The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...

[Tender Branson]

St. Pölten has voted and the results are:

44.501 eligible voters
25.816 votes were cast (Turnout: 58%)
25.293 votes were valid

14.357 votes - 56.8% - SPÖ
  6.396 votes - 25.3% - ÖVP
  2.708 votes - 10.7% - FPÖ
  1.235 votes -   4.9% - Greens
     299 votes -   1.2% - Wir für St. Pölten
     175 votes -   0.7% - Bürgerliste - Für St. Pölten
     123 votes -   0.5% - CPÖ

[Tender Branson]

The public opinion institute SORA that used to conduct exit polls and analysis for Austrian elections in the past 20 years, has filed for bankruptcy today:

http://www.wirtschaftsblatt.at/home/oesterreich/branchen/sora-schlittert-in-die-insolvenz-479310/index.do

[Jens]

St. Pölten has voted and the results are:

44.501 eligible voters
25.816 votes were cast (Turnout: 58%)
25.293 votes were valid

14.357 votes - 56.8% - SPÖ
  6.396 votes - 25.3% - ÖVP
  2.708 votes - 10.7% - FPÖ
  1.235 votes -   4.9% - Greens
     299 votes -   1.2% - Wir für St. Pölten
     175 votes -   0.7% - Bürgerliste - Für St. Pölten
     123 votes -   0.5% - CPÖ

What happened to the Greens?

[Tender Branson]

St. Pölten has voted and the results are:

44.501 eligible voters
25.816 votes were cast (Turnout: 58%)
25.293 votes were valid

14.357 votes - 56.8% - SPÖ
  6.396 votes - 25.3% - ÖVP
  2.708 votes - 10.7% - FPÖ
  1.235 votes -   4.9% - Greens
     299 votes -   1.2% - Wir für St. Pölten
     175 votes -   0.7% - Bürgerliste - Für St. Pölten
     123 votes -   0.5% - CPÖ

What happened to the Greens?

They had a Turkish front-runner. Bradly-effect, you know.

[Jens]

St. Pölten has voted and the results are:

44.501 eligible voters
25.816 votes were cast (Turnout: 58%)
25.293 votes were valid

14.357 votes - 56.8% - SPÖ
  6.396 votes - 25.3% - ÖVP
  2.708 votes - 10.7% - FPÖ
  1.235 votes -   4.9% - Greens
     299 votes -   1.2% - Wir für St. Pölten
     175 votes -   0.7% - Bürgerliste - Für St. Pölten
     123 votes -   0.5% - CPÖ

What happened to the Greens?

They had a Turkish front-runner. Bradly-effect, you know.

We can apparently always count on Austria being worse than Denmark

[Tender Branson]

According to a new Gallup/Ö24 poll, only 17% of Austrians want the monarchy back - while 66% are opposed.

Support is higher in Eastern Austria (Lower Austria, Vienna, Burgenland) with 22% support.

60% of the voters also want a big state funeral for Otto Habsburg, who recently died at 98.

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20110710_OTS0001/oesterreich-17-prozent-wuenschen-sich-kaiser-zurueck

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup/Ö24 poll:

28% (+1) SPÖ
27%  (nc) FPÖ
24% (+1) ÖVP
14%  (-1) Greens
  4%  (nc) BZÖ
  3%  (-1) Others

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20110710_OTS0008/oesterreich-umfrage-spoe-erstmals-wieder-allein-auf-platz-1

[Tender Branson]

New Karmasin Motivforschung poll for the newspaper "Profil":

27% FPÖ
27% SPÖ
23% ÖVP
14% Greens
  6% BZÖ
  3% Others

Direct vote for Chancellor:

22% Werner Faymann (SPÖ)
16% Michael Spindelegger (ÖVP)
15% Heinz-Christian Strache (FPÖ)
  7% Eva Glawischnig (Greens)

http://www.profil.at/articles/1128/560/301940/sonntagsfrage-umfrage-fpoe-27-spoe-27-oevp-23-die-gruenen-14-bzoe-6

New IMAS poll:

27% SPÖ
24% FPÖ
24% ÖVP
14% Greens
  6% BZÖ
  5% Others

http://www.imas.at/content/download/665/3118/version/1/file/18-2011.pdf

[Tender Branson]

New Carinthia poll by the Humaninstitut Klagenfurt:

40% FPK-FPÖ
32% SPÖ
10% ÖVP
  7% Greens
  6% BZÖ
  5% Others

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/681046/Umfrage_FPK-kaeme-derzeit-auf-40-Prozent

[republicanism]

I've been wondering for quite some time now where BZÖ vote comes from today. It is no longer the Carinthian regional party, and the Muslim haters are all with HC Strache now, aren't they?

I don't see what role they can play in Austrian party system.

[Tender Branson]

I've been wondering for quite some time now where BZÖ vote comes from today. It is no longer the Carinthian regional party, and the Muslim haters are all with HC Strache now, aren't they?

I don't see what role they can play in Austrian party system.

I think the BZÖ vote these days comes only from ÖVP/SPÖ voters who are temporarily unsatisfied with the government style.

I think the BZÖ will be unable to mobilize in the 2013 parliamentary elections and fall below the 4% barrier, because most of their current voters will either go back to the ÖVP or SPÖ or even the FPÖ.

In the next state elections, the BZÖ will again fail to get into state parliaments.

That means they will likely exist for another few years like the LIF did and then they will dissolve because of financial problems.

[Tender Branson]

First poll after the Oslo attacks and the expulsion of MP Werner Königshofer from the FPÖ:

Gallup/Ö24 (400 people polled, July 28/29)

28% (+1) SPÖ
26%  (-1) FPÖ
23%  (-1) ÖVP
15% (+1) Greens
  4%  (nc) BZÖ
  4%  (nc) Others

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20110730_OTS0003/oesterreich-umfrage-fpoe-erstmals-wieder-mit-leichtem-minus

[Tender Branson]

New Lower Austria state elections poll by the independent Lower Austria pollster SOZAB:



SOZAB also asked Lower Austrians about other issues:

* 65% would pay more for electricity from renewable energy, if nuclear energy is phased out

* 62% are against abolishing the army draft

* 59% are against the Austrian bailout for Greece

http://kurier.at/nachrichten/niederoesterreich/4065944.php

This means the state has even gone further to the Right in the previous 3 years.

1% Others means support for the CPÖ, BZÖ and KPÖ.

Therefore 70% of Lower Austrians would currently vote for a Center-Right or Far-Right party.

[Tender Branson]

The 16% for the state-FPÖ would also match the result of the 1998 state election, 1 year before the FPÖ placed 2nd with 27% in the Austrian Parliamentary Election of 1999.

[ZuWo]

New Lower Austria state elections poll by the independent Lower Austria pollster SOZAB:



SOZAB also asked Lower Austrians about other issues:

* 65% would pay more for electricity from renewable energy, if nuclear energy is phased out

* 62% are against abolishing the army draft

* 59% are against the Austrian bailout for Greece

http://kurier.at/nachrichten/niederoesterreich/4065944.php

This means the state has even gone further to the Right in the previous 3 years.

1% Others means support for the CPÖ, BZÖ and KPÖ.

Therefore 70% of Lower Austrians would currently vote for a Center-Right or Far-Right party.

Good news for the ÖVP, apparently, since this poll suggests that they're going to retain their majority while they're struggling in national polls.

[Tender Branson]

New Lower Austria state elections poll by the independent Lower Austria pollster SOZAB:



SOZAB also asked Lower Austrians about other issues:

* 65% would pay more for electricity from renewable energy, if nuclear energy is phased out

* 62% are against abolishing the army draft

* 59% are against the Austrian bailout for Greece

http://kurier.at/nachrichten/niederoesterreich/4065944.php

This means the state has even gone further to the Right in the previous 3 years.

1% Others means support for the CPÖ, BZÖ and KPÖ.

Therefore 70% of Lower Austrians would currently vote for a Center-Right or Far-Right party.

Good news for the ÖVP, apparently, since this poll suggests that they're going to retain their majority while they're struggling in national polls.

It will be very important for the Coalition parties (SPÖVP) to get good results in the 2013 state elections.

Before the Parliamentary Elections in September/October 2013, there will be 2 state elections in Lower Austria (probably in March 2013) and in Tyrol (probably in June 2013), in which the ÖVP currently holds huge majorities or pluralities.

The FPÖ is historically not in good shape in these 2 states, but if they manage to get results close to the state election results in the late 90s, it might point to massive losses of the Coalition parties in the fall elections.

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ meanwhile has scandal after scandal:

The AUF, which is the FPÖ Police Union in Austria, has recently sent out a mail titled "Schwerarbeit – Was ist darunter zu verstehen ?" ("Heavy Labor - What does it mean ?").

On 2 pages the AUF argues that police work is "heavy labor" and that therefore they want 6 days of more annual vacation for the police officers and a retirement age starting at 57.

Together with this picture in the mail:



The Mauthausen-Komitee Österreich (MKÖ) knows that the picture is called "Arbeit in der Gießerei" from the Concentration camp survivor Etienne van Ploeg. It's currently in the museum of the KZ Sachsenhausen. You can also clearly see that the dresses of the "workers" are dresses of KZ inmates and you can see a man with a NAZI dress in the background.

Robert Rathammer, AUF-boss, tried to explain the picture:

"It`s a painting from an artist and it has nothing to do with National-Socialism. We got the picture from an Upper Austrian comrade and therefore I think it shows steel workers at the VOEST* plant."

(*The VOEST plant is a big steel plant in Linz, Upper Austria)

http://www.heute.at/news/politik/Blaue-Gewerkschafter-vergleichen-Polizei-Job-mit-KZ-Zwangsarbeit;art422,584327

[Tender Branson]

And the next FPÖ scandal:

Uwe Scheuch, FPK/FPÖ boss in Carinthia, has been found guilty of corruption and bribery today at the court in Klagenfurt.

He has been sentenced to 1.5 years in prison. In 2009, Scheuch wanted money from a Russian business owner to fund the BZÖ/FPK/FPÖ campaigns, in exchange of the Austrian citizenship for this Russian business owner. This telephone call has been recorded then. Scheuch will appeal the ruling, but if found guilty again, he will lose his FPK leadership title and also the title of Vice-Governor of Carinthia.

http://derstandard.at/1311802482732/Part-of-the-game-Uwe-Scheuch-schuldig-gesprochen

[Tender Branson]

Here is a more detailed article about the case:

A controversial right-winger has been sentenced to six months behind bars.



Carinthian Freedom Party (FPK) boss and Deputy Governor of Carinthia Uwe Scheuch said after the trial at the Provincial Court of Klagenfurt yesterday (Tues) he would fight "this utterly wrongful conviction." His lawyer Dieter Böhmdorfer – a former federal Freedom Party (FPÖ) justice minister – informed judge Christian Liebhauser-Karl that his client wanted to appeal the verdict. This means that the sentence of six months in jail with another 12 months on suspension is not legally binding yet.

Liebhauser-Karl – who found Scheuch guilty of unjust enrichment – branded corruption as a "cancerous ulcer that has to be combated." Prosecutors decided to take Scheuch to court after a tape seemed to suggest that he offered political interference in exchange for a donation to his party. A businessman secretly recorded a phone conversation with the former FPÖ MP in 2009.

Weekly magazine News published the tape on which Scheuch told his conversation partner he could help a Russian entrepreneur to Austrian citizenship if the party he was part of at that time "benefited in some way." Scheuch suggested a donation to the Alliance for the Future of Austria (BZÖ) if the Russian businessman decided to invest around five million Euros into projects in the province of Carinthia which were, according to Scheuch, planned and ready to be realised. In the conservation, Scheuch said in English that Austrian citizenship would be "part of the game."

The Provincial High Court of Styria is now set to consider Scheuch’s appeal. A spokeswoman for juridical authorities in Graz explained today a decision could be expected for the end of this year.

Scheuch reiterated today he would not resign from any of his political functions due to the first-instance verdict. The FPK’s partner in the provincial parliament in Klagenfurt has turned its back on the right-wing faction over the court’s decision. Josef Martinz, head of the Carinthian department of the People’s Party (ÖVP) said the coalition was "put on hold" until the appeal court made its decision. The ÖVP’s move means the Carinthian parliament’s other factions could overrule any kind of political plans brought forward by the FPK.

Rolf Holub, head of the Greens in Carinthia, said he appreciated yesterday’s verdict. "It proves that Austria is still a functioning constitutional state," he said. Holub has been heading a special Klagenfurt parliamentary commission investigating the near collapse of former Carinthian provincial bank Hypo Group Alpe Adria (HGAA). Several current and former FPK decision-makers are held responsible for the dismal state the bank was in when the federal government coalition of Social Democrats (SPÖ) and the ÖVP decided to nationalise it in December 2009. Business magazines claimed late FPÖ boss Jörg Haider and other political leaders in the southern province used the bank’s assets to finance spectacular tourism projects and various endeavours they hoped to benefit from themselves. Prosecutors and anti-corruption experts in Austria, Croatia and Germany are still trying to find out who was behind allegedly illicit deals around HGAA.

The SPÖ claimed the court’s decision meant it was "game over" for Scheuch, while federal ÖVP General Secretary Hannes Rauch claimed the former close ally of Haider disqualified himself from being in charge in politics. Most rivals of the former member of the federal parliament (MP) called on him to step down.

Analysts have said the verdict would have a considerable impact on federal politics due to Scheuch’s ties with FPÖ boss Heinz-Christian Strache. The Carinthian politician was the driving force behind last year’s split within the BZÖ. Most members of the Carinthian branch of the BZÖ followed Scheuch when he decided to leave the right-wing party in 2009. Scheuch and his political partners officially founded the FPK the following year and Strache offered a warm "Welcome back!" to his former rival as the right-wingers also agreed to cooperate in the federal parliament.

Political experts were at odds at that time over whether the FPÖ would benefit from the partnership with the ex-BZÖ members. There were also different points of view about what the cooperation would mean for the BZÖ. Carinthia is the stronghold of the party headed by Josef Bucher. However, the BZÖ is extremely weak elsewhere in Austria. It may not make the four per cent hurdle in the upcoming federal ballot. The BZÖ was established by Haider six years ago. It almost failed to enter the federal parliament the following year before sensationally bagging 10.7 per cent in 2008 when Haider fronted its campaign. The infamous right-winger died in a drink-driving crash near Klagenfurt a few weeks after the election.

Strache hoped partnering up with the FPK would boost his own party’s power and influence in Carinthia. Some FPÖ members were highly sceptical about pooling forces with Scheuch’s team, but Strache nevertheless gave the cooperation his thumbs up. Some experts claimed the FPÖ might do better in the next federal vote – which is scheduled for 2013 – because of the FPK. However, they also warned a growing number of voters supporting the political centre would deny it the capability of taking responsibility in federal politics.

Strache made clear at a federal party summit in Graz in April he was willing and ready to become chancellor. The right-winger called on the federal SPÖ-ÖVP coalition to stop "dispossessing" Austrians while millions of Euros were transferred to economically challenged Eurozone member Greece. Strache – whose party is seen as ahead of all of its competitors by many research groups – focused on criticising immigrants over their alleged refusal to integrate in Austria. While not saying a word about Germans, the largest group of immigrants in Austria, the FPÖ boss called on a stop to the immigration of people from "Islam-dominated" countries. Various non-government organisations (NGOs) and left-wing rivals attacked the FPÖ for bluntly linking rising crime rates with increasing immigration activity.

Scheuch always represented the FPÖ’s far-right branch when he was a member of the party. His ideology regarding immigration and integration issues was one of the main reasons behind the surprising reconciliation with Strache and the FPÖ.

Several top-tier BZÖ officials like Ewald Stadler and former chairman Peter Westenthaler are still engaging in campaigns against "mass immigration" while Bucher aims at more modest approaches. The influence of Stadler and Westenthaler was identified as a decisive ground against a partnership between the BZÖ and the Green Party by Eva Glawischnig. The chief of the Greens recently made clear his faction would not form a coalition with the SPÖ and the BZÖ as long as representatives of the far-right like Stadler and Westenthaler had their say in the BZÖ.

Polls have shown that a coalition of these three parties could be possible after the 2013 ballot. A partnership of the SPÖ, the BZÖ and the Greens would force the ÖVP to withdraw to the opposition. The conservative party headed by Foreign Minister Michael Spindelegger has been part of federal coalitions for 25 years. Both the SPÖ and the ÖVP have to brace themselves for immense losses in the next general election, according to experts.

The conviction of Scheuch comes only weeks after ÖVP Member of the European Parliament (MEP) Ernst Strasser stepped down. The ex-interior minister’s alleged willingness to commit corruptive actions was exposed by investigative journalists in March. Reporters of the Sunday Times secretly filmed Strasser when he offered to get active politically in favour of a company in exchange for money.

Strasser – who described himself as a lobbyist in the spoof meetings with the undercover reporters – reportedly demanded 100,000 Euros for his "services" in the European Parliament (EP) in Strasbourg, France. Strasser could be in court for corruption. He denied any wrongdoings. Investigations by Austrian and European Union (EU) investigators are ongoing.

Another high-profile politician who could be prosecuted for corruption is independent MEP Hans-Peter Martin. The EP is set to decide in a few months’ time whether the political immunity of the former journalist and book author would be lifted. Martin is accused of MEP Martin Ehrenhauser, a former political partner, of using around one million Euros of funds his faction received from the state for private means. Martin said he could vote in favour of an abolition of the immunity he enjoyed as MEP himself to prove his innocence.

http://austrianindependent.com/news/Politics/2011-08-03/8624/Scheuch_%27game_over%27_ups_pressure_on_Strache

[Tender Branson]

The right-wingers are finally losing a bit in the latest Market poll for the "Standard":

29% (+2) SPÖ
25%  (-3) FPÖ
25% (+2) ÖVP
12%  (nc) Greens
  6%  (-1) BZÖ
  3%  (nc) Others

http://derstandard.at/1311802846410/Sonntagsfrage-FPOe-faellt-in-Umfrage-deutlich-zurueck

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For the benefit of those that don't follow Austrian politics that closely, the results of the last election:

SPÖ 29.7, ÖVP 25.6, FPÖ 18.0, Greens 9.8, BZÖ 11.0

[Tender Branson]

For the benefit of those that don't follow Austrian politics that closely, the results of the last election:

SPÖ 29.7, ÖVP 25.6, FPÖ 18.0, Greens 9.8, BZÖ 11.0

Slight correction. The final results were:

29.3 SPÖ
26.0 ÖVP
17.5 FPÖ
10.7 BZÖ
10.4 Greens
  2.1 LIF
  1.8 FRITZ
  0.8 KPÖ
  0.7 RETTÖ
  0.6 CPÖ 
  0.1 Others

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For the benefit of those that don't follow Austrian politics that closely, the results of the last election:

SPÖ 29.7, ÖVP 25.6, FPÖ 18.0, Greens 9.8, BZÖ 11.0

Slight correction. The final results were:

29.3 SPÖ
26.0 ÖVP
17.5 FPÖ
10.7 BZÖ
10.4 Greens
  2.1 LIF
  1.8 FRITZ
  0.8 KPÖ
  0.7 RETTÖ
  0.6 CPÖ 
  0.1 Others

Ah, yes; they updated them for the postal votes or something, right? Third time that's caught me out now.

[Tender Branson]

For the benefit of those that don't follow Austrian politics that closely, the results of the last election:

SPÖ 29.7, ÖVP 25.6, FPÖ 18.0, Greens 9.8, BZÖ 11.0

Slight correction. The final results were:

29.3 SPÖ
26.0 ÖVP
17.5 FPÖ
10.7 BZÖ
10.4 Greens
  2.1 LIF
  1.8 FRITZ
  0.8 KPÖ
  0.7 RETTÖ
  0.6 CPÖ 
  0.1 Others

Ah, yes; they updated them for the postal votes or something, right? Third time that's caught me out now.

Yeah, if you click on the left side of the page on the button "Briefwahl (Österreich)", you can see the results of the postal vote alone.

"Wahlkarten (Österreich)" means "absentee ballots", but they were already included in the election night returns.

And "Briefwahl + Wahlkarten" means results of "postal votes and absentee ballots combined".

[Tender Branson]

I´ve also found a new Gallup poll for Ö24, which will be published tomorrow:

28%  (nc) SPÖ
25%  (-1) FPÖ
24% (+1) ÖVP
15%  (nc) Greens
  5% (+1) BZÖ
  3%  (-1) Others

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20110805_OTS0158/oesterreich-umfrage-fpoe-faellt-nach-scheuch-urteil-zurueck