

Lean Republican Takeover (16 seats)

AR-01* (Marion Berry)
AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell)
FL-02 (Allen Boyd)
FL-08 (Alan Grayson)
FL-24 (Suzanne Kosmas)
GA-08 (Jim Marshall)
IL-11 (Debbie Halvorson)
MI-01* (Bart Stupak)
MS-01 (Travis Childers)
ND-AL (Earl Pomeroy)
PA-03 (Kathy Dahlkemper)
PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski)
SC-05 (John Spratt)
TN-08* (John Tanner)
VA-02 (Glenn Nye)
WI-07* (Dave Obey)

Republican-Leaning Tossup (15 seats)

AZ-01 (Ann Kirkpatrick)
IL-17 (Phil Hare)
IN-09 (Baron Hill)
NV-03 (Dina Titus)
NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter)
NH-02* (Paul Hodes)
NJ-03 (John Adler)
NM-02 (Harry Teague)
OH-16 (John Boccieri)
OR-05 (Kurt Schrader)
PA-07* (Joe Sestak)
PA-08 (Patrick Murphy)
SD-AL (Stephanie Herseth Sandlin)
WA-03* (Brian Baird)
WI-08 (Steve Kagen)

Pure Tossup (21 seats)

AL-02 (Bobby Bright)
CA-11 (Jerry McNerney)
CA-20 (Jim Costa)
CO-03 (John Salazar)
FL-22 (Ron Klein)
IL-14 (Bill Foster)
MI-07 (Mark Schauer)
MO-04 (Ike Skelton)
NM-01 (Martin Heinrich)
NY-19 (John Hall)
NY-20 (Scott Murphy)
NY-23 (Bill Owens)
NY-24 (Mike Arcuri)
NC-02 (Bob Etherige)
NC-08 (Larry Kissell)
OH-18 (Zack Space)
PA-10 (Chris Carney)
TN-04 (Lincoln Davis)
TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez)
VA-09 (Rick Boucher)

Democratic-Leaning Tossup (9 seats)

AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords)
GA-02 (Sanford Bishop)
ID-01 (Walt Minnick)
MA-10* (Bill Delahunt)
MI-09 (Gary Peters)
MS-04 (Gene Taylor)
NY-01 (Tim Bishop)
VA-11 (Gerry Connolly)
WV-01* (Alan Mollohan)

Lean Democratic (14 seats)

CA-47 (Loretta Sanchez)
CO-07 (Ed Perlmutter)
CT-04 (Jim Himes)
CT-05 (Chris Murphy)
IN-02 (Joe Donnelly)
KY-06 (Ben Chandler)
MN-01 (Tim Walz)
MN-08 (Jim Oberstar)
NJ-12 (Rush Holt)
NC-07 (Mike McIntyre)
NC-11 (Heath Shuler)
OH-06 (Charlie Wilson)
PA-12 (Mark Critz)
WA-02 (Rick Larsen)

Likely Democratic (14 seats)

AZ-07 (Raul Grijalva)
CA-18 (Dennis Cardoza)
IA-01 (Bruce Braley)
IA-02 (Dave Loebsack)
KY-03 (John Yarmuth)
ME-01 (Chellie Pingree)
MO-03 (Russ Carnahan)
NY-13 (Michael McMahon)
NY-22 (Maurice Hinchey)
OH-13 (Betty Sutton)
OR-01 (David Wu)
PA-04 (Jason Altmire)
WI-03 (Ron Kind)
WV-03 (Nick Rahall)


Seats Held By Republicans

Lean Democratic Takeover (2 seats)

DE-AL* (Mike Castle)
LA-02 (Joseph Cao)

Democratic-Leaning Tossup (1 seat)

IL-10* (Mark Kirk)

Pure Tossup (2 seats)

FL-25* (Mario Diaz-Balart)
HI-01 (Charles Djou)

Lean Republican (3 seats)

AZ-03* (John Shadegg)
CA-03 (Dan Lungren)
WA-08 (Dave Reichert)

Likely Republican (5 seats)

FL-12* (Adam Putnam)
KS-04* (Todd Tiahrt)
MI-03* (Vern Ehlers)
PA-06 (Jim Gerlach)
PA-15 (Charlie Dent)

[Sam Spade]

Excellent stuff, really.  I disagree on some things, but that's expected.

[redcommander]

Really good list. I personally still think Republicans will win back the house in November.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Mostly agree, although that's not anywhere near 1994. Even if the GOP manages to win everything pure tossup and beyond, that's only +19 and not even halfway to winning the House. Also don't understand how Cao can only be "Lean Democratic" unless it's on the principle of not having any seats of the other party be anything greater than Lean.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Mostly agree, although that's not anywhere near 1994. Even if the GOP manages to win everything pure tossup and beyond, that's only +19 and not even halfway to winning the House. Also don't understand how Cao can only be "Lean Democratic" unless it's on the principle of not having any seats of the other party be anything greater than Lean.

This far out, I err on the side of caution when it comes to incumbents losing re-election; unless it's obvious there's no chance of the incumbent winning, I tend to leave it as a tossup. Once there's more quantitative data out there -- fundraising and polling are my two main determinants -- I'm sure there will be a lot more moving up the list. I even hesitate putting Bright and Minnick as Lean Takeover this early, just because it doesn't seem like they have very good opponents. Cao will probably become Likely Takeover once the Democratic field sizes up, which tends to be late in the game in Louisiana, thanks to their ridiculously-late filing deadlines.

[Senator Ben]

Really good list. I personally still think Republicans will win back the house in November.

Yes, and you think wrong.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

Democratic-Held Seats

ALL FLIPS EXCEPT KS-03

Lean Republican Takeover (6 seats)
AL-02 (Bobby Bright)
ID-01 (Walt Minnick)
KS-03* (Dennis Moore) Stays Dem.
LA-03* (Charlie Melancon)
TN-06* (Bart Gordon)
TN-08* (John Tanner)

Pure Tossup (15 seats)

AR-02 (Vic Snyder)- FLIPS
CO-04 (Betsy Markey)- FLIPS
MD-01 (Frank Kratovil)- FLIPS
MS-01 (Travis Childers)- FLIPS
NH-02* (Paul Hodes)- STAYS
NM-02 (Harry Teague)- STAYS
NY-29 (Eric Massa)- FLIPS
NC-08 (Larry Kissell)- STAYS
OH-01 (Steve Driehaus)- STAYS
OH-15 (Mary Jo Kilroy)- STAYS
PA-07* (Joe Sestak)- STAYS
PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski)- FLIPS
VA-02 (Glenn Nye)- STAYS
VA-05 (Tom Perriello)- FLIPS
WA-03* (Brian Baird)- STAYS

Lean Democratic (16 seats)

FL-08 (Alan Grayson)- STAYS
FL-22 (Ron Klein)- STAYS
FL-24 (Suzanne Kosmas)- STAYS. LOOK FOR UPSET.
IL-14 (Bill Foster)- STAYS
IN-09 (Baron Hill)- FLIPS
NV-03 (Dina Titus)- STAYS
NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter)- STAYS
NJ-03 (John Adler)- STAYS
NY-01 (Tim Bishop)- FLIPS
NY-19 (John Hall)- STAYS
NY-23 (Bill Owens)- FLIPS
NY-24 (Mike Arcuri)- FLIPS
PA-03 (Kathy Dahlkemper)- STAYS
SC-05 (John Spratt)- STAYS
TN-04 (Lincoln Davis)- STAYS
TX-17 (Chet Edwards)- STAYS

Likely Democratic (12 seats)

ALL STAYS.

AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell)
CA-11 (Jerry McNerney)
IL-11 (Debbie Halvorson)
IA-03 (Leonard Boswell)
MI-07 (Mark Schauer)
MO-04 (Ike Skelton)
NY-20 (Scott Murphy)
OH-16 (John Boccieri)
OH-18 (Zack Space)
SD-AL (Stephanie Herseth Sandlin)
VA-11 (Gerry Connolly)
WI-08 (Steve Kagen)

Democratic Watch List (21 seats)

ALL STAYS.

AZ-01 (Ann Kirkpatrick)
CA-47 (Loretta Sanchez)
CO-07 (Ed Perlmutter)
GA-02 (Sanford Bishop)
GA-08 (Jim Marshall)
GA-12 (John Barrow)
HI-01* (Neil Abercrombie)
MI-09 (Gary Peters)
MO-03 (Russ Carnahan)
NM-01 (Martin Heinrich)
NY-13 (Michael McMahon)
OR-05 (Kurt Schrader)
PA-04 (Jason Altmire)
PA-10 (Chris Carney)
PA-12 (Jack Murtha)
TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez)
UT-02 (Jim Matheson)
VA-09 (Rick Boucher)
WI-03 (Ron Kind)
WI-07 (Dave Obey)
WV-01 (Alan Mollohan)


Republican-Held Seats

Lean Democratic Takeover (2 seats)

WILL FLIP.  AGREED.

DE-AL* (Mike Castle)
LA-02 (Joseph Cao)

Pure Tossup (2 seats)
IL-10* (Mark Kirk)- FLIPS
PA-06* (Jim Gerlach)- FLIPS

Lean Republican (4 seats)
CA-03 (Dan Lungren)- STAYS
NE-02 (Lee Terry)- STAYS
PA-15 (Charlie Dent)- STAYS
WA-08 (Dave Reichert)- STAYS

Likely Republican (3 seats)

STAYS.

FL-10 (Bill Young). LOOK FOR UPSET.
KS-04* (Todd Tiahrt)
MN-06 (Michele Bachmann). WISHED IT WAS AN UPSET.

Republican Watch List (12 seats)

ALL STAYS.

AL-03 (Mike Rogers)
CA-44 (Ken Calvert)
CA-45 (Mary Bono Mack)
FL-12* (Adam Putnam)
FL-16 (Tom Rooney)
IL-13 (Judy Biggert)
MI-11 (Thad McCotter)
MN-03 (Erik Paulsen)
MO-08 (Jo Ann Emerson)
OH-02 (Jean Schmidt)
OH-12 (Pat Tiberi)- DEMS CAN GET ACT TOGETHER AND MAKE NOISE.
VA-01 (Rob Wittman)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It won't be easy for Dems to hold KS-03 when they still don't have a candidate. I think they'd need a strong Johnson County candidate to hold it, and even that's not assured, since they're facing a landslide at the top of the ticket.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It won't be easy for Dems to hold KS-03 when they still don't have a candidate. I think they'd need a strong Johnson County candidate to hold it, and even that's not assured, since they're facing a landslide at the top of the ticket.

When did Dennis Moore retire? I remember he was thought to be retiring around January but then changed his mind?

There definately will be a landslide atop the ticket with Brownback hitting 65% and hopefully Moran(but even Tiarht) getting close to 60% if not exceeding it.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Obama almost certainly carried KS-03 if I'm reading it right. It appears Wynadotte county had a slightly larger margin for Obama than Johnson did for McCain, and though we don't know how the portion of Douglas in it voted exactly, it obviously was for Obama.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It won't be easy for Dems to hold KS-03 when they still don't have a candidate. I think they'd need a strong Johnson County candidate to hold it, and even that's not assured, since they're facing a landslide at the top of the ticket.

When did Dennis Moore retire? I remember he was thought to be retiring around January but then changed his mind?

There definately will be a landslide atop the ticket with Brownback hitting 65% and hopefully Moran(but even Tiarht) getting close to 60% if not exceeding it.

Right before Thanksgiving:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/1109/Dennis_Moore_retiring.html

So far there have been several Republicans getting in (most notably State Rep. Kevin Yoder and 2008 nominee Nick Jordan) but not a single Democrat has come forward. The only ones talking about it are a current and former mayor of Kansas City.

Things are so bad for the Democrats in Kansas that this nutbag is currently their only candidate for Governor:

http://herbertwest3rd.blogspot.com/

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Obama almost certainly carried KS-03 if I'm reading it right. It appears Wynadotte county had a slightly larger margin for Obama than Johnson did for McCain, and though we don't know how the portion of Douglas in it voted exactly, it obviously was for Obama.

Yeah, Obama won it 51-48, but Wyandotte pretty much votes for any Democrat on the ballot. All the Republican has to do to win is run up a decent margin in Johnson County -- Moore's been able to hold the district because he's from Johnson County and has always done well there.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

All said, I'm at GOP +11 seats for now.

[Mr.Phips]

Why the hell did Moore retire anyway?  He could have at least waited until 2012 when Democrats would have likely had a better chance at holding the seat. 

One district that I am interested in is OH-01.  The district voted heavily for Obama and came within 3,000 votes of going for John Kerry and should be reasonably safe for a moderate Democrat like Driehaus.  If he can pile up a 10,000 vote lead in the Democratic leaning Cincinatti/Hamilton part of the district, it will be more than enough to offset any margin that  Chabot gets in the heavily Republican chunk of Butler county in the district. 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Why the hell did Moore retire anyway?  He could have at least waited until 2012 when Democrats would have likely had a better chance at holding the seat. 

One district that I am interested in is OH-01.  The district voted heavily for Obama and came within 3,000 votes of going for John Kerry and should be reasonably safe for a moderate Democrat like Driehaus.  If he can pile up a 10,000 vote lead in the Democratic leaning Cincinatti/Hamilton part of the district, it will be more than enough to offset any margin that  Chabot gets in the heavily Republican chunk of Butler county in the district. 

Moore probably saw some bad polling numbers. It's not really a surprise -- he's been voting the Democratic party line this year, which I think is the first time he's ever done that.

OH-01 would be an easy hold for Driehaus if Chabot weren't running again. Normally, incumbents don't do well in two year later rematches, but if the climate is good enough for the Republicans, Chabot could very well make a David Price/Ted Strickland-esque comeback. I'd put his chances below Pearce's, though.

[Mr.Phips]

Why the hell did Moore retire anyway?  He could have at least waited until 2012 when Democrats would have likely had a better chance at holding the seat. 

One district that I am interested in is OH-01.  The district voted heavily for Obama and came within 3,000 votes of going for John Kerry and should be reasonably safe for a moderate Democrat like Driehaus.  If he can pile up a 10,000 vote lead in the Democratic leaning Cincinatti/Hamilton part of the district, it will be more than enough to offset any margin that  Chabot gets in the heavily Republican chunk of Butler county in the district. 

Moore probably saw some bad polling numbers. It's not really a surprise -- he's been voting the Democratic party line this year, which I think is the first time he's ever done that.

OH-01 would be an easy hold for Driehaus if Chabot weren't running again. Normally, incumbents don't do well in two year later rematches, but if the climate is good enough for the Republicans, Chabot could very well make a David Price/Ted Strickland-esque comeback. I'd put his chances below Pearce's, though.

I think Chabot is probably the only Republican in a House race that could still be successful tied to Bush.  Chabot voted with Bush almost 100% of the time for eight years and this along with literature aimed at black voters saying that if Chabot wins and Republicans take the House, Obama will be impeached, should be enough to save Driehaus. 

[So the Heroes Fall]

Chabot was an impeachment manager for Clinton too.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Why the hell did Moore retire anyway?  He could have at least waited until 2012 when Democrats would have likely had a better chance at holding the seat. 

One district that I am interested in is OH-01.  The district voted heavily for Obama and came within 3,000 votes of going for John Kerry and should be reasonably safe for a moderate Democrat like Driehaus.  If he can pile up a 10,000 vote lead in the Democratic leaning Cincinatti/Hamilton part of the district, it will be more than enough to offset any margin that  Chabot gets in the heavily Republican chunk of Butler county in the district. 

I just love the responses congrescritters give when asked that. Moore's was "Time for a new generation of leadership"

[Smash255]

Really good list. I personally still think Republicans will win back the house in November.

The fact you have NY-4 as one of the seats will flip throws your credibility out the window.

[Mr.Phips]

Really good list. I personally still think Republicans will win back the house in November.

The fact you have NY-4 as one of the seats will flip throws your credibility out the window.

Tell me about it.  Even John Kerry won that district by double digits. 

[Cobalt]

Democratic-Held Seats

Lean Republican Takeover (6 seats)
AL-02 (Bobby Bright) Flip
ID-01 (Walt Minnick) Flip
KS-03* (Dennis Moore) Flip
LA-03* (Charlie Melancon) Flip
TN-06* (Bart Gordon) Flip
TN-08* (John Tanner) Flip

Pure Tossup (15 seats)

AR-02 (Vic Snyder) Flip
CO-04 (Betsy Markey) Stay
MD-01 (Frank Kratovil) Flip
MS-01 (Travis Childers) Stay
NH-02* (Paul Hodes) Flip
NM-02 (Harry Teague) Flip
NY-29 (Eric Massa) Flip
NC-08 (Larry Kissell) Flip
OH-01 (Steve Driehaus) Flip
OH-15 (Mary Jo Kilroy) Flip
PA-07* (Joe Sestak) Stay
PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski) Flip
VA-02 (Glenn Nye) Stay
VA-05 (Tom Perriello) Flip
WA-03* (Brian Baird) Flip

Lean Democratic (16 seats)

FL-08 (Alan Grayson) Stay
FL-22 (Ron Klein) Stay
FL-24 (Suzanne Kosmas) Flip
IL-14 (Bill Foster) Stay
IN-09 (Baron Hill) Stay
NV-03 (Dina Titus) Stay
NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter) Flip
NJ-03 (John Adler) Stay
NY-01 (Tim Bishop) Stay
NY-19 (John Hall) Flip
NY-23 (Bill Owens) Flip
NY-24 (Mike Arcuri) Flip
PA-03 (Kathy Dahlkemper) Stay
SC-05 (John Spratt) Stay (unless it becomes an open seat)
TN-04 (Lincoln Davis) Stay (same as Spratt's seat)
TX-17 (Chet Edwards) Stay

Likely Democratic (12 seats)

AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell) Stay
CA-11 (Jerry McNerney) Stay
IL-11 (Debbie Halvorson)  Stay
IA-03 (Leonard Boswell)  Stay
MI-07 (Mark Schauer)  Stay
MO-04 (Ike Skelton) Stay
NY-20 (Scott Murphy)  Stay (unless Treadwell runs)
OH-16 (John Boccieri)  Stay
OH-18 (Zack Space)  Stay
SD-AL (Stephanie Herseth Sandlin) Flip
VA-11 (Gerry Connolly) Stay
WI-08 (Steve Kagen) Flip (upset)

Democratic Watch List (21 seats)

AZ-01 (Ann Kirkpatrick) Stay
CA-47 (Loretta Sanchez) Stay (but watch for upset)
CO-07 (Ed Perlmutter) Stay (but watch for upset)
GA-02 (Sanford Bishop) Stay
GA-08 (Jim Marshall) Stay
GA-12 (John Barrow) Stay
HI-01* (Neil Abercrombie) Stay (although Djou might win the special and serve out the 111th)
MI-09 (Gary Peters) Stay
MO-03 (Russ Carnahan) Stay
NM-01 (Martin Heinrich) Stay
NY-13 (Michael McMahon) Stay
OR-05 (Kurt Schrader) Stay
PA-04 (Jason Altmire) Stay (unless Buchanan runs)
PA-10 (Chris Carney) Stay
PA-12 (Jack Murtha) Flip
TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez) Stay
UT-02 (Jim Matheson) Stay
VA-09 (Rick Boucher) Stay
WI-03 (Ron Kind) Stay
WI-07 (Dave Obey) Stay
WV-01 (Alan Mollohan) Stay


Republican-Held Seats

Lean Democratic Takeover (2 seats)
DE-AL* (Mike Castle) Flip
LA-02 (Joseph Cao) Flip

Pure Tossup (2 seats)
IL-10* (Mark Kirk) Flip
PA-06* (Jim Gerlach) Flip

Everything below this line stays

Lean Republican (4 seats)
CA-03 (Dan Lungren)
NE-02 (Lee Terry)
PA-15 (Charlie Dent)
WA-08 (Dave Reichert)

Likely Republican (3 seats)

FL-10 (Bill Young)
KS-04* (Todd Tiahrt)
MN-06 (Michele Bachmann)

Republican Watch List (12 seats)

AL-03 (Mike Rogers)
CA-44 (Ken Calvert)
CA-45 (Mary Bono Mack)
FL-12* (Adam Putnam)
FL-16 (Tom Rooney)
IL-13 (Judy Biggert)
MI-11 (Thad McCotter)
MN-03 (Erik Paulsen)
MO-08 (Jo Ann Emerson)
OH-02 (Jean Schmidt)
OH-12 (Pat Tiberi)
VA-01 (Rob Wittman)

[Zarn]

Dems keep NJ-3? Unlikely.

Nearly impossible in a Republican year.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Dems keep NJ-3? Unlikely.

Nearly impossible in a Republican year.

Please show me some polling data to that effect. His opponent is a football player who isn't even living in New Jersey right now.

[Zarn]

Dems keep NJ-3? Unlikely.

Nearly impossible in a Republican year.

Please show me some polling data to that effect. His opponent is a football player who isn't even living in New Jersey right now.

Adler won this area by significantly less than Obama won it. Its also Saxton's old district. Adler's in deep trouble, if this year is a Republican year.

[Former Moderate]

The only seemingly relevant polling that's been going on in NJ-03 was the one on Election Day 2009. Most ideas of Adler being vulnerable stem from the facts that (1) Christie won the district by 17 points, (2) Runyan is able to self-finance to the extent needed to make the race competitive, and (3) 2010 looks to be a Republican year, especially in places with a significantly large Republican base.