The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...

[Franzl]

This whole Stronach thing is just ridiculous.

[Tender Branson]

This whole Stronach thing is just ridiculous.

It will probably fade away anyway like the Pirates during the election campaign when voters notice that he has no plan, just a few talking points. But there are 2 things that could keep him at a high level: money and TV presence. He know has his own parliamentary club, which means he is automatically in the TV debates and "meet the press" segments of the ORF.

[Tender Branson]

New "Profil" poll:

27% SPÖ
24% ÖVP
21% FPÖ
13% Greens
10% Stronach
  2% BZÖ
  3% Others

Direct vote for Chancellor:

18% Faymann
15% Spindelegger
11% Strache
  7% Stronach
  6% Glawischnig

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20121117_OTS0009/profil-umfrage-fpoe-klar-auf-platz-drei

[Tender Branson]

F**k:



Hopefully Spindelegger won't be soooo crazy ...

[Tender Branson]

New state elections poll for my home state Salzburg by "IGF (Institut für Grundlagenforschung)":



Trust ratings for the main Salzburg politicians:



http://www.salzburger-fenster.at/redaktion/aktuelle_berichte/sf_umfrage_so_steht_es_im_land_spoe_38_oevp_37_fpoe_12_gruene_10_art1992/

[Tender Branson]

Tomorrow is the last Austrian election of 2012: The Graz city council election.

The ÖVP will be clearly first, but the Communists could surprise and come in 2nd (actually it's a tough 4-way battle for 2nd place between SPÖ, KPÖ, Greens and FPÖ).

Here is the trend chart of the latest polls:



And here are the results from 2008:

[Tender Branson]

It looks like the ÖVP commissioned an "exit poll" from the voters who voted early at the early voting Friday from a week ago. Only 8.000 people voted then, and according to the ÖVP poll, The Communists got 20% ...

You should take this poll with a ton of salt though because A) the ÖVP probably wants to piss off the SPÖ by boosting the Communist share and B) only 8.000 people voted out of more than 100.000.

But maybe the Communists are really getting close to the results of Ernest Kaltenegger again, while the SPÖ and Greens will have a bad result. We will now more tomorrow.

http://kurier.at/politik/inland/graz-waehlt-der-kuriose-kampf-um-platz-zwei/1.393.246

[Tender Branson]

This is why the Communists are so popular in Graz (article is from 2009, but this is still the reason):

Styrian KPÖ gives to poor

By Lisa Chapman

The Styrian Communist Party (KPÖ) reported yesterday (Mon) in its traditional "Day of Open Accounts" it had given 163,897.64 Euros to the poor in 2009.

Graz KPÖ councillor Elke Kahr said the money had helped 1,311 needy people in the province.

She added that KPÖ officials at local and provincial levels had contributed a total of 965,184.87 Euros to 6,683 poor people since the inception of the charitable programme in 1998 by current KPÖ provincial whip Ernest Kaltenegger.

Kahr added elected KPÖ officials had an income limit of 2,000 Euros a month, which meant that 50 per cent of provincial deputies and municipal councillors’ incomes went into the party’s social fund.

The party gives money from the social fund to large families, single parents and pensioners in need.

Kahr said around 62,000 Euros had been spent on such daily needs as school materials, food and medications, around 48,000 had gone to help the needy pay their rent, and 14,500 Euros had been used to help the poor pay their energy bills this year.

KPÖ provincial deputy Claudia Klimt-Weithaler called for creation of a "social ombudsman" in Styria to help the poor.

Kaltenegger, who started the party’s social fund, had said last March he would retire from politics in 2010 for health reasons.

Kaltenegger, 59, who has been chiefly responsible for Communist electoral gains in Graz and at provincial level in recent years, said it was time for new blood after his three years in parliament.

He said a party congress would choose his successor and the party’s chief candidate in the autumn 2010 provincial election. He added he would not run again for a seat in parliament.

http://www.austriantimes.at/news/General_News/2009-12-29/19202/Styrian_KP%D6_gives_to_poor

[Tender Branson]

New TT/Karmasin poll for the upcoming Tirol state elections:

39% ÖVP
16% Greens
15% SPÖ
10% FPÖ
  7% Stronach
  7% Dinkhauser
  2% Gurgiser
  2% Pirates
  1% BZÖ   
  1% For Tyrol
  0% KPÖ



http://www.tt.com/Nachrichten/5741284-2/stronach-wirbelt-die-tiroler-polit-landschaft-durcheinander.csp

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup/Ö24 poll:





http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/SPOe-legt-zu-Team-Stronach-verliert/86096091

[Tender Branson]

I'll try a prediction for Graz:

37% ÖVP
19% KPÖ
14% SPÖ
12% FPÖ
11% Greens
  4% Pirates
  1% BZÖ
  2% Others

Probably a lot of SPÖ and Green voters will defect to the Communists.

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian Intrade sees the following:

Wie viele Stimmen (in %) erhalten die Parteien bei den Gemeinderatswahlen in Graz 2012?

ÖVP    34,65 %
KPÖ    17,49 %
SPÖ    14,21 %
FPÖ    11,36 %
Grüne    11,20 %
Others    11,09 %

http://www.wahlfieber.at/de_du/markt/A-12-GZ--gemeinderatswahlen-in-graz-2012

[Tender Branson]

It looks like SORA is doing an official ORF Exit Poll for Graz today at 5pm:

http://www.sora.at/themen/wahlverhalten/wahlanalysen/hochrechnungen/hr-grw-graz12.html

And I thought SORA was bankrupt ... Apparently not.

[Tender Branson]

Anyone else want to try a Graz prediction ?

[Tender Branson]

Turnout in Graz seems to be higher than in 2008, when it was about 60%.

Hopefully, KPÖ+SPÖ+Greens will get 50% or more.

It would be nice somehow if Graz got a Communist mayor ...

[Tender Branson]

Results (will be posted starting at about 17:45):

http://wahl12.graz.at/ergebnisse/gr60101.html

[Tender Branson]

Wow, look at that SPÖ-trend:



They could end up with about 15% today ...

[Niemeyerite]

My prediction:


38% ÖVP
20% KPÖ
14% FPÖ
12% SPÖ
11% Greens
3% Pirates
1% BZÖ
1% Others

[Tender Branson]

Early voting results (the Friday a week ago was an early voting day, in which about 9.000 people voted):

ÖVP: 36 %, SPÖ: 13 %, Grüne: 15 %, KPÖ: 18 %, FPÖ: 12 %, BZÖ: 3 %, Piraten: 2 %.

Of course this is only 6-7% of the expected total vote.

http://www.kleinezeitung.at/steiermark/graz/grazwahl/3173201/so-haben-morgen-wahl.story

[Franzl]

Why should anyone really care about Graz local elections?

[Tender Branson]

Early results from the election day precincts suggest that the Communists and Elke Kahr (the woman pictured in my sig) had a BIG day.

[Tender Branson]

Why should anyone really care about Graz local elections?

Because it could get a Communist mayor, the first Communist mayor in any of the 9 state capitals and a Communist mayor in the 2nd biggest city in Austria ...

[Franzl]

Why should anyone really care about Graz local elections?

Because it could get a Communist mayor, the first Communist mayor in any of the 9 state capitals and a Communist mayor in the 2nd biggest city in Austria ...

Really communist....or communist in party name only? (Pardon my ignorance)

[Tender Branson]

In the 29 precincts ("Sprengel") already counted (out of 268), the KPÖ gains 11% compared with the previous election ...

[Tender Branson]

Why should anyone really care about Graz local elections?

Because it could get a Communist mayor, the first Communist mayor in any of the 9 state capitals and a Communist mayor in the 2nd biggest city in Austria ...

Really communist....or communist in party name only? (Pardon my ignorance)

It's more of a localist hard-left thing, with a populist tone (Graz city politicians get about 4000€ a month, and the Communists donate about 2000€ of that to poor people). They also focus a lot on affordable housing etc.