The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...

[MaxQue]

KPO is a "reformed" communist party or an old style one?

[Tender Branson]

What's the fixation in Styria with the KPO?

They received 6.3% of the vote in Styria in 2005, and entered the state parliament for the first time since 1970. And the KPO received 20.75% in the Graz local elections in 2005.

In the rest of Austria the KPO is lucky to receive 1% of the vote.

Again, why is the KPO stronger in the Styrian landtag than everywhere else in Austria? And why is the KPO so strong in Graz?

It's not like Styria or Graz were formerly part of the DDR. Then these results would be understandable.

It has more to do with the person of Ernest Kaltenegger, who was seen as one of the most trusted politicians in Styria. Kaltenegger was not a typical politician, but a charismatic one who refused to accept more than 1500€ a month of pay and gave the rest of his monthly pay to people in Graz who needed it (for example to people who couldn´t afford to pay rents, homeless shelters etc.)

Then, after he got 20% in Graz and more than 6% in the state elections, the Communists also got more money to run their campaigns, that´s why the KPÖ will always be better positioned in Styria than elsewhere in Austria. Claudia Klimt-Weithaler, who followed Kaltenegger as party chair and is also a likeable person, is continuing his legacy.

Also, many blue-collar workers in Northern Styria's steel plants do not see the SPÖ as a real left force that´s working for the Arbeiter anymore, but they see the SPÖVP as just 2 sides of a coin, in bed with the corporates. These folks also don´t trust the Greens as a credible leftist alternative, because their focus isn´t on the workers side either, but more on how many more foreigners they can bring into the country. These folks also tend to support the FPÖ.

So, if there´s any trend in either direction today, you should probably take a look at the towns in the steel areas of Leoben, Bruck an der Mur and Mürzzuschlag. If the SPÖ struggles in their strongholds, they will certainly lose the state to the ÖVP.

KPO is a "reformed" communist party or an old style one?

Old style.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout is expected to be a bit lower than in 2005, when it was 76.5%, but it´s the first election in Styria with postal votes and 6% of eligible voters asked for such a postal vote. That would add about 5% additionally to the turnout figures that will be announced later today.

Turnout is lower today, mostly because of really cold weather (only 5-10°C) and it´s stormy and rainy.

[Tender Branson]

Exit polls in about 5 minutes.

[Tender Branson]

1st Exit Poll (16:00):

38.0% SPÖ
37.5% ÖVP
10.7% FPÖ
 5.2% Greens
 4.6% KPÖ
 3.1% BZÖ
 0.9% Others

[Tender Branson]

Another Exit Poll by SORA for the ORF:

38.3% SPÖ
37.6% ÖVP
10.9% FPÖ
 5.1% Greens
 4.0% KPÖ
 3.2% BZÖ
 0.9% Others

[Tender Branson]

The figures above are already based on 48% of the votes counted.

[Tender Branson]

If it remains this close, we won´t have an end result today - because of the postal votes.

[Tender Branson]

Seats:

23 SPÖ
22 ÖVP
  6 FPÖ
  3 Greens
  2 KPÖ

Majority for SPÖ-FPÖ.

Otherwise majority for SPÖ-ÖVP.

[minionofmidas]

KPO is a "reformed" communist party or an old style one?

Seems to be still as it was in the 70s and 80s, or more so than just about any other western european Communist party anyways - but it would have been very much a "reformed" Communist party then. (It's also quite fringe everywhere except parts of Styria.)

[Tender Branson]

534 of 542 towns are already counted.

Graz and few others will take a bit longer.

[Tender Branson]

New Exit Poll:

38.1% SPÖ
37.9% ÖVP
10.7% FPÖ
  5.2% Greens
  4.2% KPÖ
  3.0% BZÖ
  0.9% Others

[Tender Branson]

Only 4 towns remain to be counted ...

Graz
Rottenmann
Grafendorf
Hirnsdorf

Based on the swings from other districts, I would be surprised if the SPÖ actually remains ahead of the ÖVP when everything is said and done, especially because ÖVP and Greens always do well with the postal votes that are counted next week.

[Tender Branson]

OGM remains the best pollster ...

[Tender Branson]

Graz should be interesting.

In southern Styria, the SPÖ and the ÖVP lost about equally compared with 2005, while in northern Styria, the SPÖ did much worse than the ÖVP. In Graz, the FPÖ should do really well too.

I´m guessing this result for Graz:

31%  (-2) SPÖ
30%  (-1) ÖVP
14% (+9) FPÖ
11%  (nc) Greens
  9%  (-5) KPÖ
  3% (+1) BZÖ
  1%  (-2) Others

[Tender Branson]

The county of Liezen is now fully counted and the SPÖ beats the ÖVP by 5 votes or 40.28% to 40.27% !

[minionofmidas]

Graz should be interesting.

In southern Styria, the SPÖ and the ÖVP lost about equally compared with 2005, while in northern Styria, the SPÖ did much worse than the ÖVP.

Isn't it usually hard-left (north) west versus Conservative east (denser population and thus not as far from the average)?
I know you're talking about swing here, not strength, but a north-south split still sounds odd.

[Tender Branson]

Graz should be interesting.

In southern Styria, the SPÖ and the ÖVP lost about equally compared with 2005, while in northern Styria, the SPÖ did much worse than the ÖVP.

Isn't it usually hard-left (north) west versus Conservative east (denser population and thus not as far from the average)?
I know you're talking about swing here, not strength, but a north-south split still sounds odd.

Take a look at the results map here:

http://derstandard.at/1285042455257/Grafik-zur-Steiermark-Wahl-Alle-Ergebnisse-im-Detail

SPÖ lost by 4-7% in the northern districts (where their strongholds are) and the ÖVP lost more than the SPÖ in their southern and eastern strongholds.

That makes Graz very interesting, because I cannot say who will lose more there ...

[Tender Branson]

SORA now has a new projection:

38.6% SPÖ
37.2% ÖVP
10.9% FPÖ
  5.0% Greens
  4.3% KPÖ
  3.0% BZÖ
  1.0% Others

Which probably means that SORA has already a few Graz precincts for their prediction and therefore the SPÖ will likely have quite a good result in the city.

[minionofmidas]

'kay, that's what happens when you do this purely by memory. The hard-left areas are further east than I would have placed them.

But there really is an odd north-south divide to swings in the ÖVP east.

[Tender Branson]

Why won´t that fu**in town of Hirnsdorf not come in ?

[minionofmidas]

Not enough Hirn?

[Tender Branson]

Graz with 227 of 271 Sprengel counted:

32.8% SPÖ
28.1% ÖVP
12.5% FPÖ
12.4% Greens
  9.7% KPÖ
  3.6% BZÖ
  1.0% CPÖ

[Tender Branson]

Graz is counted:

32.2% SPÖ
28.4% ÖVP
12.8% Greens
12.3% FPÖ
  9.7% KPÖ
  3.6% BZÖ
  1.0% CPÖ

Only Hirnsdorf remains ...

[Tender Branson]

Hirnsdorf now also counted !

The final result of the 2010 Styria State Elections (excl. 63.000 postal votes) is:

38.43%  (-3.31) 235.311 votes - SPÖ (23 seats, -2)
37.14%  (-1.52) 227.388 votes - ÖVP (22 seats, -2)
10.83% (+6.27)   66.304 votes - FPÖ (6 seats, +6)
  5.25% (+0.57)   32.159 votes - Greens (3 seats, nc)
  4.41%  (-1.91)   26.983 votes - KPÖ (2 seats, -2)

  3.00% (+1.28)   18.338 votes - BZÖ
  0.71% (+0.71)     4.372 votes - CPÖ
  0.23% (+0.23)     1.424 votes - PUMA

Total eligible voters: 966.900
Total votes cast: 620.538
Total invalid votes: 8.259
Total valid votes: 612.279
Turnout: 64.18% (-11.37)