The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...

[Tender Branson]

With only 2 cities left, the new seat projection is:

SPÖ: 19 seats (nc) - absolute majority
ÖVP: 13 seats (nc)
FPÖ: 3 seats (+1)
LBL: 1 seat (+1)
Greens: no seat (-2)

[Tender Branson]

Final results (excl. postal votes):

SPÖ: 83.955 votes - 48.55% (-3.63%, 18 seats, -1 seat)
ÖVP: 59.082 votes - 34.17% (-2.21%, 13 seats, no change)
FPÖ: 16.076 votes - 9.30% (+3.55%, 4 seats, +2 seats)
LBL: 6.967 votes - 4.03% (+4.03%, 1 seat, +1 seat)
Greens: 6.844 votes - 3.96% (-1.25%, no seats, -2 seats)

Total eligible voters: 248.713
Total votes cast: 176.018
Valid votes cast: 172.924
Turnout: 70.77% (-10.61%)

I guess postal votes will push turnout to about 75-78%.

I also guess postal votes will push the Greens above 4% and therefore the seat from the LBL will switch to the Greens, as the ÖVP and Greens always do well in postal vote counts.

[Tender Branson]

First data from the Burgenland Exit Poll by SORA:

Under 30-voters:

ÖVP: 37%
SPÖ: 29%
FPÖ: 23%
Greens: 10%

Over 60-voters:

SPÖ: 58%
ÖVP: 35%

Women:

SPÖ: 56%
ÖVP: 32%

Men:

SPÖ: 40%
ÖVP: 38%
FPÖ: 16%

That is a continued trend, young male voters are strongest for the FPÖ, old women voters are strongest for the SPÖ.

For example, about 30% of young male voters voted for Barbara Rosenkranz as President, but only 15% of the population did so.

[Tender Branson]

About 70% of postal votes have been counted yesterday. The remaining will be counted until tomorrow.

The already counted postal votes led to an increase in ÖVP and Green support (as it always does) and therefore 1 seat switched from the FPÖ to the Greens.

New result:

SPÖ: 48.42% (18 seats)
ÖVP: 34.48% (13 seats)
FPÖ: 9.04% (3 seats)
Greens: 4.06% (1 seat)
LBL: 4.00% (1 seat)

I guess the LBL will eventually fall below the 4% treshold and their seat will fall to the FPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

2 interesting charts:




http://www.sora.at/themen/wahlverhalten/wahlanalysen/ltw-bgld10.html

[Tender Branson]

When it comes to the October Vienna State Elections, the Young Liberals (JuLis) will run against the Liberal Forum (LIF). The main difference between them is the fact that the Young Liberals are FDP-near folks and oppose state intervention into economic relations, while the LIF is supporting it. The Young Liberals are almost all students and their frontrunner is Nikolaus Scherak (23). The LIF will be headed by Angelika Mlinar (40). Both of these parties are left-liberal. And then there`s also the BZÖ and the FBZ, which are right-liberal. Josef Bucher of the BZÖ has asked the LIF and the JuLis to form a joint Liberal list for the elections, but they declined. I guess that BZÖ/FBZ/LIF/JuLis won`t get more than 3-5% combined.

[Tender Branson]

Final Burgenland state election results:

SPÖ: 91.185 votes - 48.26% (-3.92%, 18 seats, -1 seat)
ÖVP: 65.411 votes - 34.62% (-1.76%, 13 seats, no change)
FPÖ: 16.970 votes - 8.98% (+3.23%, 3 seats, +1 seat)
Greens: 7.835 votes - 4.15% (-1.06%, 1 seat, -1 seat)
LBL: 7.559 votes - 4.00% (+4.00%, 1 seat, +1 seat)

Total eligible voters: 248.694
Total votes cast: 192.246
Valid votes cast: 188.960
Turnout: 77.30% (-4.08%)

If you look through the results you will notice that the LBL secured its seat by a single (!!!) vote.

4% of 188.960 means exactly 7.558,4 votes and the LBL got 7.559 votes ...

[Tender Branson]

Maps:

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile, unemployment was decreasing by a faster pace in May:



A total of 227.089 were unemployed, which is down by 5.3% compared with May 2009.

Every state except Vienna saw the number of unemployed falling.

The national unemployment rate decreased from 6.9% in May 2009 to 6.3% in May 2010.

The Eurostat unemployment rate was 4.9% in April 2010.

[Tender Branson]

In a new study by IMAS, 1055 Austrians aged 16+ were asked how they identify with various words. They had to state if the words are congenial or uncongenial:

Security: 69-2
Justice: 65-2
Orderliness: 61-4
Work: 56-3
Patriotism: 52-4
Equality: 51-6
Stability: 48-2
Co-decision/influence: 48-3
Independence: 47-2
Saving: 44-9
Growth: 43-4
Modern: 40-5
Referendum: 37-8
Pursuit of Accomplishment: 24-16
Christian: 24-14
Competition: 20-10
Advertisement: 20-17
Reforms: 20-18
Unions: 18-16

Multicultural: 17-25
Church: 17-28
European Union: 15-29
Consumption renouncement: 11-26
Globalisation: 10-27
Genetical Science: 8-38
Strike measures: 6-34
Foreigners: 6-38
Officialdom: 5-30
Capitalism: 5-36
Nuclear Energy: 4-48
Islam: 3-50

http://www.imas.at/content/download/573/2722/version/1/file/13-2010.pdf

[Tender Branson]

New Vienna state elections poll by Gallup for Ö24:

SPÖ: 44% (-5%)
FPÖ: 22% (+7%)
ÖVP: 18% (-1%)
Greens: 13% (-2%)
Others (Various liberal parties such as LIF, JULIS, BZÖ, FBZ as well as KPÖ and SLP): 3%

Direct vote for Mayor:

Michael Häupl (SPÖ-Incumbent): 49%
Heinz-Christian Strache (FPÖ): 19%
Christine Marek (ÖVP): 16%
Maria Vassilakou (Greens): 14%
Others: 2%

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Wienwahl-Landtagswahl-SPOe-verliert-absolute-Mehrheit-0720169.ece

The SPÖ would lose its absolute majority and would have to enter either a SPÖ-Green coalition or a Grand Coalition of SPÖ and ÖVP.

[Tender Branson]

3 new Styria state election polls by

Gallup for Ö24:

SPÖ: 39%
ÖVP: 38%
FPÖ: 9%
KPÖ: 6%
Greens: 6%
BZÖ: 2%

Direct vote for Governor:

Franz Voves (SPÖ): 49%
Hermann Schützenhöfer (ÖVP): 37%

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20100614_OTS0001/oesterreich-umfrage-sp-fuehrt-in-der-steiermark

Fessel-GfK for the Styria ÖVP:

ÖVP: 37-39%
SPÖ: 37-39%
FPÖ: 8-9%
Greens: 7-8%
KPÖ: 2-3%

http://steiermark.orf.at/stories/449115/

mResearch for Frontal:

ÖVP: 41%
SPÖ: 35%

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/572887/index.do

[Tender Branson]

New Styria state elections poll by Market for "Standard":

ÖVP: 39% (nc)
SPÖ: 38% (-4)
FPÖ: 8% (+3)
Greens: 7% (+2)
KPÖ: 5% (-1)
BZÖ: 3% (+1)

Direct vote for Governor:

Voves (SPÖ): 35%
Schützenhöfer (ÖVP): 25%

Federal elections in Styria:

ÖVP: 28% (+2)
SPÖ: 24% (-5)
FPÖ: 21% (+4)
Greens: 12% (+3)
BZÖ: 9% (-4)
Others: 6% (nc)

http://derstandard.at/1276413054355/DER-STANDARD-Umfrage-Steirer-wuerden-Voves-waehlen---und-die-OeVP

[Tender Branson]

A victory for the hardliners (Fekter, FPÖ & BZÖ):

Kosovo family loses final appeal to stay in Austria

A Kosovar family whose efforts to stay in Austria had become a cause celebre, with even the president supporting their case, lost yesterday their final appeal against a refusal to grant them asylum.

Austria’s highest court, the constitutional court, ruled against the Zogaj family, which entered the country illegally in 2002 but had since integrated well into the country.

“Those who don’t leave by themselves will be deported by the police,” Interior Minister Maria Fekter said after the ruling was handed down, although the deadline for Zogaj family to leave the country has yet to be set.

The Zogaj’s plight attracted nationwide attention and sympathy when in 2007 one of the family’s teenage girls, Arigona, ran away for two weeks following the deportation of her father and four siblings. She threatened to commit suicide in a video pleading to stay in Austria.

Arigona, now 18, was allowed to finish her schooling in Austria, and the family continued its legal battle to remain in the country permanently.

Numerous personalities have taken up the family’s cause, including President Heinz Fischer and Vienna’s Archbishop Christoph Schoenborn, who urged the family be given a residence permit on humanitarian grounds.

http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/article.asp?cu_no=2&item_no=368189&version=1&template_id=39&parent_id=21

[Tender Branson]

Latest Karmasin Motivforschung poll for "Profil":

33%  (+4%)  SPÖ
33%  (+7%)  ÖVP
20%  (+2%)  FPÖ
11%  (+1%)  Greens
  2%  (-9%)   BZÖ
  1%  (-5%)   Others

Direct vote for Chancellor:

25% Faymann (SPÖ)
24% Pröll (ÖVP)
  8% Strache (FPÖ)
  7% Glawischnig (Greens)

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20100619_OTS0014/profil-umfrage-spoe-und-oevp-gleichauf-faymann-ueberholt-proell

72% of Austrians also favor the introduction of a wealth tax, with 18% opposed. In 2009, there were about 40.000 millionaires in Austria, a rise of more than 10% compared with 2008.

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20100619_OTS0013/profil-72-der-oesterreicher-fuer-vermoegenssteuern

[Tender Branson]

Will Canori's KFPÖ be disaffiliated from the FPÖ?

I doubt it. They are in a bad situation right now. Most of the KFPÖ hates the members of the now FPK and the proposed KBZÖ and don`t want to integrate into the larger FPK. Should be interesting what they decide to do. I think the most likely scenario will be a clear word of action from federal FPÖ-leader Strache, that if they don`t integrate into the FPK, the federal FPÖ will dry up the funds for the local party or whatever.

Exactly that happened yesterday when Strache and Scheuch signed a contract to fuse. The KFPÖ-boss Jannach, who took over after Canori failed to get more than 5% and into parliament, was axed yesterday by Strache and stepped down. Therefore the KFPÖ re-united with the FPK and will run a same list in elections, as FPK in state elections and FPÖ in federal elections.

There`s also a new federal Market/Standard poll:

28% ÖVP
27% SPÖ
24% FPÖ

http://derstandard.at/1276413573686/Umfrage-Am-Land-ist-vor-allem-der-Hauptmann-wichtig

[Tender Branson]

New Carinthia state elections poll by Gallup for the newspaper "Woche":

FPK: 31% (+27%)
SPÖ: 31% (+2%)
ÖVP: 22% (+5%)
Greens: 8% (+3%)
BZÖ: 8% (-37%)

Direct vote for Governor:

Gerhard Dörfler (FPK-Inc.): 36%
Josef Martinz (ÖVP): 30%
Peter Kaiser (SPÖ): 27%
Rolf Holub (Greens): 7%

http://regionaut.woche.at/klagenfurt/politik/blaurot-gleichauf-vp-and-gruen-legen-zu-d8259.html

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile, the Austrian SPÖVP government has achieved something, before they go on summer vacation: The introduction of a demand-oriented basic income, starting on Sept. 1 (which was backed by the SPÖ) and the introduction of a transparancy account for every Austrian citizen, so she/he can see online how much of the gross wage is transferred as taxes to the government and how much one gets back from the state or government in forms of benefits (child benefits, commuter benefits, state benefits such as as housing and construction benefits etc.) That was backed by the ÖVP.

The basic income will be about 1000$ each month for every single-citizen and about 1400$ a month for couples. For every child in the family you get another 200$ a month. This basic income will only be available to Austrian citizens, EU-citizens who work in Austria and foreigners, who have at least worked 5 years in Austria. Asylum seekers and other foreigners are not getting it. That also means that unemployed persons will get at least 1000$ each month from September on. Until now, it did depend on how much you earned in your latest job and then you would get about 60-80% of what you earned. That was bad for part-time workers or low-wage workers. Another good thing is that now 100% of Austrian citizens will have health insurance, up from about 99% before that. For the basic income to be granted, one has to accept job offers from the Labor Agency, otherwise the basic income will be cut by 50% or, if someone repeatedly refuses to take the work offered by the Labor Agencies, it will be cut completely. So, it won´t be a "social hammock" ...

[Tender Branson]

Unemployment is now going down sharply, according to the new June figures:

212.753 people were unemployed, which is down by 7.3% compared with June 2009.

Styria and Salzburg had the biggest decline with 16.9% and 16.4%, while Vienna only saw a decrease of 0.8%.

Unemployment rates by state (national method, not ILO/Eurostat):

Salzburg: 3.8% (-0.7%)
Upper Austria: 3.8% (-0.4%)
Tyrol: 5.0% (-0.5%)
Styria: 5.6% (-1.1%)
Lower Austria: 6.0% (-0.3%)
Burgenland: 6.0% (-0.8%)
Vorarlberg: 6.3% (-0.6%)
Carinthia: 6.4% (-0.8%)
Vienna: 8.1% (nc)

Austria: 5.9% (-0.4%)

[Tender Branson]

The new quarterly federal debt numbers are also out and it seems Austria is in much better shape than many other Western European nations:

Q1 2010 debt: 66.6% of GDP
Q1 2009 debt: 66.4% of GDP

http://www.statistik.at/web_en/statistics/Public_finance_taxes/maastricht_edp_indicators/government_debt/029318.html

Of course this is up from the record low of 59.5% in Q4 of 2007, but it is way lower than the record high so far in Q2 2005, with 71.8%.

Many economists and research centers predicted 80% debt for Austria last year, but that´s not going to happen. And when compared with countries like Ireland, the UK or Spain where debt increased from 30% to 100% of GDP in the last year, it looks even better.

Also, with the better unemployment and employment numbers, the Budget deficit should be lower than the 4.7%, more in the 4% range, which is also among the best in Europe.

Remember when Paul Krugman argued that Austria`s going bankrupt ... ?

[Tender Branson]

Karl Schwab, one of the coolest/funniest FPÖ MP`s is stepping down ...

Take a look:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?hl=en&v=mQHpkwuwZ3E

[Tender Branson]

New ATV Austria Trend poll by Peter Hajek`s Public Opinion Strategies (1000 Austrians aged 16+ between June 15-22, MoE = 3.1%):

ÖVP: 34% (+8%)
SPÖ: 32% (+3%)
FPÖ: 20% (+2%)
Greens: 9% (-1%)
BZÖ: 3% (-8%)
Others: 2% (-4%)

Direct vote for Chancellor:

Werner Faymann (SPÖ): 24%
Josef Pröll (ÖVP): 22%
H.C. Strache (FPÖ): 9%
Eva Glawischnig (Greens): 5%
Josef Bucher (BZÖ): 3%
None of them/Undecided: 37%

http://atv.at/binaries/asset/download_assets/982813/file

[Tender Branson]

Latest Styria state elections poll by IMAS for the "Kronen Zeitung":

39%  (-3)  SPÖ
39%  (nc)  ÖVP
  7%  (+2) FPÖ
  6%  (nc)  KPÖ
  5%  (nc)  Greens
  2%  (nc)  BZÖ
  2%  (nc)  Others

http://www.krone.at/Steiermark/Kopf-an-Kopf-Rennen_39_Prozent_Rot._39_Prozent_Schwarz-Heisser_Wahlkampf-Story-208792

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile, the Austrian SPÖVP government has achieved something, before they go on summer vacation: The introduction of a demand-oriented basic income, starting on Sept. 1 (which was backed by the SPÖ) and the introduction of a transparancy account for every Austrian citizen, so she/he can see online how much of the gross wage is transferred as taxes to the government and how much one gets back from the state or government in forms of benefits (child benefits, commuter benefits, state benefits such as as housing and construction benefits etc.) That was backed by the ÖVP.

The basic income will be about 1000$ each month for every single-citizen and about 1400$ a month for couples. For every child in the family you get another 200$ a month. This basic income will only be available to Austrian citizens, EU-citizens who work in Austria and foreigners, who have at least worked 5 years in Austria. Asylum seekers and other foreigners are not getting it. That also means that unemployed persons will get at least 1000$ each month from September on. Until now, it did depend on how much you earned in your latest job and then you would get about 60-80% of what you earned. That was bad for part-time workers or low-wage workers. Another good thing is that now 100% of Austrian citizens will have health insurance, up from about 99% before that. For the basic income to be granted, one has to accept job offers from the Labor Agency, otherwise the basic income will be cut by 50% or, if someone repeatedly refuses to take the work offered by the Labor Agencies, it will be cut completely. So, it won´t be a "social hammock" ...

My state - Salzburg - will be even more social than other states when it comes to granting the new basic income starting on September 1.

The federal law states that the basic income of 750€ has to be payed at least 12 times a year, contrary to 14 wages (incl. holiday and christmas pay) that a regular employee gets.

Most states will pay the basic income only 12 times, Upper Austria 13 times and Salzburg will pay it 14 times. Additionally, families with kids will get payed more by 3% for each kid than the federal law mandates and get an additional 100€ each month.

Single parents will get 80€ more per kid than what other states will pay.

"Hard cases", which means people who have been on basic income for a longer period will be helped out with a social worker which will help them integrate into the labor market again.

Yes, my state can do this, because we are richer than the other states, have the lowest unemployment, higher tax revenues and a low deficit.

[Tender Branson]

Fischer backs army as second term starts



Heinz Fischer has spoken out in support of keeping Austria’s compulsory military service, as he was sworn in as president on Thursday.

The former Social Democratic (SPÖ) science minister highlighted Austria’s participation in various international peace-keeping missions, adding that the army and conscription were part of the country’s constitution.

Fischer was sworn in as federal president at the parliament in Vienna after garnering almost 80 per cent in the election last April. This will be his second term as president after serving his first since 2004. Austrian law has it that the second term will be his last.

SPÖ Defence Minister Norbert Darabos said he agreed with Fischer’s views. Darabos claimed the six-month military service has proved to be a "full success". The minister described the Austrian regulations as "excellent".

These statements come weeks after Sweden decided to ditch its obligatory military service, while the German government is continuing to debate the issue and decide whether to follow European Union (EU) member state’s examples to cut costs.

The Austrian army’s reputation has meanwhile suffered dramatically. The Federal Audit Office (RH) recently appealed for more investments as several barracks posed a danger to soldiers’ health due to the bad hygienic state they were in.

The Austrian president is the army’s commander in chief, but the position’s overall role is a mostly representative one with little political power.

Fischer also appealed to political leaders in Carinthia to "quickly" solve the ongoing conflict about bilingual place-name signs in towns with Slovenian residents. He claimed everyone would benefit from a solution, adding that prejudices and hostile feelings among people needed to be abandoned.

Gerhard Dörfler, Carinthian Freedom Party (FPK) Governor said he was "surprised" about the president’s appeal. He said: "(SPÖ) Chancellor (Werner) Faymann is the political personality in charge of the issue. He only recently expressed the wish to find a solution by 2012. This is what I’m considering."

The right-wing Freedom Party (FPÖ) enraged representatives of the Slovenian minority today by announcing it would like to "withdraw" the applause of its leaders given when Fischer expressed his wish for a quick solution to the conflict in the southern province in his speech yesterday.

Most newspapers meanwhile expressed doubts over whether the president’s appeal will have any impact. Some columnists have criticised Fischer for being too reluctant and not outspoken enough throughout his political career, while others praise his ability to "build bridges" between opponents and find compromises.

http://www.austriantimes.at/news/General_News/2010-07-09/24901/Fischer_backs_army_as_second_term_starts